Pin The Tail On The Dryline
UPDATE 1930Z: It looks like the dryline indeed will hold up along the edge of the caprock. Latest model guidance and the experts at the SPC indicate this. They issued a red box which it's western edge is pretty close to Amarillo. Visible satellite indicates stuff bubbling up nicely already. I just hope I don't mis the show by getting out late. But, the chase is afoot. :-)
MONITOR MY CHASE ON MY LIVE CHASE PAGE!!
One thing I'll remember about 2008 is the dryline always being well east of the Texas Panhandle. If it's not that, it's the warm fronts and outflow boundaries well south along the I-20 corridor. Al of these scenarios make it impossible to chase on workdays. Today is no exception. I'm hopeful that June will actually live up to it's reputation in the TX PH.
The models want to surge the dryline to near the TX/OK border late this afternoon. Leaving Amarillo at 5pm makes that distance a nearly impossible feat. Hopefully before long, some things will eventually fall together so that I'm not tied to a rigid "corporate factory" schedule anymore.
Anyway, latest noon surface obs show surface winds starting to back right along he edge of the Caprock. Maybe...just maybe...this is a sign that the dryline might not mix as far east as progged by the models. With such a big system over the western CONUS and strong surface low developing near Denver, it just doesn't make alot of sense to me that the dryline would be in a hurry to rush so far east.
However, just like the child's game of "pin the tail on the donkey", I too am blindfolded trying to pin the dryline on the map. :-) My gut says that the dryline won't mix off the caprock thus making it an easier intercept from Amarillo. On the otherhand, all of the models are in agreement in mixing it further east. We shall see. :-)
So, I'm in hourly monitoring mode with all of the gear in the car ready to go with a full tank of gas. When the prison walls are lowered at 5pm, I'll hit the road and try to do what I can to find a nice, juicy updraft with my name on it. As usual, I'll have things running on my live chase page (link to right).
Fortunately, I'm looking at 4 days ahead of me where I can free myself from the corporate shackles and go wherever I want to...whenever I want to. I hope to be able to say that for the 2009 season. :-)
One thing I'll remember about 2008 is the dryline always being well east of the Texas Panhandle. If it's not that, it's the warm fronts and outflow boundaries well south along the I-20 corridor. Al of these scenarios make it impossible to chase on workdays. Today is no exception. I'm hopeful that June will actually live up to it's reputation in the TX PH.
The models want to surge the dryline to near the TX/OK border late this afternoon. Leaving Amarillo at 5pm makes that distance a nearly impossible feat. Hopefully before long, some things will eventually fall together so that I'm not tied to a rigid "corporate factory" schedule anymore.
Anyway, latest noon surface obs show surface winds starting to back right along he edge of the Caprock. Maybe...just maybe...this is a sign that the dryline might not mix as far east as progged by the models. With such a big system over the western CONUS and strong surface low developing near Denver, it just doesn't make alot of sense to me that the dryline would be in a hurry to rush so far east.
However, just like the child's game of "pin the tail on the donkey", I too am blindfolded trying to pin the dryline on the map. :-) My gut says that the dryline won't mix off the caprock thus making it an easier intercept from Amarillo. On the otherhand, all of the models are in agreement in mixing it further east. We shall see. :-)
So, I'm in hourly monitoring mode with all of the gear in the car ready to go with a full tank of gas. When the prison walls are lowered at 5pm, I'll hit the road and try to do what I can to find a nice, juicy updraft with my name on it. As usual, I'll have things running on my live chase page (link to right).
Fortunately, I'm looking at 4 days ahead of me where I can free myself from the corporate shackles and go wherever I want to...whenever I want to. I hope to be able to say that for the 2009 season. :-)
posted by Steve Miller TX at 5/22/2008 12:16:00 PM
1 Comments:
SPC got 220 damage report mostly from Colorado and Kansas.I was watching this possible tornado outbreak for quite sometime..Finally we got one..Chances of tornado in same area are possible today..in NE Colorado into SW Nebraska,Kansas and most severe might be in Oklahoma by night time..some good spots to chase again..:)
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