NW Flow Frolicking & Latest Chaser Bitchfest
As the chase seasons slowly begins to wane with June marching onward, I feel abit dejected with the convective void over the Texas Panhandle for much of the year. It's been a tough one for sure. With that being said, I'm quite the happy camper to see Amarillo smack dab in the middle of a Day2 outlook...and on a weekend. :-) However, after being constantly burned this year (I feel like I'm living in North Central TX again! lol!), it is with guarded optimism to be certain.
However, the models are promising a favorable June pattern for the caprock over the next week or so. The upper ridge that has killed this region for the past couple of weeks is advertised to retrograde over the SW parts of the US leaving my stomping grounds under a W/NE flow regime.
At the same time, several frontal boundaries are also advertised to be floating around the area for much of the period ahead with a dryline and surface low making some guest appearences. I'm certain a few outflow boundaries will join the party too. Importantly, we may FINALLY get some decent moisture working up on the caprock for more than 24 hours. Perhaps I can end the chase season with the last half of June being quite active for the TX PH. We shall see. :-)
For tomorrow, the first round kicks off with an advertised impulse coming out of the CO Rockies rounding the top of the ridge into the TX PH. A weak surface boundary will provide some good focus and if the NAM is correct, will be oriented favorably with parallel flow aloft. However, it's also a favorable setup for a strong MCS. The trick of course will be if a storm can remain descreet or dominant enough to put on a show...versus a massive convective melee all at once.
With S to SE low level flow veering sharply to WNW or NW flow aloft, the shear will be incredible as will be storm-relative inflow. Instability will certainly be there for sure. IF....and that's a BIG IF...we can realize enough capping to inhibit one, massive convective bomb, then a more discreet of dominant cell could be a real nasty one with a tornado threat. As is the case with NW flow storms, it would also be a massive gorilla hail producer.
Right now, things are still very much up in the air. I'm certain storms WILL fire though. They WILL be severe. It's close to home and on a Saturday. Therefore, I chase. :-)
And about the latest bitchfest ongoing in the "stormcashing community" regarding live streaming video and the two chasers that got caught in a tornado and thus appeared on several TV programs about it, I've got alot to rant about. But for now, I'll just say that the Stormchaser Police Squad is very active and trying to destroy these two individuals. The "outrage" is tremendous.
As is typical, the chasers being skewered are not protected by the cloak of CFDG...nor have they a high number of posts on Stormtrack....and aren't big name, popular veteren chasers (or friends with somebody who is)....and isn't a "darling" of the "stormchasing community". Had they met any of the above conditions or criteria, it would be a non-issue right now and more like "Wow, guys, awesome video! Glad you are ok." instead of the reaming they are receiving right now. I created a "chaser logic flowchart" to help those who are new to this phenomena understand how things work. I'll create a more neatly detailed chart later down the road. :-)
It's a damned good thing that they didn't have any amber lightbars. ;-) My full rant about might appear down the road after the season is over with and I've got the time. Right now, there is chasing on my "to do" list. :-)
However, the models are promising a favorable June pattern for the caprock over the next week or so. The upper ridge that has killed this region for the past couple of weeks is advertised to retrograde over the SW parts of the US leaving my stomping grounds under a W/NE flow regime.
At the same time, several frontal boundaries are also advertised to be floating around the area for much of the period ahead with a dryline and surface low making some guest appearences. I'm certain a few outflow boundaries will join the party too. Importantly, we may FINALLY get some decent moisture working up on the caprock for more than 24 hours. Perhaps I can end the chase season with the last half of June being quite active for the TX PH. We shall see. :-)
For tomorrow, the first round kicks off with an advertised impulse coming out of the CO Rockies rounding the top of the ridge into the TX PH. A weak surface boundary will provide some good focus and if the NAM is correct, will be oriented favorably with parallel flow aloft. However, it's also a favorable setup for a strong MCS. The trick of course will be if a storm can remain descreet or dominant enough to put on a show...versus a massive convective melee all at once.
With S to SE low level flow veering sharply to WNW or NW flow aloft, the shear will be incredible as will be storm-relative inflow. Instability will certainly be there for sure. IF....and that's a BIG IF...we can realize enough capping to inhibit one, massive convective bomb, then a more discreet of dominant cell could be a real nasty one with a tornado threat. As is the case with NW flow storms, it would also be a massive gorilla hail producer.
Right now, things are still very much up in the air. I'm certain storms WILL fire though. They WILL be severe. It's close to home and on a Saturday. Therefore, I chase. :-)
And about the latest bitchfest ongoing in the "stormcashing community" regarding live streaming video and the two chasers that got caught in a tornado and thus appeared on several TV programs about it, I've got alot to rant about. But for now, I'll just say that the Stormchaser Police Squad is very active and trying to destroy these two individuals. The "outrage" is tremendous.
As is typical, the chasers being skewered are not protected by the cloak of CFDG...nor have they a high number of posts on Stormtrack....and aren't big name, popular veteren chasers (or friends with somebody who is)....and isn't a "darling" of the "stormchasing community". Had they met any of the above conditions or criteria, it would be a non-issue right now and more like "Wow, guys, awesome video! Glad you are ok." instead of the reaming they are receiving right now. I created a "chaser logic flowchart" to help those who are new to this phenomena understand how things work. I'll create a more neatly detailed chart later down the road. :-)
It's a damned good thing that they didn't have any amber lightbars. ;-) My full rant about might appear down the road after the season is over with and I've got the time. Right now, there is chasing on my "to do" list. :-)
posted by Steve Miller TX at 6/13/2008 01:51:00 PM
3 Comments:
As much as I hate MCS storminess, we could sure use a few of them out here right now. Desperately needing the good soaking has taken importance over my need to see a lone storm.
I second that one David. i am putting some serious overtime in with AES working grass fires. I havent had time to chase if I wanted to. Not to mention the fact that Lake Meredith is almost a pond now. Ofcourse if a monster supercell does come plowing through I wont shed any tears as I chase it :)
I wont even bother doing much commenting on the latest flaming on ST. We all know whjat kind of elitist BS is going as as usual. Last year a few "famous" guys get caught in a tornado on "accident" (in good visibility) and are praised for their survival while these guys are being grilled like hot dogs on the 4th of July cause they got caught in the middle of an HP. Everybody knows what kind of joke it really is. Ego tops all else I guess.
Bingo, Jay. It's not what you do, but who you know and/or who you are friends with. Self-policing in the "stormchasing community"? ROFLMAO!!!
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