Today 4/12 & Armageddon Tomorrow
1400z UPDATE: RUC and new 12z NAM are reflecting my pessimism from this morning. It looks like I'd have to go as far south as Lubbock and probably down to I-20 to really get into the moisture and instability. It looks like more elevated showers in my neck of the woods. Unless something drastically changes for the better, and I don't see that it will, I'm sitting it out here and preparing for tomorrow. Latest NAM offers some pretty interesting solutions with the surface low becoming vetically stacked with the upper low. It is trying hard to setup a cold core event from the SE TX PH along the Red River to Wichita Falls. Alot of attention is also being deflected away from what looks to be a significant winter storm for E CO and KS. I'll update later this afternoon.
I'll be updating through the day and offer my thoughts as the day progresses. As I begin to take the first sip of coffee this morning, I'm looking at surface obs and....well....I need some more coffee. ;-) 50Td is confined to the TX coast with some lower 60's in the southern tip of Brownsville. However, the juicy lower 70's are hovering just offshore.
I'm waiting for the 12z sounding data to get a better idea of the depth of moisture in our source region. However, I'm not optimistic. The models don't really crank up the LLJ out over the source region today....only over Texas. That certainly isn't in our favor. Still, Td near 50 should make it to Lubbock by 00Z with mid and upper 40's in the TX PH. Better moisture return should happen tonight after my bedtime. The 21z RUC forecast correlates nicely with my pessimism. :-)
The other problem is cloud cover over the TX PH expected today. Right now, satellite doesn't look too bad at all, but models are forecasting rapid development of a cirrus shield this afternoon. I'm not convinced of this and even then, should keep the W TX plains around LBB mostly in an area of strong insolation.
In any event, storms should pop on the dryline and move NE/ENE and continually encounter a little better moisture (and I stress "little") and an increasing LLJ. As they interact with the warm front, they will encounter some pretty outrageous helicities with strong veering from 850-500mb. So, even with higher based storms, they should be able to take advantage of that strong veering and start spinning. :-) So at the very least, some very photogenic and beautiful LPs should result. That's good enough for me to burn a little gas. I sure hope that Barney Fife in the SE TX PH is ready to encounter more chasers. Don't be surprised if the Texas National Guard is fully deployed and waiting. LOL!! Ya'll be nice now. ;-)
More on today with 12z data coming in.
FRIDAY: Small dogs should take cover now and stay away from wierdos! LOL!!! That's a reference to the old Mr. Roboto when he made his debut on NWR a few years ago. ;-) I won't waste bandwidth regurgitating the excellent SPC discussions, but I do expect to see a mix of everything "weather" tomorrow...including some wrap-around snows in the N TX PH and NW OK.
The big show appears to be over Central and North Texas where tornadic supercells will erupt ahead of the dryline and particularly along the warm front which may in fact ease across the Red River into OK. I don't think it will make any further progress than that as heavy rains persist across OK reinforcing the cold sector. As a result, the surface low will track along the warm front which of course puts the Red River Valley in a high risk zone for tornadoes.
Given that the SRH values are off the chart and all other parameters being favorable, violent and long-track tornadoes are a pretty darned good bet. Storm motions will be on the fast side, so chasing will be challenging and of course, increses the danger even further for residents as reaction time to warnings will be lessened. I sure hope everybody is taking this seriously in that region.
Further NW, we will be recovering from the MCS overnight and I would expect an outflow boundary stretching along or south of I-20. Where the dryline smacks this would be another area to focus on. Impossible to target that yet as alot depends on the forecast MCS. Regardless, I'm thinking it is going to be tough for anything to fire in NW TX along the dryline until late afternoon when it encroaches into the Wichita Falls/Eastland vicinity.
However, I'm wondering if the models won't slow this thing up even more than they did last night. As has been the trend this year and as often is the case, these developing storm systems almost always end up trending slower. So, the 12z models are going to be pretty revealing in that respect. Part of that is wishcasting as it makes it easier for me to chase. :-)
I hope to be chasing tomorrow. It depends on how much code I get knocked out today and how early I make it in..depends on this evening's activity. I'm pretty certain I'll blow off storms too far away this evening as a result. But, as an SDS patient, anything is possible. ;-)
More today...hope to hear back with others' thoughts. Keep that 2x4 handy. I may need it. LOL!!
I'll be updating through the day and offer my thoughts as the day progresses. As I begin to take the first sip of coffee this morning, I'm looking at surface obs and....well....I need some more coffee. ;-) 50Td is confined to the TX coast with some lower 60's in the southern tip of Brownsville. However, the juicy lower 70's are hovering just offshore.
I'm waiting for the 12z sounding data to get a better idea of the depth of moisture in our source region. However, I'm not optimistic. The models don't really crank up the LLJ out over the source region today....only over Texas. That certainly isn't in our favor. Still, Td near 50 should make it to Lubbock by 00Z with mid and upper 40's in the TX PH. Better moisture return should happen tonight after my bedtime. The 21z RUC forecast correlates nicely with my pessimism. :-)
The other problem is cloud cover over the TX PH expected today. Right now, satellite doesn't look too bad at all, but models are forecasting rapid development of a cirrus shield this afternoon. I'm not convinced of this and even then, should keep the W TX plains around LBB mostly in an area of strong insolation.
In any event, storms should pop on the dryline and move NE/ENE and continually encounter a little better moisture (and I stress "little") and an increasing LLJ. As they interact with the warm front, they will encounter some pretty outrageous helicities with strong veering from 850-500mb. So, even with higher based storms, they should be able to take advantage of that strong veering and start spinning. :-) So at the very least, some very photogenic and beautiful LPs should result. That's good enough for me to burn a little gas. I sure hope that Barney Fife in the SE TX PH is ready to encounter more chasers. Don't be surprised if the Texas National Guard is fully deployed and waiting. LOL!! Ya'll be nice now. ;-)
More on today with 12z data coming in.
FRIDAY: Small dogs should take cover now and stay away from wierdos! LOL!!! That's a reference to the old Mr. Roboto when he made his debut on NWR a few years ago. ;-) I won't waste bandwidth regurgitating the excellent SPC discussions, but I do expect to see a mix of everything "weather" tomorrow...including some wrap-around snows in the N TX PH and NW OK.
The big show appears to be over Central and North Texas where tornadic supercells will erupt ahead of the dryline and particularly along the warm front which may in fact ease across the Red River into OK. I don't think it will make any further progress than that as heavy rains persist across OK reinforcing the cold sector. As a result, the surface low will track along the warm front which of course puts the Red River Valley in a high risk zone for tornadoes.
Given that the SRH values are off the chart and all other parameters being favorable, violent and long-track tornadoes are a pretty darned good bet. Storm motions will be on the fast side, so chasing will be challenging and of course, increses the danger even further for residents as reaction time to warnings will be lessened. I sure hope everybody is taking this seriously in that region.
Further NW, we will be recovering from the MCS overnight and I would expect an outflow boundary stretching along or south of I-20. Where the dryline smacks this would be another area to focus on. Impossible to target that yet as alot depends on the forecast MCS. Regardless, I'm thinking it is going to be tough for anything to fire in NW TX along the dryline until late afternoon when it encroaches into the Wichita Falls/Eastland vicinity.
However, I'm wondering if the models won't slow this thing up even more than they did last night. As has been the trend this year and as often is the case, these developing storm systems almost always end up trending slower. So, the 12z models are going to be pretty revealing in that respect. Part of that is wishcasting as it makes it easier for me to chase. :-)
I hope to be chasing tomorrow. It depends on how much code I get knocked out today and how early I make it in..depends on this evening's activity. I'm pretty certain I'll blow off storms too far away this evening as a result. But, as an SDS patient, anything is possible. ;-)
More today...hope to hear back with others' thoughts. Keep that 2x4 handy. I may need it. LOL!!
Labels: Stormwoodie
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/12/2007 07:13:00 AM
12 Comments:
Looks like your shot at redemption after missing the "March Mayhem". Hopefully, that 2X4 can be avoided as your lesson should still be fresh... For your sake, hope your wishcasting becomes your cure for SDS. I look forward to seeing what you get. At least, you won't have the "Rick Curse" to contend with, and keep our fingers crossed that the "Steve Curse" lays dormant. ;-)
Me too! My buddy Glenn calls it the "Stevoid®". ;-) It looks like alot of fun tomorrow. I might gamble with what appears to be a cold core setup taking shape closer to home. I'm getting lazy and want to chase storms as lazy as I am. LOL! That and the fact that I have no idea when I can get out of work tomrrow.
If you screw up this setup Steve, I am personally taking you back to DFW! LOL
You know, a condemned man should do so accordingly without any fuss. ;-) But, I ask you to show mercy and just throw me off a cliff at Palo Duro Canyon Park. LOL!! (....ooops..did I just say that?) ;-) Anything would be better than being sentenced back to DFW. Ugh.
Ok, one nice thing about chasing around DFW... Sprint high speed EVDO!!!
David, no you don't! Anywhere but here!
Steve, it was so funny. I was watching spotternetwork.org and I actually sent a text message to David asking if you were with him. I thought your APRS must have gone haywire. I mean, why else would it show you in Dumas?
If you do it again, I will personally drive to Amarillo for no other reason than to smack you myself!
David...will it help you with Friday afternoon/evening rush hour around DFW? ;-) The thought of that nightmare makes me quesy. :-0~
I can't help but think that target area is very long overdue for a big tornado event. I certainly hope not though. But, the law of averages eventually catches up with you sooner or later.
Are ya'll headed there in the morning?
1730z SPC DAY2 is out!
Matt,
I thought Miller OK had like 100-something? ;-)
I really like tomorrow too but I fear that I may get stuck too long at work to make it that far. It's 5 hours from here to DFW and about 3 to SPS. We'll see though. I still think I can catch something between CDS and SPS....based on 12z model runs of course. ;-) Like you said, if this trend continues of slowing and deepening, I might have a shot at the main party.
Gainesville to Paris is tough chase territory with expected storm motions moving storms across the river.
Hwy 82 that parallels big red takes a bit of an ESE jog towards Paris and any road options across the river are pretty sparse. I guess it depends on where the warm front parks itself. Overnight and morning convection in the cool sector will play a pivotal role in that.
With the system really on shore now within a decent RAOB network, the models this evening should perform alot better on this system. I can't wait! :-)
I like the SRH parameter of "BONKERS" btw. Like you said, even your spit would rotate. LOL!! I have family there in Grayson county, so I'm going to be abit uneasy watching this unfold.
Glenn,
ROFL! I shall return to DFW and cast my "Stevoid®" upon you!
Yeah, no more gambling for me this year unless I have solid data in which to do so.
If I do manage to screw up royally again, I'll actually look forward to the 2x4 therapy session. ;-)
Wow! SPC actually references the 3/28/2000 event! That's a bit unusual, but tells me they are pretty concerned about it. The wording is pretty strong for a day 2 outlook, but who could argue with it?
I also noticed that they are considering the possibility of storms rooting and moving along the warm front. If that happens, it will mow down everything in it's path. the SRH values exceed "BONKERS" and into "OH SHIT". ;-) Seriously, I'm not sure what the SRH values would really be with them already over 500....800 or more? Sheesh, that should spin more than a DNC press release. LOL!!
Oh my...I feel a sudden illness coming on pretty fast. ;-)
Nothing a few tornadic supercells won't cure, I'm sure... ;-)
Post a Comment
<< Home