A Saturday Chase? Finally?
Well, glad I stayed home yesterday as I see I didn't miss much. LOL!! That was a brutal supercell up along I-70 yesterday and last night. I watched it along with Kory Hartman's streaming video which was a great way to spend an evening while working on a project. Anything south of I-70 remained firmly capped as the dryline, in my opinion and as I mentioned yesterday, just didn't have the "oomph" to punch the cap. I saw some Cu trying to go up near Pratt and in SW OK, but the attempt was pretty pitiful. The 850mb winds remained abit too veered for too long. So, on to tomorrow.
Latest 12z models indicate a decent potential for tomorrow. As to exactly where, that's anybody's guess right now. The main thing for now is that models are a tad more aggressive with return flow and dewpoints into the upper 50's and touching on 60. This isn't bad considering the surface temperatures are forecast to remain below 80F.
The veering profiles should be pretty awesome with SE low level flow quickly veering to SW and W at 700mb and 500mb respectively. SRH values should be 200+. A dryline is forecast to setup along the I-27 corridor down into SW TX. There is some indication that a weak warm front sill exist around the region anywhere from I-20 northward to the NW TX are with the GFS showing it further south...likely owing to it's 18Z precip breaking out there. The NAM breaks out precip later. Both models showing pretty good areal coverage of precip, so storms will definitely form and like a couple of days ago, could lay down a boundary to work with.
One place I would not want to play is the TX PH because of the cold front forecast to plunge south. The upper level pattern supports this idea, so I'm not considering that as a play...plus the thermodynamics just aren't that good compared to further south.
It's Saturday and I'm going to take full advantage of it and chase. I'm thinking it could be a sleeper event until the first TOR goes off. My thoughts at this time are Lubbock to San Angelo as the general target area simply because of so many variances....including moisture return. A good, hearty analysis in the morning over grits, eggs, bacon and coffee will definitely be in order before I apply for a line of credit to afford the gas to drive down there. :-) More in the morning.
Latest 12z models indicate a decent potential for tomorrow. As to exactly where, that's anybody's guess right now. The main thing for now is that models are a tad more aggressive with return flow and dewpoints into the upper 50's and touching on 60. This isn't bad considering the surface temperatures are forecast to remain below 80F.
The veering profiles should be pretty awesome with SE low level flow quickly veering to SW and W at 700mb and 500mb respectively. SRH values should be 200+. A dryline is forecast to setup along the I-27 corridor down into SW TX. There is some indication that a weak warm front sill exist around the region anywhere from I-20 northward to the NW TX are with the GFS showing it further south...likely owing to it's 18Z precip breaking out there. The NAM breaks out precip later. Both models showing pretty good areal coverage of precip, so storms will definitely form and like a couple of days ago, could lay down a boundary to work with.
One place I would not want to play is the TX PH because of the cold front forecast to plunge south. The upper level pattern supports this idea, so I'm not considering that as a play...plus the thermodynamics just aren't that good compared to further south.
It's Saturday and I'm going to take full advantage of it and chase. I'm thinking it could be a sleeper event until the first TOR goes off. My thoughts at this time are Lubbock to San Angelo as the general target area simply because of so many variances....including moisture return. A good, hearty analysis in the morning over grits, eggs, bacon and coffee will definitely be in order before I apply for a line of credit to afford the gas to drive down there. :-) More in the morning.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/25/2008 10:52:00 AM
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