OK Redemption, Tilt, Jawbone, Crystal Ball
What a crazy event yesterday in OK and SE KS. The 12z models actually were pretty much right on with the event. I took a more pessimistic outlook intitially because of the model performances so far this season along with all of the diagnostic processes I know to go through prior to an event.
The biggest question was the quality and depth of moisture return. The sounding the prior evening and morning of along the TX coastal areas showed alot of dry air in the boundary layer. Time and time again, I've seen this result in a thin layer of moisture advecting north only to get scoured out with daytime mixing..especially with any veering of the 850mb winds which there were plenty of. When, as a chaser, you get slapped around a few times by similar setups, you tend to wise up. :-)
However, I believe that deep moisture convergence and backing of the boundary layer flow to the S and SE by about 21z helped moisten up the lower levels of the atmosphere combined with some broad ascent. I also believe that evapotranspiration played an important role as well as the low level flow trajectory originated over some very green and moist terrain east of I-35. The 00Z OUN sounding from yesterday indicated a nice, deep moisture layer up to about 800mb. This resulted in explosive CAPE profiles on that sounding of 4500-5000 j/kg and LI indices of -10 to -13.
In fact, the upper air configuration and surface features reminded me alot of May 3, 1999. It started off looking alot like that as several tornadic supercells quickly erupted along the I-35 corridor along and north of I-40. The ones that were sustained looked familiar too. Had we more juice to work with (70Td) and a tighter jet streak, we could have seen a similar repeat. Some of the post-sunset video I watched on the OKC stations' chasers was stunning with some serious tornadoes.
In any event, quite a few chasers were able to grab some spectacular images...the best so far this year as a whole. Check them out:
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=16298
On to other news, I broke down and seriously upgraded my cheapo cell phone. I was eligable for an upgrade, so I did. I'm now the proud owner (or slave) of AT&T's "Tilt". I'm in need for better communication on the road including emails and text messaging. Since my fat thumbs don't fare well on the Blackberry type keyboards, the Tilt's slide-out QWERTY keyboard was perfect. Plus, it's got alot of nice PDA features too that I really could use to get better organized. I'm not going to use the stuff like GPS, this is mainly for my fat thumbs to do emails and the personal organization stuff. ;-) For my friends and associates out there that grew weary of trying to hold a conversation because of my junk phone, this is a big step up in signal and voice quality.
As long as I'm taking a leap in technology, I've also got a Jawbone bluetooth headset on the way too. The reviews on it were favorable...in particular background, wind and road noise. I'm looking forward to using it out in the field soon...hopefully next week!!
Speaking of which, the latest models are promising a chase-o-rama next week depending on the evolution of the upper air pattern. But so far, the models all have been pretty consistant the past few runs. The question in my mind is the evolution of the upper air system. The models keep trying to close it off and quickly open it back up. My experience is that these types of systems at that particular latitude are often alot more sluggish than models forecast them to be. So, it will be fun to watch. In any event, chasing prospects appears to finally make a grand return to the Caprock and the Panhandles....my stomping grounds.
So, I'm pretty pumped about that. The action could start up Monday, but I'm thinking Tuesday and Wednesday. The crystal ball shows alot of optimism for stormchasers through the middle of May. Let's hope so. The Mays of the past few years have sucked for the most part. But, with the events yesterday, I have hope! Let the chase season erupt in all it's glory! :-)
The biggest question was the quality and depth of moisture return. The sounding the prior evening and morning of along the TX coastal areas showed alot of dry air in the boundary layer. Time and time again, I've seen this result in a thin layer of moisture advecting north only to get scoured out with daytime mixing..especially with any veering of the 850mb winds which there were plenty of. When, as a chaser, you get slapped around a few times by similar setups, you tend to wise up. :-)
However, I believe that deep moisture convergence and backing of the boundary layer flow to the S and SE by about 21z helped moisten up the lower levels of the atmosphere combined with some broad ascent. I also believe that evapotranspiration played an important role as well as the low level flow trajectory originated over some very green and moist terrain east of I-35. The 00Z OUN sounding from yesterday indicated a nice, deep moisture layer up to about 800mb. This resulted in explosive CAPE profiles on that sounding of 4500-5000 j/kg and LI indices of -10 to -13.
In fact, the upper air configuration and surface features reminded me alot of May 3, 1999. It started off looking alot like that as several tornadic supercells quickly erupted along the I-35 corridor along and north of I-40. The ones that were sustained looked familiar too. Had we more juice to work with (70Td) and a tighter jet streak, we could have seen a similar repeat. Some of the post-sunset video I watched on the OKC stations' chasers was stunning with some serious tornadoes.
In any event, quite a few chasers were able to grab some spectacular images...the best so far this year as a whole. Check them out:
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=16298
On to other news, I broke down and seriously upgraded my cheapo cell phone. I was eligable for an upgrade, so I did. I'm now the proud owner (or slave) of AT&T's "Tilt". I'm in need for better communication on the road including emails and text messaging. Since my fat thumbs don't fare well on the Blackberry type keyboards, the Tilt's slide-out QWERTY keyboard was perfect. Plus, it's got alot of nice PDA features too that I really could use to get better organized. I'm not going to use the stuff like GPS, this is mainly for my fat thumbs to do emails and the personal organization stuff. ;-) For my friends and associates out there that grew weary of trying to hold a conversation because of my junk phone, this is a big step up in signal and voice quality.As long as I'm taking a leap in technology, I've also got a Jawbone bluetooth headset on the way too. The reviews on it were favorable...in particular background, wind and road noise. I'm looking forward to using it out in the field soon...hopefully next week!!
Speaking of which, the latest models are promising a chase-o-rama next week depending on the evolution of the upper air pattern. But so far, the models all have been pretty consistant the past few runs. The question in my mind is the evolution of the upper air system. The models keep trying to close it off and quickly open it back up. My experience is that these types of systems at that particular latitude are often alot more sluggish than models forecast them to be. So, it will be fun to watch. In any event, chasing prospects appears to finally make a grand return to the Caprock and the Panhandles....my stomping grounds.
So, I'm pretty pumped about that. The action could start up Monday, but I'm thinking Tuesday and Wednesday. The crystal ball shows alot of optimism for stormchasers through the middle of May. Let's hope so. The Mays of the past few years have sucked for the most part. But, with the events yesterday, I have hope! Let the chase season erupt in all it's glory! :-)
posted by Steve Miller TX at 5/02/2008 02:11:00 PM
4 Comments:
Models are going to have a tough time with this next system, as it appears to spend much of it's time over sparse sounding/obs stations.
Hey let me know how that Jawbone works out. Go for a drive, roll the windows down and call me...seriously! I am thinking very seriously about getting one for phoners and that would be a great test.
LOL!! That would be awesome test. I read reviews on the many bluetooth headsets out there until I was sick of reading them. This one seemed to have the best for what we are wanting to use it for.
It's the only one I saw that uses the same noise reduction and cancellation technology that the military uses. The 3-mic system it uses is ingeneous.
The reviews I read did testing in windy and noisy environments and got excellent reviews. In fact, they said people on the other end of the conversation said that they were unaware of any wind or background noise. They said the voice quality was crystal clear.
So, I'm going to put it to the test as soon as I get it. I'll holler at you and then we can do our own review! :-) FYI, I got a new off eBay for about $80 with shipping.
Now if we can get this next upper syystem to cooperate. At least it looks like good rain opportunities for W TX and the PH areas finally!
welcome to tilt-world!
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