I Think I'll Mozy On Out
I will be running my LIVE CHASE PAGE today. Check it out!
While not an ideal setup, it is worthy of my making a trip to Lubbock today and watch how this unfolds. The 12z models are indicating a little more sluggish moisture return today and one of those "just in time" setups. The problem is...will it be before or after sunset?
Storms will fire first along the front plowing into the TX PH. Other storms will fire further south along a weak dryline, but how far south and when are the questions. The thermodynamics are by far better by 00Z from Lubbock S and SE of there where lower to upper 50Td will exist. So, storms will have to fire that far south to really get my attention. But, will they fire while the sun is still up?
Once they do, it appears the whole area of the PH, W and NW TX will really blossom as the upper energy rolls in from about 00Z onwards. By that time, better moisture will be in place and certainly some severe storms as a result. I just hope to catch something during daylight hours.
If something can pop during non-vampire-friendly hours, then the westerly mid level flow atop S/SE boundary layer flow and a NW/SE oriented moisture and instability axis would encourage some devient movers.
So, a target? The 12z RUC is pegging Lubbock to Midland initially and 100-200 miles or so east of there for the best dynamics with a couple of big storms by 00Z from LBB to MAF. The NAM keeps storms north of LBB through 00z in an unfavorable thermodynamic environment. Although the RUC has been horrendous this year with precip forecasts, I have to go where there are better dynamics. So, until things become more apparent regarding moisture return and potential initiation, Lubbock makes sense at this point to go and hang out.
While not an ideal setup, it is worthy of my making a trip to Lubbock today and watch how this unfolds. The 12z models are indicating a little more sluggish moisture return today and one of those "just in time" setups. The problem is...will it be before or after sunset?
Storms will fire first along the front plowing into the TX PH. Other storms will fire further south along a weak dryline, but how far south and when are the questions. The thermodynamics are by far better by 00Z from Lubbock S and SE of there where lower to upper 50Td will exist. So, storms will have to fire that far south to really get my attention. But, will they fire while the sun is still up?
Once they do, it appears the whole area of the PH, W and NW TX will really blossom as the upper energy rolls in from about 00Z onwards. By that time, better moisture will be in place and certainly some severe storms as a result. I just hope to catch something during daylight hours.
If something can pop during non-vampire-friendly hours, then the westerly mid level flow atop S/SE boundary layer flow and a NW/SE oriented moisture and instability axis would encourage some devient movers.
So, a target? The 12z RUC is pegging Lubbock to Midland initially and 100-200 miles or so east of there for the best dynamics with a couple of big storms by 00Z from LBB to MAF. The NAM keeps storms north of LBB through 00z in an unfavorable thermodynamic environment. Although the RUC has been horrendous this year with precip forecasts, I have to go where there are better dynamics. So, until things become more apparent regarding moisture return and potential initiation, Lubbock makes sense at this point to go and hang out.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/26/2008 09:30:00 AM
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