Yesterday & Today
21z UPDATE: Dryline made it to around the HWY 183 corridor in OK where it appears to have stalled. I see two spots I like. Just W or SW of Pratt and in OK around Carnegie/Lawton. I think those are best spots for initiation based on recent surface analysis. I'm eyeing a little Cu in NW TX too, but I believe the cap just too strong. For me, too far east for a worknight. I'll wait and hope for Saturday's setup.
A big, hearty congratz goes out to my bud David Drummond and Graham Butler for a great chase yesterday intercepting two tornadoes. They live-streamed a nice tornado too...and the FIRST EVER live stream of a tornado in the Lubbock media market. Awesome!! Unfortunately, I was committed to a work-related project and wasn't able to cut out until around 4pm. Time and distance prevented me from joining in on the fun. I certainly hope the company understands the depth of my sacrifice and committment to them. :-)
It was a classic setup of a stationary outflow boundary/warm front with strong insolation on either side of it. Throw in some moderate instability and shear and presto...tornadic supercells. There were all sorts of purple polygons (tornado warnings) all along that boundary and warm front along the I-20 corridor. There was some damage in Snyder and around Morgan Mill in Erath county from tornadoes. I've not seen any official NWS reports concerning Snyder, just based of some chase reports. Some gorilla-sized hail up to softballs were reported near Lamesa causing severe damage according to David. The I-20 corridor so far this season has been repeatedly ravaged. Interestingly, DFW gort smacked again by a bow echo and a classic, well-pronounced comma-head vortex. I think they've had more significant severe weather this season than in the past several years.
An interesting thing to note too was the big "daisy cutter" bomb that mother nature dropped around Plainview. This "cold pool" bomb obliterated the atmosphere over the entire TX Panhandle and everything north of Hwy 180 in W TX. Dewpoints went from the 60's to upper 40's as a result thus crushing any hopes for chasing in these areas. That is one of the more extreme "turnovers" in the atmosphere I've seen. Jay and I dropped south west of Happy to see a very elevated storm that didn't last long. At least we had a good dinner in Canyon to offset the sting of missing the fun way further south.
On to today.....it looks like we get to play "pin the dryline on the weathermap". The models (12z RUC/NAM) want to shove it well into west-central Oklahoma by this afternoon and mix out the moisture along it due to a SWerly component of the 850mb winds. At this point, I'm not so sure it will make it that far east.
Upper level energy today will be back over Wyoming/Utah and making a move eastward. Interestingly, the models all show rapid cyclogenesis in the SE CO area late this afternoon...and this makes sense. With pressure falls that far behind the dryline, I find it hard to believe it will mix too far east before putting on the brakes. I would also think the 850mb winds would back pretty quickly too and reduce the moisture mixing out just ahead of it. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds. My thoughts are that the dryline will make it just to the TX/OK border today.
The other problem is a stout cap today with little in the way of upper level energy to help bust it. It looks like a situation where we need strong dryline convergence to get a parcel to bust through. That may indeed happen early on, but with the cyclogenesis ensuing later today further west, it's a classic ingredient for a crawfishing dryline (that meas a retreating dryline for you city folk) right about the time storms might pop. I'm a seasoned veteran when it comes to such scenarios watching many a storm quickly die as it loses the needed boundary layer convergence, in the absence of any notable upper air support, to help sustain it.
So, for me, I will likely stay home today...mainly because of gas being $3.50 or more. It certainly changes the decision equation for chasing setups with a high bust potential. If the scenario looks more favorable to sway my decision to chase, I'll update the blog this afternoon.
Beyond today, Saturday is offering an opportunity with dryline and WNW flow aloft atop SE flow at the surface. If we recover some dewpoints into the middle and upper 50's, this could be an interesting one for some monster hailers and incredible storm structure. Too many details this far out though yet to be resolved.
Next week is up in the air, but mostly looks like a calm period. As we look at entering May, the medium range models have been very consistent for awhile showing a nice, broad upper trough pattern over the western CONUS and a resident dryline sloshing around tornado alley. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
A big, hearty congratz goes out to my bud David Drummond and Graham Butler for a great chase yesterday intercepting two tornadoes. They live-streamed a nice tornado too...and the FIRST EVER live stream of a tornado in the Lubbock media market. Awesome!! Unfortunately, I was committed to a work-related project and wasn't able to cut out until around 4pm. Time and distance prevented me from joining in on the fun. I certainly hope the company understands the depth of my sacrifice and committment to them. :-)
It was a classic setup of a stationary outflow boundary/warm front with strong insolation on either side of it. Throw in some moderate instability and shear and presto...tornadic supercells. There were all sorts of purple polygons (tornado warnings) all along that boundary and warm front along the I-20 corridor. There was some damage in Snyder and around Morgan Mill in Erath county from tornadoes. I've not seen any official NWS reports concerning Snyder, just based of some chase reports. Some gorilla-sized hail up to softballs were reported near Lamesa causing severe damage according to David. The I-20 corridor so far this season has been repeatedly ravaged. Interestingly, DFW gort smacked again by a bow echo and a classic, well-pronounced comma-head vortex. I think they've had more significant severe weather this season than in the past several years.
An interesting thing to note too was the big "daisy cutter" bomb that mother nature dropped around Plainview. This "cold pool" bomb obliterated the atmosphere over the entire TX Panhandle and everything north of Hwy 180 in W TX. Dewpoints went from the 60's to upper 40's as a result thus crushing any hopes for chasing in these areas. That is one of the more extreme "turnovers" in the atmosphere I've seen. Jay and I dropped south west of Happy to see a very elevated storm that didn't last long. At least we had a good dinner in Canyon to offset the sting of missing the fun way further south.
On to today.....it looks like we get to play "pin the dryline on the weathermap". The models (12z RUC/NAM) want to shove it well into west-central Oklahoma by this afternoon and mix out the moisture along it due to a SWerly component of the 850mb winds. At this point, I'm not so sure it will make it that far east.
Upper level energy today will be back over Wyoming/Utah and making a move eastward. Interestingly, the models all show rapid cyclogenesis in the SE CO area late this afternoon...and this makes sense. With pressure falls that far behind the dryline, I find it hard to believe it will mix too far east before putting on the brakes. I would also think the 850mb winds would back pretty quickly too and reduce the moisture mixing out just ahead of it. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds. My thoughts are that the dryline will make it just to the TX/OK border today.
The other problem is a stout cap today with little in the way of upper level energy to help bust it. It looks like a situation where we need strong dryline convergence to get a parcel to bust through. That may indeed happen early on, but with the cyclogenesis ensuing later today further west, it's a classic ingredient for a crawfishing dryline (that meas a retreating dryline for you city folk) right about the time storms might pop. I'm a seasoned veteran when it comes to such scenarios watching many a storm quickly die as it loses the needed boundary layer convergence, in the absence of any notable upper air support, to help sustain it.
So, for me, I will likely stay home today...mainly because of gas being $3.50 or more. It certainly changes the decision equation for chasing setups with a high bust potential. If the scenario looks more favorable to sway my decision to chase, I'll update the blog this afternoon.
Beyond today, Saturday is offering an opportunity with dryline and WNW flow aloft atop SE flow at the surface. If we recover some dewpoints into the middle and upper 50's, this could be an interesting one for some monster hailers and incredible storm structure. Too many details this far out though yet to be resolved.
Next week is up in the air, but mostly looks like a calm period. As we look at entering May, the medium range models have been very consistent for awhile showing a nice, broad upper trough pattern over the western CONUS and a resident dryline sloshing around tornado alley. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/24/2008 08:44:00 AM
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