Wherefore Art Thou, O Moisture Laden Airmass?

The 12z NAM is at least trending back towards slightly better moisture return for Saturday. I still think Td of 50-55 will be the norm....plenty for some pretty good storms up here on the Caprock. With surface temps progged from around 68-75, LCLs should be in decent shape, but still struggling with higher bases. It really is looking like things fire up in far E NM near the TX border. The NAM wants to bust out some precip ahead of the dryline from the E TX PH down to south of Lubbock (March 28th anybody?) This is also in an area of very sharp diffluence at 300mb. But, unlike March 28th, there is little or no instability that far ahead of the dryline. If we do end up with strong insolation (a big concern of mine), then we might get some weak instability to make storms out ahead of the dryline more appealing.

I spent some time perusing the upper air soundings down to the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico and the Caribbean. It's abit on the dry side down there at 850mb. I did see pretty good sounding out on the Yucatan Peninsula though showing pretty deep and rich moisture. Hopefully that is the vanguard of fixing the moisture problem. soon.

Back to the dryline....the vertical wind profiles look very unidirectional and with such strong and rapid linear forcing, it looks like a classic setup of a squall line erupting all at once with very little if any chance for discrete cells. The entire vertical wind profile is parallel to the dryline. I can't even begin to count the number of times I've been burned by this exact type of setup. Yeah, a couple of embedded tornadic cells are pretty likely, but where exactly is always the biggest problem because you don't have much time to adjust your position to intercept before they go HP and join the squall line.

But, this is still along ways out and I'm trying to get too detailed with a chase forecast at this time. (notes the 2x4 being picked up by others..lol). Based solely on the 12z NAM which is now in line with the 00Z GFS with regards to upper features, I'm expecting I'll be heading towards Midland Saturday morning. That extremely sharp 300mb diffleunce and divergence ejecting just north of there looks too awesome to pass up.

For today, not alot of hope for anything to pop up. The RUC is advertising pretty good convergence in the N TX PH and OK PH later today. We'll see what the next run or two of the RUC says. I'm going to say about a 10% chance of something to pop there. Instability isn't really there, so it would be more of a photo op and slim chance for a landspout....but even then, the 0-3km CAPE looks pitiful at this point. It'll have to be close to home for me today.

Tomorrow however is still looking pretty decent. It's right on the outer fringe range for a worknight chase for me...especially considering I'm thinking I'll be heading to Midland the next morning. W and SW portions of Kansas and far E CO look pretty interesting. I'll look at this closer in the morning.

Sunday might be a pretty good day for E KS down to N TX. In fact, I'm really starting to believe this will be a bigger day for tornadic supercells. It appears moisture won't be an issue. More importantly, you've got westerly flow aloft across a front/dryline. That's always a "big day" maker. Dang it, I might have to come down with a case of chaser flu on Monday. LOL! So, my posse in Tulsa should have some serious action hopefully. I'm getting worried about them. ;-) My bud Glenn Dixon in Denton could be bagging a tornado or two in his own backyard.

It's just good to see an active pattern without the threat of an arctic outbreak behind it. Another big system next week keeps the show going. I'm not liking what the models are hinting at beyond the middle of next week though. More on that down the road. I've got a few buys days ahead of me that involve chasing and not crap like taxes, closing a house, etc. :-)

If you've read through all of THAT, then you deserve a reward. :-) Check out this cool little desktop toy: http://codefromthe70s.org/desktopearth.asp It updates satellite pretty regularly. You've really got play around with the adjustments though to get it to display and update properly. I'm running it on my 'puter at work.