Waving The Green Flag (I'm chasing today)
If I;ve said it a hundred times before, I'll say it again....watch my LIVE CHASE PAGE late this afternoon. The link is to your right. :-)
After a glance at the data and recent RUC, I'm going to head E or NE of Amarillo this afternoon to see what I can see. My "target" right now is Arnett, Oklahoma which is SW of Woodward near the TX/OK border. However, I will be closely watching where the mini-triple point sets up as the models nor myself are sure how the rapidly developing surface low over S Colorado and N/NE New Mexico will affect the mesoscale position of the surface features by this afternoon.
I do like the RUC position of surface features as I think they make more sense. I also like that it is trying to pool some 60Td in NW OK, although I think that's abit optimistic. I think mid 50's instead. I also believe that the 1630z SPC outlook isn't positioned correctly...considering how the front is already south of the slight risk into the N TX PH up into S Central KS. It appears to have a pretty good push. I expect they will shift it southward into NW OK at 20z and include the eastern border counties of the Texas Panhandle and the border counties of KS. We'll see.
But, it's safe to say that Amarillo to Woodward will have something pop. The second question is before or after sunset? If the moisture convergence and pooling is deep enough, along with strong insolation, then I think something will pop by 6pm. The surface flow convergence certainly looks strong enough.
I cannot ignore a setup with the mid and upper flow roughly parallel to the surface boundary/front with an approaching upper air system. Sure, the moisture isn't adequate for a sure bet of tornadoes, but I think there is a decent possibility of landspouts. Plus, I'm sure storm structure will be great along with a nice opportunity for some good lightning photography when it gets dark. Plus, there won't be a massive chaser convergence which is an added bonus. I'm not being pissy, just that it's nice to enjoy the storm to yourself every once in awhile without worrying about the stormchaser police monitoring lightbars and antenna counts. :-)
So, check out the live chase page and let me know how it goes this afternoon and evening. And don't be surprised if I totally bust and not see a darned thing either. LOL!! I want to field test a bunch of stuff in anticipation of the chase-o-rama setting up next week.
After a glance at the data and recent RUC, I'm going to head E or NE of Amarillo this afternoon to see what I can see. My "target" right now is Arnett, Oklahoma which is SW of Woodward near the TX/OK border. However, I will be closely watching where the mini-triple point sets up as the models nor myself are sure how the rapidly developing surface low over S Colorado and N/NE New Mexico will affect the mesoscale position of the surface features by this afternoon.
I do like the RUC position of surface features as I think they make more sense. I also like that it is trying to pool some 60Td in NW OK, although I think that's abit optimistic. I think mid 50's instead. I also believe that the 1630z SPC outlook isn't positioned correctly...considering how the front is already south of the slight risk into the N TX PH up into S Central KS. It appears to have a pretty good push. I expect they will shift it southward into NW OK at 20z and include the eastern border counties of the Texas Panhandle and the border counties of KS. We'll see.
But, it's safe to say that Amarillo to Woodward will have something pop. The second question is before or after sunset? If the moisture convergence and pooling is deep enough, along with strong insolation, then I think something will pop by 6pm. The surface flow convergence certainly looks strong enough.
I cannot ignore a setup with the mid and upper flow roughly parallel to the surface boundary/front with an approaching upper air system. Sure, the moisture isn't adequate for a sure bet of tornadoes, but I think there is a decent possibility of landspouts. Plus, I'm sure storm structure will be great along with a nice opportunity for some good lightning photography when it gets dark. Plus, there won't be a massive chaser convergence which is an added bonus. I'm not being pissy, just that it's nice to enjoy the storm to yourself every once in awhile without worrying about the stormchaser police monitoring lightbars and antenna counts. :-)
So, check out the live chase page and let me know how it goes this afternoon and evening. And don't be surprised if I totally bust and not see a darned thing either. LOL!! I want to field test a bunch of stuff in anticipation of the chase-o-rama setting up next week.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/16/2008 12:08:00 PM
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