Today's Setup
2040Z UPDATE: Ready to head out the door shortly! Some developing Cu out along the NM border are increasing. It won't take long for anything to form to move into a fairly explosive environment. I'll head out W on I-40 to see what I can see while continuing to monitor data. Will update on Tailcaster (link on right)
1915z UPDATE: Taking a quick look at things, I'm really liking the area from about Tulia to Elkhart, KS. In particular, I'm focusing on the area from about Amarillo to Stratford. There, a pronounced dry punch is working into the Dalhart area (where light northerly winds have been for the past couple of hours). A mesolow is definitely there. ALOT of convergence in this area from Dalhart to Amarillo. The problem is lack of moisture as it has been scoured due to SW 850mb flow....and also creating a helluva cap.
However, model forecasts and current analysis indicate backing flow at 850mb now with a good SE component of surface winds from Elkhart/Stratford to Amarillo and east of I-27...where deeper moisture is working in from. Clarendon is now reporting a Td of 63 with a whole slew of lower 60Td south of Amarillo just east of I-27 poised to work up on the caprock per RUC guidance. I see no reason to doubt this based on the backing 850mb flow.
So....can the cap be busted? The RUC is pretty pessimistic about it with a small "dot" near Guymon and nothing at all after 00Z. With 700mb temps of around -11 to -12C, we are going to need some good moisture and convergence to overcome it. Interestingly, Tucumcari has soared to 90F and should continue to climb. Although this is indicative of a stout cap, it might serve to help punch it too as these hot temps clash with the moist air. The RUC has been flip-flopping about convergence towards 00Z, so once again, it's going to be a wild card...wait and see.
I still have some things to take care of, so I best go do them in case the cap gets busted. Right now, I'm giving it a 25% chance of doing so. I'm not optimistic at this point. But, anythng that does pop will be a wild one for sure.
I like alot of the parameters coming together today. But, I'm starting to think that the better dynamics aloft won't arrive until sunset or afterwards. This means marginal mid and upper flow, but still good low level flow and very good vertical veering. Instabilities will be good. However, it certainly looks like an HP fest once storms enter the better moisture. Similar to last week's 5/21 PH event, we might see high based storms form and grow out along the TX/NM border and becoming strongly outflow dominant...thus smacking down other isolated cells that try to form.
However, the RUC keeps trying to setup the dryline closer to I-27 for a good part of the day. I'm discounting this forecast for now due to the forecast surface low forming over NE NM or SE CO. The question is how much moisture can advect with backed flow across the panhandles? I'm not sold yet on an answer to that. It will have to be monitored throughout the day. This will have a huge impact on storm mode and evolution today. One thing in our favor will be a stronger cap down into the PH, but how strong remains to be seen. Perhaps model guidance will give us an idea later this morning. it is still early (7:00 am as I write this).
I have taken the day off, but most of that will be addressing some personal business. So, I have no idea when I'll be able to depart. Probably the earliest would be 3pm...if I'm lucky. My preliminary target idea is Dalhart with an eye SW of Amarillo...perhaps Hereford. I'll narrow this down as the day progresses.
1915z UPDATE: Taking a quick look at things, I'm really liking the area from about Tulia to Elkhart, KS. In particular, I'm focusing on the area from about Amarillo to Stratford. There, a pronounced dry punch is working into the Dalhart area (where light northerly winds have been for the past couple of hours). A mesolow is definitely there. ALOT of convergence in this area from Dalhart to Amarillo. The problem is lack of moisture as it has been scoured due to SW 850mb flow....and also creating a helluva cap.
However, model forecasts and current analysis indicate backing flow at 850mb now with a good SE component of surface winds from Elkhart/Stratford to Amarillo and east of I-27...where deeper moisture is working in from. Clarendon is now reporting a Td of 63 with a whole slew of lower 60Td south of Amarillo just east of I-27 poised to work up on the caprock per RUC guidance. I see no reason to doubt this based on the backing 850mb flow.
So....can the cap be busted? The RUC is pretty pessimistic about it with a small "dot" near Guymon and nothing at all after 00Z. With 700mb temps of around -11 to -12C, we are going to need some good moisture and convergence to overcome it. Interestingly, Tucumcari has soared to 90F and should continue to climb. Although this is indicative of a stout cap, it might serve to help punch it too as these hot temps clash with the moist air. The RUC has been flip-flopping about convergence towards 00Z, so once again, it's going to be a wild card...wait and see.
I still have some things to take care of, so I best go do them in case the cap gets busted. Right now, I'm giving it a 25% chance of doing so. I'm not optimistic at this point. But, anythng that does pop will be a wild one for sure.
I like alot of the parameters coming together today. But, I'm starting to think that the better dynamics aloft won't arrive until sunset or afterwards. This means marginal mid and upper flow, but still good low level flow and very good vertical veering. Instabilities will be good. However, it certainly looks like an HP fest once storms enter the better moisture. Similar to last week's 5/21 PH event, we might see high based storms form and grow out along the TX/NM border and becoming strongly outflow dominant...thus smacking down other isolated cells that try to form.
However, the RUC keeps trying to setup the dryline closer to I-27 for a good part of the day. I'm discounting this forecast for now due to the forecast surface low forming over NE NM or SE CO. The question is how much moisture can advect with backed flow across the panhandles? I'm not sold yet on an answer to that. It will have to be monitored throughout the day. This will have a huge impact on storm mode and evolution today. One thing in our favor will be a stronger cap down into the PH, but how strong remains to be seen. Perhaps model guidance will give us an idea later this morning. it is still early (7:00 am as I write this).
I have taken the day off, but most of that will be addressing some personal business. So, I have no idea when I'll be able to depart. Probably the earliest would be 3pm...if I'm lucky. My preliminary target idea is Dalhart with an eye SW of Amarillo...perhaps Hereford. I'll narrow this down as the day progresses.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 5/29/2007 07:08:00 AM
3 Comments:
Another one bites the dust... you storm killer you! Hey, things are starting to look up for my trip! Woohoo! Happy Dew Dance.
I've done pretty good in killing off storms this year for sure. But before you make fun of me...I notice this huge tropical system moving towards your home just as you prepare to leave. LOL!!
One thing is certain, it looks like you'll have a very buys and enjoyable trip!
>30% shot at a Happy Dew experience, despite my tropical miss... LOL! Hey, if it takes me leaving to get some much needed rain to my area, I will make that sacrifice... I'm just that giving. ;-)
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