Chase is on

After much gnashing of teeth, Jay McCoy and I will be heading down towards Childress/Paducah area. Latest model guidance favors this area with triple point and dryline bulge. I think moisture will be pretty thin, so the LCLs will likely be too high for a tornado threat as storms will tend to produce alot of cold outflow. Additionally, the low level inflow may not be very strong. On eother concern will be the southward progress of the front. I'm gambling on strong insolation on both sides of it with the developing surface wave to impede it's progress for a few hours. We shall see. Still, overall dynamics favor rotating storms and nicely sculpted supercells.

I know some are scratching their heads over the target area, but there is a pretty good chunk of energy coming into New Mexico later today and this evening which the NAM model has struggled with until this morning. Kudos to the GFS. It seems they have all caught onto it and the result is a dryline/triple point further west than the initial NAM forecast (and the model-regurgitating forecasters). This energy should aid in storm enhancement as well as locally backing the flow near the triple point. Anywhere from the I-20 corridor to the Red River will have potential through 00Z.

I will be updating on my live chase blog: http://www.texastailchaser.com/tailcaster/

I WILL ALSO BE DOING LIVE STREAMING!!! :-) http://live.severestudios.com/steve.millerTX.asx

Additonal updates on the live chase blog this afternoon.