Chase Day!!!
The End: After blowing my target area too far west and southwest....a long drive just to get to storms from Lubbock....a hydroplaning incident....storms getting ahead of me into central parts of Oklahoma (with tons of people clogging the roads of course there)......and storms at the time high based and mushy looking....and some important business I have in Amarillo in the morning.......I gave up and headed back home. Of course, as soon as I did, the storms started going nuts. LOL!! So, to those that caught tornadoes today, you are welcome. ;-) The season has just started, so I'll have plenty of other opportunities. The winds here are howling 30-40 sustained with higher gusts. Snow will be moving in here in a few hours as a major winter storm gets cranked up. Blizzard warnings are being considered here. Fun stuff!!!
1730Z: Targeting Childress now based on current obs, SPC mesoanalysis and the RUC forecast. Big question is when stuff will pop. Lead impulse has really kicked out faster than I anticipated. Subsidence behind it looks meager with ascent noted on WV not too far away. My gut instinct is that by 2pm, something should fire.
1400Z: Looking things over this morning, it is hard to argue with models and SPC and local forecasts. I look for things to fire on the edge of the caprock and move into NW TX and SW OK.
With the lead vortmax already to the Davis Mountains and moving into SE NM, see now reason why resulting subsidence behind it won't cause the dryline to surge east as forecast. The problem however is that the vortmax is expected to quickly weaken by 00Z. With the big system digging out west causing pressure falls behind the dryline, how far east it will get is a big question mark. Plus, it could "crawfish" westward abit by around 00Z.
Regardless, vortmax energy looks impressive through early to late afternoon. Coupled with the dryline and favorable vertical wind profiles, I expect at least a couple of isolated cells to fire with a good chance of being tornadic. I'd expect the favored area to be between Dickens and Childress with initiation as early as 18z a little further west...wherever the dryline mixes to. Early visible satellite indicates stratus deck is thin with a few clear spots over the target area. Insolation will not be a problem.
Hanging out in Lubbock this morning and perusing data until it is time to head out in a few hours. On a side note, I had a GREAT time yesterday at the severe weather education event yesterday. It was quite the SDS session. :-) I got to meet the mets at Channel 11 thanks to David who also gave me a tour of the studios where I accidentally was on air for a brief second. I've now got 29 seconds of fame left in my life. LOL!! I also got to meet and greet with the NWS folks as well as some Texas Tech grad students. I'll write more later about this cool event.
1730Z: Targeting Childress now based on current obs, SPC mesoanalysis and the RUC forecast. Big question is when stuff will pop. Lead impulse has really kicked out faster than I anticipated. Subsidence behind it looks meager with ascent noted on WV not too far away. My gut instinct is that by 2pm, something should fire.
1400Z: Looking things over this morning, it is hard to argue with models and SPC and local forecasts. I look for things to fire on the edge of the caprock and move into NW TX and SW OK.
With the lead vortmax already to the Davis Mountains and moving into SE NM, see now reason why resulting subsidence behind it won't cause the dryline to surge east as forecast. The problem however is that the vortmax is expected to quickly weaken by 00Z. With the big system digging out west causing pressure falls behind the dryline, how far east it will get is a big question mark. Plus, it could "crawfish" westward abit by around 00Z.
Regardless, vortmax energy looks impressive through early to late afternoon. Coupled with the dryline and favorable vertical wind profiles, I expect at least a couple of isolated cells to fire with a good chance of being tornadic. I'd expect the favored area to be between Dickens and Childress with initiation as early as 18z a little further west...wherever the dryline mixes to. Early visible satellite indicates stratus deck is thin with a few clear spots over the target area. Insolation will not be a problem.
Hanging out in Lubbock this morning and perusing data until it is time to head out in a few hours. On a side note, I had a GREAT time yesterday at the severe weather education event yesterday. It was quite the SDS session. :-) I got to meet the mets at Channel 11 thanks to David who also gave me a tour of the studios where I accidentally was on air for a brief second. I've now got 29 seconds of fame left in my life. LOL!! I also got to meet and greet with the NWS folks as well as some Texas Tech grad students. I'll write more later about this cool event.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 3/02/2008 07:54:00 AM
2 Comments:
Sorry you missed, Stevoid. Maybe next time.
Thanks for the condolences. :-) From what I saw of the storms I had a chance to intercept, I really didn't miss much, fortunately. Give me a west Texas supercell, baby!
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