The Chaser Human

2245Z UPDATE: Some pretty stout looking storms on radar in far E NM west of Bledsoe, TX (Cochran County). Still not sure if I'll venture that far south, but will at least get the gear in the car and "head that direction"...at least to Canyon. :-) Like a moth to a flame...lol!!

2130z UPDATE: It is quickly looking doubtful as to my venturing out to chase today. Models have done a horrible job in handling the moisture mixing out across the region. The TX PH gets screwed once again...miraculously. Dewpoints in my neck of the woods have cratered to the upper 40's and lower 50's instead of the lower to mid 60's advertised earlier this morning by models. Ugh. I'm not chasing where dewpoint depressions are 40+....not with gas as expensive as it is. Storms will probably pop in the SE NM area and move into the LBB area, but poor mid and upper winds that far south will keep me firmly planted here in Amarillo. I'll continue to monitor things however just in case.

CHASING TODAY(a big IF) & TOMORROW! Check out my "Live Chase Page" where I'll be running a live video stream as well as my GPS position overlayed on radar.

After getting screwed around by a particular production company trying to film "stormchasers" right now, I'm looking forward to chasing today and tomorrow here in the Texas Panhandle...FINALLY!! LOL!! After being dryslotted here in the PH all season long, we are finally getting into a pattern which promises some action for my neck of the woods. Hopefully, I can put an end to the insanity of always racing east to catch up to storms moving away from me well into Oklahoma.

For today, it's a tough call, but the area from Amarillo to Lubbock looks good for today. I'm focusing on the Canyon/Happy area as of now based on model forecasts, surface analysis, SPC mesoanalysis, and latest visible satellite imagery. Lots of moderate CAPE with strong southerly boundary layer flow with WSW flow aloft and some surface convergence looks promising.

The 300mb winds are progged to be rather weak, so anvil level ventilation will be pretty poor resulting in more HPish type storms. However, with dewpoint depressions fairly high, this might not be too bad with more of an LPish type environment. If any storm really gets cranking, it could very easily start propagating southward and going nuts (refer to June 2, 2007). I certainly plan on being there today ready for action. :-)

However, latest surface obs show dewpoints trying to crater abit into the mid and upper 50's which the models didn't forecast. Hopefully this will be the extent of the mix-out and the dewpoints will remain at least 60Td along the I-27 corridor. We shall see, but I'm worried about it quite abit. Storms should still pop and be severe, but the tornado potential will be pretty much zero until sunset and afterwards when the dewpoint depressions start lessening.

Tomorrow is looking even better for the TX PH. A front slides down and becomes stationary parallel to the mean upper flow. Throw in strong boundary layer winds perpendicular to that surface boundary and perhaps a dryline intersection along it, a classic setup conducive to a tornadic supercell or two is certainly there. Model forecast SRH values along the front approach 500 and with moderate instability once again, a nice, big show is in store locally for tomorrow.

I'm itching to get some really good photogenic storms for this year. The last one I got was 5/31 in OK, but it was a frustrating effort to get good pics. That last really good daytime shot was back in April in SW OK. The tornado I caught near Beaver, OK a couple of weeks ago was nice, but then too, frustrating because I couldn't setup for a real good shot of it...but was happy with what I got. The exploding updraft pic from that day was pretty cool too.

So, I'm truly ready for some good stuff to point my lens at and capture. June is often known for some of the most beautiful and sculpted supercells along with incredible night time lightning opportunities. So, I'm optimistic. Wish me luck. :-)