TODAY!!!!

1830Z Update: It appears that indeed things are progressing eastward more. It is definitely out of range at this point. LOL! An isolated cell in Haskall County is now tornadic...so it begins. At least I'll be able to armchair chase later. I thought I might have a chance to catch something near Childress, but that isn't looking likely. Oh well. Good luck to all out there today! I'll catch the next one.

1700Z Update: Swamped at work as I try to get out the door. I compromised and will be coming in Sunday. :-) Anybody trying to call or email me, I'm not ignoring you...just super busy and hectic today. My target area is still the same....focusing more on the "380 Corridor". I also have to have a conference call with my CPA before I finally get down the road. I'm not sure how long that will take. I hate April 15th. I just hope I can get down there in time and I'm starting to fear that I may not. That's ok...not gonna get bent out of shape about it. There are plenty of opportunities in the weeks ahead. :-)

A challenging forecast to say the least. I will start off by saying that I don't think it will be as big of a tornado outbreak as earlier thought. There will still be a few around today and the threat increases very late this evening and overnight down in the eastern half of TX as indicated by SPC. Storms will move into and enounter better instabilities and outrageous SRH values..particularly along the warm front. The main reason for my thinking that it won't be a huge tornado outbreak is lack of strong instabilities today owing to could cover and precip. However, along the warm front, there should be a few tornadic supercells until they move further into stable air and become elevated, but intense, hailers. The question today will be if a storm can root and move along the warm front.

Right now, my thinking is that the warm front sets up around the 380/I-20 corridor which if course is BAD news for the greater DFW area. I'm really concerned and hope that everybody there is on guard. I know alot of people there won't be of course. The level of complacency and ignorant bliss combined with the fact most folks are much more concerned with missing the next episode of "American Idol" than learning of a tornado in the next county is a recipe for disaster and thousands of stories of "it hit without warning". I certainly hope that today is not the day for a harsh reality check. Another HUGE concern is the big race weekend at the Texas Motor Speedway between Fort Worth and Denton. There are tens of thousands of people there and not too many places to seek appropriate shelter out in the middle of a large rural area. Man, that is a truly scary scenario. But, I'm rambling and ranting...so I'll move on.

The latest RUC indicates a surface low reforming rapidly around Childress by 00Z which is also supported by last night's NAM. The cold core aloft moves over that area creating incredible lapse rates and pretty good 0-3km CAPE in a narrow corridor along the warm front. Importantly, a stout dry punch noses into this area impenging on the warm front. The dry slot will have low level lapse rates approaching 10C/km. With the mid level jet forecast over this area, it is the preferred daylight target for me. It's not a perfect cold core setup, but pretty darned close.

My target area? It's kind of broad right now as I wait for further data to see where the surface features setup. I'm picking Childress to Abilene to Weatherford to Wichita Falls back to Childress. I'm leaning towards the NW part of this area closer to the cold core....Paducah to Seymour to Vernon. The trick is getting out of work in time. :-)

More later......