Forecast 4/12 & 4/13

An interesting couple of days ahead of us in the Southern Plains. I might also note that this Friday is the 13th. OMG!! ;-)

Latest model runs are coming into better agreement. The upper air system indeed is a tad slower and deeper than originally advertised earlier this week. This is typical result with such southern latitude storm systems forecast that far in advance. The recent arctic blast that assaulted us recently scoured the moisture pretty severely. However, the GOM basin is still in good shape. In fact, mid and upper 60Td still exist along the TX coastal plains. So....on to the specifics.

THURSDAY: Moisture return will not begin in ernest until the morning hours. This time frame will not allow a good deep fetch to get established. However, enough moisture return will make it in time to give us a little instability to work with.....perhaps 1000-1500 MLCAPE. As we saw yesterday in SW OK and in other similar cases, you don't need much if the dynamics are there....an important point I'm making.

Right now, the forecast is for 50Td to nose in towards Childress and Plainview by 00z. Given current conditions along the coast, I don't think this is unreasonable given that the 850mb flow remains backed and in sync with surface flow. 12z soundings at BRO and CRP indicate the moisture is very shallow. We'll have to see how much moisture returns at 850mb down there by morning. I'm concerned with the moisture being paper thin tomorrow. With 20+ dewpoint depressions, we are going to fight high bases....however.....

One thing that keeps just whacking me in the head with a 2x4 (reference my March 28 bafoonery), is the we will have a warm front and dryline intersection currrently forecast for the Plainview vicinity. With surface and 850mb flow from the SE north of this warm front with pronounced SW flow aloft, the deep layer helicities go through the roof!! Any storm along the warm front or moving just to the north of it will encounter values exceeding 500. They should be spinning like top!! So at the very least, some very impressive storm structure should result if nothing else. With the dewpoint depressions much lower along with resultant LCLs, a few tornadoes would be likely. With 500mb winds this side of hurricane force, they should be chaseable storms.

Again, moisture return is gonna be critical...but right now I'm liking what I see. More on this in the morning for sure.

FRIDAY: This has the makings of a significant outbreak. Friday the 13th indeed. All parameters for a major event appear to be coming together. So, I won't regurgitate the obvious. I look for a serious tornado threat along the warm front and track of surface low. Right now, it looks like the Red River Valley region. I also think from the Red River all the way into south Texas will get hammered big time with various modes of severe weather. DFW better watch out.

If you can't chase, it would be a great day to armchair chase with radar data in front of you. For me personally, I don't think I'll be able to make it due to work obligations. That's ok though. I'm not going to go jump off a cliff or seek counseling over it. LOL!!!

Stay tuned!!!!