Suspicious Activity

Hmmmm.....something brewing down there south of Brownsville? It appears to be moving slowly northward and the cloud pattern looks like some good outflow aloft and little shear. Water temps are pretty toasty down there and it is that time of year. Nothing from the NHC yet. This just popped up, so keep an eye on it.

UPDATE: The NHC issued this statement at 7:05 CDT:

LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
1012 MB LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR MONTERREY MEXICO WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO 28N94W. WSR-88D IMAGERY FROM BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS SHOWS WELL DEFINED TURNING IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY
SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY LIES ALOFT WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO NEAR 27N104W AND AN UPPER
HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N92W. A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH IS
JUST S OF MOBILE NEAR 29N88W. THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN QUASI
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS IN THE NE PORTION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE FLOW IN THE
SW PORTION.