Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond To Infinity!
NAM and RUC try to pop something isolated in my backyard by 00Z today. CAPE 1500-2000 forecast today here and a bit of convergence along with good veering profiles would definitely make it worth a gentleman's chase today. I'm not really sold on that happening though because the surface convergence looks pretty weak and suspect. Still, I'll be watching it this afternoon.
Tomorrow continues to look better all around with the latest 12z NAM. Although I'm still skeptical of upper 50 Td on the caprock, I'm reluctantly starting to warm up to the idea. I might be buying a few beers. :-) I'm still shying away from the PH as a traget area because the rapid and powerful linear forcing forecast looks like an almost instantaneous squall line with embedded sups/tors.
A quick glance at the 500-250mb forecast shows some powerful and impressive dynamics focused on the Lubbock vicinity by 00Z. The diffluence is "off the charts" and should result in incredible lift at these levels resulting in more violent updrafts. The overall veering profiles will be better here along with abit better moisture. I'm sure the various forecast severe parameters and indices available in the next couple of hours willl focuse on that area as well based on previous model runs.
So, unless this evening's model runs change signficantly, I plan on heading to Lubbock in the late morning and munch data while preparing my interpretive dance routine of the "Forbidden Sacred Dance Of Chaser Merriment". If enough members of the Tailchaser Interpretive Dance Troupe show up, we will perform "River Dance: Lord Of The Chase". I gotta find a sexy bandana somewhere.... :-)
Sunday isn't looking as good now, unfortunately for SDS sufferers in SE KS to N TX. Maybe some morning action for NE OK and SE KS on Sunday. But, next week starting on Monday, it looks like 3 days of hot, steamy, sexy stormchasing action for the southern plains...including Oklahoma!!! Yeah! :-) Something needs to happen there before we revoke their membership in the Association of Tornado Alley States. ;-)
The nice thing to see through late April is the TX PH and W TX getting soaked with repeated rounds of heavy, soaking rains. With such an extremely active southern stream storm system, I can't help but be just a tad giddy thinking about May and June. :-)
Tomorrow continues to look better all around with the latest 12z NAM. Although I'm still skeptical of upper 50 Td on the caprock, I'm reluctantly starting to warm up to the idea. I might be buying a few beers. :-) I'm still shying away from the PH as a traget area because the rapid and powerful linear forcing forecast looks like an almost instantaneous squall line with embedded sups/tors.
A quick glance at the 500-250mb forecast shows some powerful and impressive dynamics focused on the Lubbock vicinity by 00Z. The diffluence is "off the charts" and should result in incredible lift at these levels resulting in more violent updrafts. The overall veering profiles will be better here along with abit better moisture. I'm sure the various forecast severe parameters and indices available in the next couple of hours willl focuse on that area as well based on previous model runs.
So, unless this evening's model runs change signficantly, I plan on heading to Lubbock in the late morning and munch data while preparing my interpretive dance routine of the "Forbidden Sacred Dance Of Chaser Merriment". If enough members of the Tailchaser Interpretive Dance Troupe show up, we will perform "River Dance: Lord Of The Chase". I gotta find a sexy bandana somewhere.... :-)
Sunday isn't looking as good now, unfortunately for SDS sufferers in SE KS to N TX. Maybe some morning action for NE OK and SE KS on Sunday. But, next week starting on Monday, it looks like 3 days of hot, steamy, sexy stormchasing action for the southern plains...including Oklahoma!!! Yeah! :-) Something needs to happen there before we revoke their membership in the Association of Tornado Alley States. ;-)
The nice thing to see through late April is the TX PH and W TX getting soaked with repeated rounds of heavy, soaking rains. With such an extremely active southern stream storm system, I can't help but be just a tad giddy thinking about May and June. :-)
Labels: Chaser Giddiness, Interpretive Dance Routines, Sexy Bandanas, Who Is Oklahoma
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/20/2007 09:38:00 AM
21 Comments:
Modified my hotel reservation to be in Wichita Fall, TX this evening to get some of the chase miles behind me before tomorrow. I won’t go into all the details, but Wichita Falls has never been a good experience for me, but there is like noting between there and Lubbock.
I do have the HD camera packed so the special limited edition inaugural "Forbidden Sacred Dance Of Chaser Merriment" DVD will be available with all proceeds going the Supercell Deprivation Treatment Centers. The Oklahoma division of Supercell Deprivation Treatment Centers is full to capacity and we need your help!!!
I would pay hard cold cash to see this "Forbidden Secret Dance of Chaser Merriment." LMAO- that cracked me up. Here's to hoping to catch something tomorrow. :o)
Bob, we at the SDS headquarters are with you in spirit as you deal with the overflow of SDS patients there. Your efforts are quite heroic and inspiring. I will happily perform the FSDOCM complete with a behind-the-scenes segment and personal interview. Anything we can do to help..... ;-)
I've never stayed in WTF except for a couple of times because I always just drove home to McKinney. I stayed at a Super 8 on the west side of town someplace and it wasn't bad. But, I've seen enough bad places there and heard an incredible horror story from the Weathervine crew from an experience there. Remember, the Tailchaser Motel here in Amarillo is always open. :-)
Noaa's mom: Really? You'd pay hard cold cash? How much? Heck, I'd do a personal dance for you for $20. ;-) But then, afterwards, you'd probably want your money back. LOL!!
Latest Day 2 sounds like SPC likes Lubbock area as well. They got the hatch down to Midland. I'm like David, it'll be difficult to get to sleep :-)
Of course, with the SPC going hatch crazy on this event, even the naysayers will be out and about tomorrow. I think I'll issue my Day 2 Stormchaser Police forecast: High risk!! LOL!!
Speaking of which, with all of the outlaw chasers running loose around here, I'm quite surprised they haven't shown up en masse....yet. ;-)
Speaking of outlaw chasers, this is priceless:
http://www.network54.com/Forum/426682/message/1160796003/TWISTER+BOY+THATS+MY+KIND+OF+NAME
I got back from lunch and saw it too, had to have a few minutes to recompose myself! You guys might want to avoid me though, we are most likely going to have a camera crew along Saturday for a story.
I fully expect to see a high risk hoisted up sometime tomorrow. The more I look at stuff Plainview/Lubbock/Clovis seems to be a good general target right now, to be refined in the morning of course.
My comment has been saved and will be visible after goobersmooch approves it.
even more outlaw fun:
http://spweblog.com/extremehillbillychazers
You may head south in the morning Steve but you will end up playing the "triangle of death" tomorrow just like me and Noaa's mom. At least if you want to break you missout streak..lol. nothing wrong with spinning supercells for 3-4 hrs before they line out.
"triangle of death"= area from LBB to Clovis to AMA back to LBB (my coined phrase.
Think we will heas SW and set up somewhere ESE of clovis (maybe muleshoe) and wait for the explosion. Best winds and forcing should be in this area and best change of a spinup before we line out. I am goin 45 hatched hail, 45 hatched wind and 10-15 tornado..maybe hatched. upper moderate risk. Shluld be a high for the hail and wind alone. Amarillo is going to get clobbered by either a tornado or some serious wind and hail like last week.
Monday is looking like a great day and I will be taking a half day off fot that one.
I will check with you in the AM and we wilkl share our "thoughts".. :)
This is their trailer on Youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxIgDls-r_c
Hey! I'm glad you found their website stuff! Those guys rock! I hope to meet them in the field soon so I can shake their hand. I want to buy one of their logo hats and at least become an honorary member. :-) After reading the blog, I think I know now where the stormchaser police "blog gestapo unit" went to now. LOL!
Thanks for finding that stuff.
AS far as today, the RUC continues to try and bust something out here around Amarillo to west of Liberal around 00-01z. SPC mentioned earlier a possible weak impulse in WV imagery and model data approaching us. This might be a nice chase before the circus tomorrow.
Jay,
Oh, okay, I know who Noaa's mommy is now! I'm such a dunce sometimes. :-) I like the "traingle of death"! LOL!! I think we'll all have fun tomorrow and hope there is time to get together for a celebratory dinner afterwards. I agree that this will be a large scale significant event for all modes of severe weather. Amarillo and Lubbock both should hunker down.
Some very interesting discussions in the morning for sure!
So, Dave, you have a camera crew along tomorrow? Cool! Don't let the stormchaser police find out. LOL!! I guess you don't want us around doing goofy stuff in the background like making faces or holding two fingers behind your head. You're no fun! ;-)
Dang it Jay- I was trying to be mysterious. And Steve- do you accept personal checks for private dances?? LMAO. See you out there tomorrow. :o)
I will...but it needs to clear first. ;-) I know it would be good, but like I said, you'll want your money back afterwards. LOL! NO REFUNDS!! :-)
I look forward to seeing ya'll out there too! It's be about time. I promise to not drive to Del Rio or something crazy like that. ;-)
Steve,
I never thought I'd see the day you were reduced to relying on lap dance money to fund your chasing habit. I guess I shouldn't be surprised given the price of gas these days. Just don't tell me the details, it would be too painful....
I never thought I'd see the day that somebody would pay me for a lap dance. LOL!! If my house doesn't sell soon, I might be doing alot of things for money. ;-)
The schedule for the camera crew might have changed. With the fact that Lubbock metro is under the heavy gun and the fact the entire studio is ripped up for remodelling and everyone is stuck in small rooms, they will probably wait until another time. How concerned are they? I was just issued a SAT phone AND a 2 way radio on the station frequencies just in case cell service goes down in the metro!
Anyone gets something good in the Lubbock viewing area and wants to make a little gas money get with me!
Damn i hit enter too soon, that last post was me.
SVR in Amarillo! Go steve go!
Just got home from a pretty darned good chase. Stuck with a really nice LP/Classic striated barber pole from west of Kress to near Canyon. Pics to come!!!
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