Texas Panhandle - Poster Child For Cratering Dewpoints

I'm surprised that nobody has noted that this year's extreme lack of supercells that the Panhandle is noted for directly correlates to my 1-year anniversary of moving up here. Furthermore, once I leave North Central Texas, they have one of the most active severe weatehr seasons in recent memory. In fact, they've had more tornadoes than the TX PH. I think that's a first for an entire decade. Stevoid indeed! LOL!!

I took a look at all the upper air soundings yesterday evening. It quickly became apparent why the higher elevation up on the caprock has experienced severe problems with moisture and dewpoints cratering with daytime mixing. There is a large chunk of dry air around 5,000 feet (850mb) across a good chunk of the GOM source region. I'm not sure how extensive this is, but it is large enough to screw us in the PH region where the elevation is 3,000 foot or higher.

As a result, any moisture that makes it up on the caprock is very thin. A little daytime heating along with strong winds to really mix things up and poof....dewpoints crater into the 30's/40's despite S and SE flow. Today is another example of that process and why I'm not optimistic about anything south of KS.

I have theories and hypothesis as to why we are struggling this year. The first is the late season powerful cold fronts that swept out the entire GOM region and into the Caribbean. The amont of dry air in the lower levels was tremendous across most of the North American region. Recovering any deep moisture is a very long process of which I'm not entirely certain as to the details and nuances of such processes.

So, then my thought turns to the lack of significant tropical activity the past couple of years. I wonder if that is a critical process in really juicing up the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere due to abundant tropical convection? I know it does to an extent, but how much of an impact is something I'm curious about.

I hope that any met students out there wanting to do a thesis would jump on this one. :-)

In any event, I'll have to endure yet another 100F day with dewpoints cratering into the 20's-40's. The forecast models are promising a welcome, prolonged change in the weather pattern favorable for the Texas PH region. We are in a very serious drought with Lake Meredith being at an all-time record low in it's 43 year history. For the year, Amarillo is running at 50% of average rainfall. We need rain and storms badly.

If the models are correct, then the low level flow will be out of the SE for an extended period thus bringing in some better moisture over time. With W and NW flow aloft setting up, it's an ideal pattern for storm complexes to migrate from the higher terrain over E CO and NE NM across this region. I hope this will help break the dry cycle we are in. As far as chasing, this type of pattern could have a few good opportunities. Time will tell.

Now to go enjoy a nice, cold glass of iced tea.