A Caprock Humdinger
2030z UPDATE: The entire atmosphere north of Hwy 180 (south of LBB) has been smacked hard today. I watch and drool and cry as the tornadic supercells along the OFB on Hwy 180 march along...and I sit here in Amarillo. Dewpoints here and Hereford are in the upper 40's with 50's pretty common. It looks like hailers for my neck of the woods this go 'round. So, I'm not going to be in a hurry to get out of here nor make a long trip. There is still the smallest window of opportunity for a chase, but it's pretty slim. $3.50 gas here in Amarillo today makes it a easy decision to hang close to home given the situation.
1730Z UPDATE: Pretty messy out there. But, it's quite obvious that the area south of Lubbock along and just north of I-20 is the play of the day. Nice OB and prime, virgin airmass should result in some real beasts and tornadic supercells. Unfortunately for me, I'm committed to a client project and absolutely cannot hit the road until about 4pm. That sucks because the whole I-27 corridor region has been smacked by ongoing precip. Surface temp readings are in the upper 50's which will advect into the sunnier regions of the W TX PH and E NM. However, enough instability with such crazy veering profiles doesn't put that area closer to home out of play entirely. I will be out, but just closer to home. Wish me luck.
It's a fixin' to storm. Get granny ready for a run to the cellar. Makes sure there's plenty of vittles in there and candles too. Ma Nature is coming to the caprock today to unleash her fury upon the reddened earth dotted with pumpjacks and jackrabbits.
For this stormchaser, the maiden chase on the caprock is akin to an official ribbon cutting ceremony complete with all of the pomp and circumstance....and good BBQ :-) I just hope it pans out and not get washed out by extensive precip.
So far this morning, the precip has been practically nion-existant except along the RR Valley in SW OK along a warn front there. Said warm front blends into the area along I-20 near Midland. The million dollar question for today is where it will end up...AND when/where/how much precip we are going to get today in advance of the big show. It is apparent that the lead impulse is already in S NM, so the precip/grunge fest is about to ensue later this morning. RUC forecast is pretty consistent with the 00Z NAM and depicts an area W and SW of Lubbock to remain unmolested and heavy prcip N and NE of Lubbock. I've got nothing else to go with, so I'll bite.
That makes me think the precip-induced warm front will get as far north as Lubbock today. Thus, the best warm sector setup . However, the current warm front or a secondary one will translate/evolve over the PH too according to the RUC forecast. This makes some sense owing to the current position over the RR Valley. The only problem with the PH is the threat for widespread convection severely working over the atmosphere. But, if the dryline hangs further west by the TX/NM border, there might be enough insolation to make the W portions of the PH an interesting play.
After some elevated hailers early today, the second round could prove to be a pretty vicious one with monster hail and a few tornadoes...particularly along the warm front or any boundaries present. The 0-3km veering profiles and SRH will be quite strong and impressive. Look for some beautifully sculpted storms too.
So, off to work I go. There's still LOTS of detailed variables to play out today of the type models really can't resolve. Granny is eyeing this one though with a bit of suspicion. ;-)
I'll be out there unless it really goes to crap. Follow along on my LIVE CHASE PAGE which I've gotten spiffied up abit. It's still not perfect, but works pretty darned well in tests. I'm runing a stable GPS now, so my position should be pretty accurate and reliable. The live streaming video should be working great too as I'm running the strongest cellular amp available.
1730Z UPDATE: Pretty messy out there. But, it's quite obvious that the area south of Lubbock along and just north of I-20 is the play of the day. Nice OB and prime, virgin airmass should result in some real beasts and tornadic supercells. Unfortunately for me, I'm committed to a client project and absolutely cannot hit the road until about 4pm. That sucks because the whole I-27 corridor region has been smacked by ongoing precip. Surface temp readings are in the upper 50's which will advect into the sunnier regions of the W TX PH and E NM. However, enough instability with such crazy veering profiles doesn't put that area closer to home out of play entirely. I will be out, but just closer to home. Wish me luck.
It's a fixin' to storm. Get granny ready for a run to the cellar. Makes sure there's plenty of vittles in there and candles too. Ma Nature is coming to the caprock today to unleash her fury upon the reddened earth dotted with pumpjacks and jackrabbits.
For this stormchaser, the maiden chase on the caprock is akin to an official ribbon cutting ceremony complete with all of the pomp and circumstance....and good BBQ :-) I just hope it pans out and not get washed out by extensive precip.
So far this morning, the precip has been practically nion-existant except along the RR Valley in SW OK along a warn front there. Said warm front blends into the area along I-20 near Midland. The million dollar question for today is where it will end up...AND when/where/how much precip we are going to get today in advance of the big show. It is apparent that the lead impulse is already in S NM, so the precip/grunge fest is about to ensue later this morning. RUC forecast is pretty consistent with the 00Z NAM and depicts an area W and SW of Lubbock to remain unmolested and heavy prcip N and NE of Lubbock. I've got nothing else to go with, so I'll bite.
That makes me think the precip-induced warm front will get as far north as Lubbock today. Thus, the best warm sector setup . However, the current warm front or a secondary one will translate/evolve over the PH too according to the RUC forecast. This makes some sense owing to the current position over the RR Valley. The only problem with the PH is the threat for widespread convection severely working over the atmosphere. But, if the dryline hangs further west by the TX/NM border, there might be enough insolation to make the W portions of the PH an interesting play.
After some elevated hailers early today, the second round could prove to be a pretty vicious one with monster hail and a few tornadoes...particularly along the warm front or any boundaries present. The 0-3km veering profiles and SRH will be quite strong and impressive. Look for some beautifully sculpted storms too.
So, off to work I go. There's still LOTS of detailed variables to play out today of the type models really can't resolve. Granny is eyeing this one though with a bit of suspicion. ;-)
I'll be out there unless it really goes to crap. Follow along on my LIVE CHASE PAGE which I've gotten spiffied up abit. It's still not perfect, but works pretty darned well in tests. I'm runing a stable GPS now, so my position should be pretty accurate and reliable. The live streaming video should be working great too as I'm running the strongest cellular amp available.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/23/2008 07:30:00 AM
4 Comments:
So much for SW of LBB being unmolested...lol
Storms firing from I-20 up through Seminole and out to Roswell this morning moving NE. Our best hope is this stuff moves off quickly and allows clearing and heating around LBB so storms can fire again late this afternoon and move NE into very nice conditions for tornadic cells. Think we wil be playing the area from I-27 east and Childress south to Paducah, aspermont, matador, etc....alot of things still to fall in place before we can choose our target. this mornings stuff may change our target big time.
Hopefully work wont keep ya too late. I am ready to get on the road dude!!!! Would love to say this is our 1st caprock chase but have the feeliong most of it will be just off the caprock to the east.
Any day I wake up to a flying eagle 30 miles southeast of me on radar had GOT to be a good day!
Y'all all be safe. Bag one (or two) for me, will ya? :O)
At least David bagged a couple for you. I stayed up here where it was safe in Amarillo. I'm beginning to get that Stevoid complex again.
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