First Chase Of the Season?
This evening's NAM model is looking abit better for some chasing across SW and W Texas on Sunday. Low to possibly mid 50F dewpoints and temperatures around 70F should make for a favorable dewpoint depression and resultant lower LCLs to take advantage of any low level helicities.
A distinct and fairly potent impulse (the current small upper low over the Baja region) is forecast to kick out across SW and W TX during the day Sunday into North Central Texas by evening. It is my experience that these small, sharp, compact vortmaxes produce some pretty good tornadic storms.
A surface low will develop in response along a cold front moving southward through the Panhandle. As a result, a nice triple point will form with a dryline sharpening up to the south of the low. CAPE is forecast to be 1000 which is marginal, but enough for this setup.
The models have continued to slow up this system slightly and kicking out a stronger impulse. This trend will have to be watched. As it appears this evening, there could be a pretty potent mini-outbreak of tornadoes in Texas. With such a strong mid level impulse, I think there is a good chance for some isolated cells to develop well out ahead of the dryline and cold front deep into the warm sector.
I'll be in Lubbock tomorrow for the SKYWARN festivities. I'll stay over at my folks there and monitor things with the expectation of chasing Sunday. I've about got the chase vehicle all geared up and should get the finishing touches on it tomorrow. Based strictly on this evening's model runs, I'd pick Midland/San Angelo/Lubbock for the target area and emphasize Lamesa. I'm sure that will shift and if the system is even deeper and slower, there might not be any chasing opportunities at all for me Sunday. It wouldn't be the first time Ma Nature fooled the models.
Stay tuned as more data rolls in tomorrow. This looks like the only opportuntiy for maybe a couple of weeks. The models are advertaing a big northern hemisphere cyclone and trough to setup over SE Canada and the NE/E US. That'll sweep all the moisture down to Fidel Castro's bungalow thus smacking down the atmosphere all across North America. However, the crystal ball is showing some signs that mid March could see a favorable shift in the upper air pattern. At some point, spring will kick into gear. It's just a matter of when.
A distinct and fairly potent impulse (the current small upper low over the Baja region) is forecast to kick out across SW and W TX during the day Sunday into North Central Texas by evening. It is my experience that these small, sharp, compact vortmaxes produce some pretty good tornadic storms.
A surface low will develop in response along a cold front moving southward through the Panhandle. As a result, a nice triple point will form with a dryline sharpening up to the south of the low. CAPE is forecast to be 1000 which is marginal, but enough for this setup.
The models have continued to slow up this system slightly and kicking out a stronger impulse. This trend will have to be watched. As it appears this evening, there could be a pretty potent mini-outbreak of tornadoes in Texas. With such a strong mid level impulse, I think there is a good chance for some isolated cells to develop well out ahead of the dryline and cold front deep into the warm sector.
I'll be in Lubbock tomorrow for the SKYWARN festivities. I'll stay over at my folks there and monitor things with the expectation of chasing Sunday. I've about got the chase vehicle all geared up and should get the finishing touches on it tomorrow. Based strictly on this evening's model runs, I'd pick Midland/San Angelo/Lubbock for the target area and emphasize Lamesa. I'm sure that will shift and if the system is even deeper and slower, there might not be any chasing opportunities at all for me Sunday. It wouldn't be the first time Ma Nature fooled the models.
Stay tuned as more data rolls in tomorrow. This looks like the only opportuntiy for maybe a couple of weeks. The models are advertaing a big northern hemisphere cyclone and trough to setup over SE Canada and the NE/E US. That'll sweep all the moisture down to Fidel Castro's bungalow thus smacking down the atmosphere all across North America. However, the crystal ball is showing some signs that mid March could see a favorable shift in the upper air pattern. At some point, spring will kick into gear. It's just a matter of when.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 2/29/2008 10:22:00 PM
2 Comments:
I would love to play the triple point south of the red river. Can somebody say Throckmorton!!!!!
But I am stuck at home since I jhave to work u til noon then ahev to be at the airport at 6:30pm to pick my mom up who is flying back in. GUess she could catch a cab if it looks too good :). I will decide by the 1130 outlook but I say 80/20% I wont be going which means an outbreak. Ofcourse that is tempered by Steve being in the area of convection which should limit storms to basic rainshowers..lol
Let me know if you manage to make it over my way.
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