A Lesson In Forecasting

WELL....not quite the massive outbreak yesterday I thought it would be. I am quite happy to have busted my forecast of the isolated tornadic cells out ahead of the main line. Several did in fact try to form, but were just out ahead of the line and quickly got overtaken or swallowed up.

Kudos to David Drummond for making a very nice forecast on this event. He nailed it.

Nevertheless, this was a significant severe weather event to be sure. Widespread wind damge with the squall line and bowing line segments has been reported. A few tornadoes did pop up with several embedded ones doing some damage which reports are still coming in about. I've seen a few estimated 100mph+ reports of some of the most serious straight-line wind damage.

And as expected, storm motions were as much as 65mph...mostly 45-55mph. That's why I was happy to stay put in Amarillo and not waste my time and precious fuel. There is some value in previous experience with such setups. :-)

And, one of the funniest storm reports I've seen.....

0345PM 06/05/2008
Tstm Wnd Dmg | 4 N Wakeeney | Trego Ks Law Enforcement
Several Power Poles Were Blown Down. Elephants With A Circus Were Spooked By The Thunderstorm And Were Running Loose In Wakeeney.

Seriously, can you imagine sitting there filming a wall cloud or something and this circus elephant comes parading into your shot? Or worse yet, tramples your vehicle? Try explaining that one to the insurance company. :-)


Back to the situation that unfolded today....

This is yet another example of a storm system being TOO strong with massive 700-500mb UVV...strong linear forcing. I'll be going back to study this one to try and better understand when to expect isolated cells out ahead of the main line. My first thoughts are that the mid level jet core was "too tight" and narrow. Anything ahead of the line was on the very strong anti-cyclonic side of the jet streak...thus the capping and subsidence.

I did see some confluence well ahead of the dryline though in norther and central OK which was leading me to believe something would pop slong that confluence zone (reference May 3, 1999 case studies by Rich Thompson and Roger Edwards and others). The better dynamice were up across Nebraska into Iowa where the jet exit region existed creating more diffluence aloft and thus a broader area of convection erupting up there. Again, I've got a little studying to do. :-)

Interestingly, the better, more discreet tornadic cells happened early on WEST of the developing squall line. A nice dry punch at the surface with the mid level jet dynamic nosing into the area popped some persistant tornadic cells in far W KS and the CO border region. These storms earned a blue box. :-) I didn't see that one coming. Chalk up another one for the books.

In any event, I'll be busy getting stuff done in preparation for a possible chase-o-rama in the Panhandle region starting Sunday and into at least the middle part of next week. It's about friggin' time. All of us chasers based up here are sick and tired of hauling but east, north or south to see good storms. If I see another week of strong SW winds and dewpoints in the 20's with the dryline well east into OK, I'm going throw a hissy fit. ;-) This is June, so let the Pahandle come alive.

For the past 3 runs, Sunday has been advertised with an excellent setup around the OK PH area. If it pans out as advertised, then it could very well result in one helluva show locally. Stay tuned for that. I can't wait to have a serious chase closer to home for once. :-)