Chasing Today!
UPDATE 2330Z: Well, in what has become a common theme for the TX PH this year, a combination of brutal mixing smashing dewpoints and lack of good low level focus/convergence (dryline fizzled out totally), storms aren't going to pop. IN fact, SW KS is struggling pretty bad which tells me that the cap was, once again, abit stronger than models forecast. Oh well....maybe better luck tomorrow.
UPDATE 2200Z: Cap is holding firm thanks to the all too common mixing out of the dewpoint up on the caprock...10-15 degrees worth of mixing. Models once again miss out on that little important fact. There is still some convergence though as noted on radar analysis, but I am now losing much of the optimism I had earlier today. Will continue to monitor.
UPDATE 1915Z: Starting to focus on an area boundaed by Amarillo, Quitaque, Memphis, McClean, Pampa, Borger, back to Amarillo. Current anaylsis and satellite indicates convergence is being maximized in this area along with a good influx of moisture and backing surface flow. I'm also eyeing the nice dry punch starting to take shape along asn west of I-27. My thinking sis something firing along or more likely just east of I-27 within the target region I mentioned. As a storm or two explodes, they will quickly be moving into a favorable thermodynamic environment along and just off the caprock. Look for initial E movement and a quick transition into right-movers. Based on 300mb profiles, this looks VERY similar to the June 2 event last year. That is...IF the cap can be busted today. Stay tuned!
I'm starting to gain some confidence in an isolated supercell or two busting out from SW KS into the TX PH today. RUC continues to suggest at least moderate dryline convergence sharpening up later this afternoon and evening. Latest surface analysis would correspond with that trend. We will also get some aid in the caprock upslope as well.
The cap is certainly strong though, but the RUC 700mb temp forecast isn't too fierce. I think with enough convergence and maximized insolation, combined with any subtle dryline circulations and the caprock upslope, we will be able to bust it somewhere.
The vertical wind profiles are AWESOME with westerly mid level flow atop S 850mb flow and some backed low level flow with 15-25 knots sustained and gusty at the very least. The RUC is forecast SRH values in excess of 500 today across the eastern half of the PH. With CAPE values popping over 2500 (the RUC exaggerated values are up to 4500), all of the ingredients are there for a very ferocious, isolated tornadic supercell today....if the cap can be busted somewhere.
So, stay tuned! If I chase today, you can follow along on my LIVE CHASE PAGE (link on right).
UPDATE 2200Z: Cap is holding firm thanks to the all too common mixing out of the dewpoint up on the caprock...10-15 degrees worth of mixing. Models once again miss out on that little important fact. There is still some convergence though as noted on radar analysis, but I am now losing much of the optimism I had earlier today. Will continue to monitor.
UPDATE 1915Z: Starting to focus on an area boundaed by Amarillo, Quitaque, Memphis, McClean, Pampa, Borger, back to Amarillo. Current anaylsis and satellite indicates convergence is being maximized in this area along with a good influx of moisture and backing surface flow. I'm also eyeing the nice dry punch starting to take shape along asn west of I-27. My thinking sis something firing along or more likely just east of I-27 within the target region I mentioned. As a storm or two explodes, they will quickly be moving into a favorable thermodynamic environment along and just off the caprock. Look for initial E movement and a quick transition into right-movers. Based on 300mb profiles, this looks VERY similar to the June 2 event last year. That is...IF the cap can be busted today. Stay tuned!
I'm starting to gain some confidence in an isolated supercell or two busting out from SW KS into the TX PH today. RUC continues to suggest at least moderate dryline convergence sharpening up later this afternoon and evening. Latest surface analysis would correspond with that trend. We will also get some aid in the caprock upslope as well.
The cap is certainly strong though, but the RUC 700mb temp forecast isn't too fierce. I think with enough convergence and maximized insolation, combined with any subtle dryline circulations and the caprock upslope, we will be able to bust it somewhere.
The vertical wind profiles are AWESOME with westerly mid level flow atop S 850mb flow and some backed low level flow with 15-25 knots sustained and gusty at the very least. The RUC is forecast SRH values in excess of 500 today across the eastern half of the PH. With CAPE values popping over 2500 (the RUC exaggerated values are up to 4500), all of the ingredients are there for a very ferocious, isolated tornadic supercell today....if the cap can be busted somewhere.
So, stay tuned! If I chase today, you can follow along on my LIVE CHASE PAGE (link on right).
posted by Steve Miller TX at 6/10/2008 12:38:00 PM
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