Forecast Ramblings & New Blogs

Thursday continues to look complex with the latest 12z model runs. Notably, there is a trend with the models in slowing and strengthening this upper system. That trend will be interesting to watch over the next few runs.

It looks like a pretty good severe weather event to be sure for the eastern part of the plains with many modes of severe weather...mostly squall line stuff. The better vertical wind profiles are up in Iowa, but instabilities are almost nil. Closer to the southern plains, everything looks more like a linear type of event with line segments evolving into a squall after dark.

However, I am liking the southern portion of the action around the Red River Valley where westerly mid level flow and a nealy-stationary dryline along with moderate instability would present the best opportunity for an isolated supercell in an environment favoring some deviant movement. If the model trends continue, then the area I would be interested in would shift into North Central Texas. Stay tuned.

Further ahead, I'm actually much more excited about Sunday's potential in SW TX. More on that down the road since that is still a long ways off.

I'm adding some blogs to the list on the right. Be sure to take a look at them as they have received Tailchaser Seal Of Approval....for whatever that's worth....about as much as the AMS Seal Of Approval. ;-). If you aren't on there, let me know.