Welcome, May!
1430z UPDATE: Just when I dis the Oklahoma setup, 12z model data comes in painting a different picture.
What a completely confusing forecast. Current moisture return is sluggish, yet the RUC and NAM are aggressive with spreading upper 60 Tds into OK. I'm still skeptical of this and think 60-63 at peak heating today. We'll see.
Now the NAM is breaking out significant convection in central OK by 00Z. The RUC shows a nice isolated supercell alonjg the Red River and in SE KS by 00Z. The NAM is now totally different with the mid level jet configuration, including a disturbance, which would support the convective signature by 00Z.
The NAM/RUC also aggressively back the 850mb winds prior to 00Z, also aiding in busting the cap. The RUC is stronger with the SRH values in OK. The NAM tries to induce cyclogenesis in NW TX and SW OK by 00Z. The RUC over Kansas. The consensus is falling pressures somewhere in that vicinity resulting in backed boundary layer flow.
So, just what in the hell is going to happen today? I'm a total loss to be honest. This is a significant shift from the pervious model runs...entirely with the upper air specifics. However, the RUC/NAM conensus is tough to argue with...except I still doubt the higher quality moisture return. Regardless, it looks like a show is coming together for OK after all. Rejoice!
I've left my original early morning post intact so I don't accused of altering stuff. ;-)
Today marks the "official" peak month of chase season. In a fitting tribute to the way the season has gone so far, retarded moisture return (SPC actually used "retarded" in their discussion this morning...nice!) will help neuter what otherwise would be a classic setup for 7-course spread of tornadic supercells for hungry chasers everywhere. Not that there won't be one or two doppler warned or even a brief spinup of course.
Oklahoma can forget about any daylight activity as the mid and upper level jet orientations will ensure strong subsidence and capping over the Sooner state. Overnight though, everywhere from OK to Missouri should light up...mainly a big honkin squall line.
So, not the type of segue into May chasers would hope for. Perhaps things will shape up as we move ahead. We've got to get systems to quit squeegie-ing the GOM moisture down to the Caribbean. Right now, the 850mb moisture profiles are terrible for this time of year all across the GOM basin (and in general our region of the northern hemisphere) where we get the needed fuel for healthy, robust supercells. It's going to take some time to juice it up. It reminds me abit of 2006 where the 850mb moisture profiles were horrendous into May. We struggled all season long with shallow moisture that would severely mix out during the day. I certainly hope we can get some major recovery soon.
In any event, after today, things calm down for awhile (another annoying pattern so far this spring). The next upper system has promise for the southern plains next week...whenever it decides to open up from a closed low and move eastward. Right now, models promise Tuesday/Wednesday. We'll see how that shapes up.
What a completely confusing forecast. Current moisture return is sluggish, yet the RUC and NAM are aggressive with spreading upper 60 Tds into OK. I'm still skeptical of this and think 60-63 at peak heating today. We'll see.
Now the NAM is breaking out significant convection in central OK by 00Z. The RUC shows a nice isolated supercell alonjg the Red River and in SE KS by 00Z. The NAM is now totally different with the mid level jet configuration, including a disturbance, which would support the convective signature by 00Z.
The NAM/RUC also aggressively back the 850mb winds prior to 00Z, also aiding in busting the cap. The RUC is stronger with the SRH values in OK. The NAM tries to induce cyclogenesis in NW TX and SW OK by 00Z. The RUC over Kansas. The consensus is falling pressures somewhere in that vicinity resulting in backed boundary layer flow.
So, just what in the hell is going to happen today? I'm a total loss to be honest. This is a significant shift from the pervious model runs...entirely with the upper air specifics. However, the RUC/NAM conensus is tough to argue with...except I still doubt the higher quality moisture return. Regardless, it looks like a show is coming together for OK after all. Rejoice!
I've left my original early morning post intact so I don't accused of altering stuff. ;-)
Today marks the "official" peak month of chase season. In a fitting tribute to the way the season has gone so far, retarded moisture return (SPC actually used "retarded" in their discussion this morning...nice!) will help neuter what otherwise would be a classic setup for 7-course spread of tornadic supercells for hungry chasers everywhere. Not that there won't be one or two doppler warned or even a brief spinup of course.
Oklahoma can forget about any daylight activity as the mid and upper level jet orientations will ensure strong subsidence and capping over the Sooner state. Overnight though, everywhere from OK to Missouri should light up...mainly a big honkin squall line.
So, not the type of segue into May chasers would hope for. Perhaps things will shape up as we move ahead. We've got to get systems to quit squeegie-ing the GOM moisture down to the Caribbean. Right now, the 850mb moisture profiles are terrible for this time of year all across the GOM basin (and in general our region of the northern hemisphere) where we get the needed fuel for healthy, robust supercells. It's going to take some time to juice it up. It reminds me abit of 2006 where the 850mb moisture profiles were horrendous into May. We struggled all season long with shallow moisture that would severely mix out during the day. I certainly hope we can get some major recovery soon.
In any event, after today, things calm down for awhile (another annoying pattern so far this spring). The next upper system has promise for the southern plains next week...whenever it decides to open up from a closed low and move eastward. Right now, models promise Tuesday/Wednesday. We'll see how that shapes up.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 5/01/2008 07:20:00 AM
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