Octoberfest!

The model runs in the past two days have been amusing to watch. As is typical with vigorous storm systems approaching the left coast, they almost always end up being slower and deeper as they reach the Rockies than the early advertisements. The GFS jumped on this first defying it's peer pressure. It's such a wild and crazy model. ;-) The rest of the gang is catching on to the GFS idea. All of them continue to slow and dig this upper system (I dig it too...ha!) with each consecutive run.

Based on this evening's model consensus, Sunday is looking like a pretty significant severe weather episode for the plains. The most impressive feature is the forecast 500mb profile. As Sunday presses on into the late afternoon, the compact upper trough begins to crank up and lift out taking on a slight negative tilt. The diffluence out over the panhandles into SW Kansas is quite impressive and pretty powerful. The resultant surface reaction is to bomb a surface low somewhere around the W/SW KS area. A stout dryline will sharpen and punch across the area of mid level difflence. Moisture and instability will not be a problem and will be pretty good for October.

This is a classic signature for some pretty vicious storms. With that much energy and linear forcing, we would see a rapid evolution into a very nasty squall line. The southern fringe of everything down into the TX PH into W OK would be best for a tail-end charlie setup and something remaining more discreet for a longer period of time.

But, it's too early to start plotting a target area and dreams of tornadoes on the caprock. :-) As is usual, the models are certain to change. Will the upper system slow even further? Speed up? Deeper? Head to Mexico and dissipate in fear of the Stevoid®? ;-)

Stay tuned!