Chase-o-rama
Finally, a little continuous action shaping up. :-) I'm looking forward to getting back into the action. Don't put away your 2x4s just yet. ;-)
Moisture. Yeah. That's going to be an issue. The NAM is abit pessimistic about it through Saturday. I really think it has the right idea. The 850mb moisture has been severely zapped over the entire CONUS and the GOM basin. It's really going to take awhile, perhaps 10 days or more, to recover. In the meantime, this bone dry layer will serve to scour out the returning shallow surface moisture with afternoon heating. I saw far too much of this last year, thank you. ;-) But, there will be enough moisture for severe storms and supercells. Tornado formation will be a bit of a challenge however.
With that major caveat out of the way, I expect to have chase opportunities each day through Saturday and possibly Sunday. Another big storm system is scheduled for next week too, so the active southern stream storm track looks to remain in place. :-)
THURSDAY: I think this is a sleeper day since SPC hasn't hatched the area yet. The NAM advertises the main upper system to eject far enough north to keep away the subsidence. It is throwing a subtle hint out there of a weak impulse coming across the TX PH by late afternoon. Good boundary layer convergence along the dryline and marginal instabilities make for a good setup with pretty darned good 0-3 and 0-6 shear and veering profiles. The 40-50 knot mid level winds will keep storms tame as far as forward speeds. So, I'm thinking there is a decent possibility of an isolated cell or two in the TX PH and/or W TX. Amarillo to Lubbock.
FRIDAY: I think this has a better possibility with good instabilities and low LCLs. Throw in decent dryline convergence and shear/veering...and it makes for a day worth really keeping an eye on. I'm not convinced that the upper wind fields will die over the TX PH and southward, but taking the NAM at face value for now, SW KS looks good....perhaps as far south as Amarillo.
SATURDAY: Everything really comes together for the main event. The NAM really tries to scour the moisture out as the 850mb jet really cranks up thus mixing more of the drier air down. Very strong dynamics aloft come into play from the TX PH and N/NE. That is the obvious area to play. But, it might quickly become a linear event in this area with such strong forcing. I'm tempted to look further south for a tail-end charlie setup and even better veering profiles. Those types of details will of course be more reasonable to try and forecast that morning.
SUNDAY: Departing system may leave abit of subsidence. But, a stationary boundary down around Lubbock/Midland/Abilene. Hints of a possible lead impulse out ahead of the next system make it a day wirht keeping an eye on. I'm not excited about it and plan on hanging out at home.
NEXT WEEK: The next big upper system is poised to slam Texas again. Tuesday looks like the big day, but this system might end up slowing down like all the previous ones making Wednesday the day. The GFS wants to promise better moisture to work with by then...we'll see. I'm thinking the GFS is overdone with it.
Moisture. Yeah. That's going to be an issue. The NAM is abit pessimistic about it through Saturday. I really think it has the right idea. The 850mb moisture has been severely zapped over the entire CONUS and the GOM basin. It's really going to take awhile, perhaps 10 days or more, to recover. In the meantime, this bone dry layer will serve to scour out the returning shallow surface moisture with afternoon heating. I saw far too much of this last year, thank you. ;-) But, there will be enough moisture for severe storms and supercells. Tornado formation will be a bit of a challenge however.
With that major caveat out of the way, I expect to have chase opportunities each day through Saturday and possibly Sunday. Another big storm system is scheduled for next week too, so the active southern stream storm track looks to remain in place. :-)
THURSDAY: I think this is a sleeper day since SPC hasn't hatched the area yet. The NAM advertises the main upper system to eject far enough north to keep away the subsidence. It is throwing a subtle hint out there of a weak impulse coming across the TX PH by late afternoon. Good boundary layer convergence along the dryline and marginal instabilities make for a good setup with pretty darned good 0-3 and 0-6 shear and veering profiles. The 40-50 knot mid level winds will keep storms tame as far as forward speeds. So, I'm thinking there is a decent possibility of an isolated cell or two in the TX PH and/or W TX. Amarillo to Lubbock.
FRIDAY: I think this has a better possibility with good instabilities and low LCLs. Throw in decent dryline convergence and shear/veering...and it makes for a day worth really keeping an eye on. I'm not convinced that the upper wind fields will die over the TX PH and southward, but taking the NAM at face value for now, SW KS looks good....perhaps as far south as Amarillo.
SATURDAY: Everything really comes together for the main event. The NAM really tries to scour the moisture out as the 850mb jet really cranks up thus mixing more of the drier air down. Very strong dynamics aloft come into play from the TX PH and N/NE. That is the obvious area to play. But, it might quickly become a linear event in this area with such strong forcing. I'm tempted to look further south for a tail-end charlie setup and even better veering profiles. Those types of details will of course be more reasonable to try and forecast that morning.
SUNDAY: Departing system may leave abit of subsidence. But, a stationary boundary down around Lubbock/Midland/Abilene. Hints of a possible lead impulse out ahead of the next system make it a day wirht keeping an eye on. I'm not excited about it and plan on hanging out at home.
NEXT WEEK: The next big upper system is poised to slam Texas again. Tuesday looks like the big day, but this system might end up slowing down like all the previous ones making Wednesday the day. The GFS wants to promise better moisture to work with by then...we'll see. I'm thinking the GFS is overdone with it.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/18/2007 01:53:00 PM
12 Comments:
I am not liking the NAM. It has been off this whole year when it comes to moisture. The GFS is doing better but still has the dryline too far east. The european has been handling these setups the best so far this year so i am sticking mostly with it. I expect the dryline west of amarillo saturday and expect a pretty good chase day. I am also worried about them lining out but hope one can fire ahead of the dryline. I do expext a feww tornados saturday. No big outbreak but a few nice chasable storms.
By the way you need to show me how to use this damn camera so i can get me some lightning shots :)
To be honest, even the RUC has been having serious problems on day 1 of an event. It seems worse this year than I've ever seen it. You'd think with advancing scienctific knowlege, the models would get better.
However, I can't ignore the massive dry air at 850mb. It's really pretty bad. I don't see that it even begins to recover at that level until next week. Until then, scouring of the surface moisture is going to be a problem. But, I still think lower to mid 50 dewpoints are likely on Saturday. Some moisture convergence could boost that to upper 50's. With dews in the upper 70's, thats a 20 degree spread. I hope that I am wrong though!! :-) We'll see. Like you said, the models that far out haven't shown much reliability. Regardless of the tornado threat, I'll be out there. An awesome supercell always makes for a good chase for me. :-)
Saturday might be a great day to help you with your camera and lightning shots!! Thursday or Friday could work out too.
48 hours of return moisture before SAT and we already have mid-upper 40s and a few 50s here and there. Surface moisture will NOT be a problem on Sat, mark my words. H85 maybe, but I feel like that will moisten up some too.
OK...I'm gonna hold you guys to that! I'll buy the beer if I'm wrong. :-)
Truthfully, I don't care if it's low 50's or upper 60's. I'm going to be out there! Maybe we'll all finally end up on the same storm together...if I can refrain from an encore performance of "Tactical & Strategic Tornado Evasion" by Steve Miller. LOL!!
Man...I need to get my amber light bars!!! ;-)
I can hook you up on those! I can't wait to piss off a few chasers with all my strobes.
Someone just made a very convincing arguement relating the setup on Sat to the March 28th setup.
Uh Mike...your drooling...
Interesting 00Z run of the NAM. It is trending towards lower 50 dewpoints. But, surface temps are forecast around 70, so we are still below that 20Td depression threshold. I'm not liking the 0-3km veering though...still looks very linear to me pretty rapidly. I hate chasing those scenarios. Ugh. Tough decision.
I actually like down around I-20 where you got 1500 CAPE and a little better potential dewpoint. But, temps in the lower 80's make LCLs pretty high with 55Td. Should be more isolated and photogenic however.
I'd say Friday is by far the better day imo. Very nice setup all around.
At least by Sunday morning, the W GOM basin shows some recovery. I think next week, moisture won't be an issue.
But, tomorrow is another model day. I can't wait to see the surprises then. :-)
The new NAM and GFS back the dryline up to the Tx/NM border as it has been all year. Winds fields actually look better this run with nice turning through 300mb at the border.
Surface moisture wont be that big a deal but the 850 could hurt us some. I still think mid 50's Td and temps in low 70's leave a less than 20 degree depression which is fine for this area. May not be an outbreak like 3-28 but we should get some great sups and a few tornados. If I am wrong i will buy the beer guys. If I am right its on Steve :)
I cant chase Friday. I have AES duty from 8-midnight. But I can go on wxwatch for the city if amarillo is threatened.
Sorry for calling you mike. Blogging late at night with little sleep and trying to respond to way many emails. That would be a "Steve, you are drooling" comment...Sheeesh I need a vacation....
Jay, I'll have my beer mug ready. ;-) I think we'll have some fun Saturday regardless of the moisture issue. The GFS last night was a bit deeper, so a Midland target isn't to wild of an idea. The 12z stuff will certainly help confirm the trend which I think is a little slower and deeper. We'll see. :-)
Rick, I was wondering who you were addressing. LOL!! It sounds like you might need the more extreme SDS therapy compared to Dew. We'll put you in padded armor, stuff you in a barrel which was used in a Niagra Falls stunt, and deploy you into the path of a tornado. ;-) I just hope I can avoid the 2x4 therapy myself this weekend. LOL!!
Where do I sign up? LOLOLOL...
Is there a group rate available? I'm game.
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