General Ramblings
National Weather Service in Lubbock has put together a real nice event summary and survey of the April 21st tornadoes here in the TX PH.
Synopsis (with some cool pics): http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/climate/Local_interest_events/2007/20070421_tor/
Tulia Survey with lots of great pics and areal photos of the damage path: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/climate/Local_interest_events/2007/20070421_tor/tulia_damage.html
Full NWS-LBB Public Statement: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/climate/Local_interest_events/2007/20070421_tor/pns.html
A great NWS-AMA report: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ama/april21_2007/index.htm
Onto other stuff....
In looking at the models convulse and spaz out, I think there is a solid general consensus that next week starts cranking up again big time. A couple of smaller impulses traverse the plains ahead of yet another large upper level low. I am quite amazed to see such a parade of strong upper systems for such an extended period at such a southerly latitude. It has indeed been a very very long time since I've seen this type of pattern. Here we are approaching May and Texas is still going to be in the thick of things. Moisture is plentiful aided in part by evapotranspiration as many places in Texas, especially the PH, are saturated and things very green. The past 10 years, this is about time when the ridge sets in and deflects everything into Nebraska. It's euphoria for chasers but not so good news for residents.
A system advertised tomorrow looked really good on yesterday's models, but this morning not looking so great for my neck of the woods. However, these NW flow impulses are notorious for not being handled well by models, so I'll be watching it carefully as they can also result in some impressive severe weather events.
After tomorrow, we'll have to start watching the smaller impulses before the big mamma upper low smacks us next week. I don't think the models are handling this interim transition very well, so I'm on a day-to-day basis for severe weather potential evaluation. I expect the models to have alot of spread or "noisy solutions" for the next few days as they gradually converge on next weeks' system.
In the crystal ball for May, I keep seeing see-sawing solutions for the general northern hemispheric pattern. However, based on how the upper air pattern has behaved for the past 6 months and what I'm starting to see as a "theme" in the models, I am really getting excited for May. My patience in not taking days off to chase in April may in fact payoff over the next 8-10 weeks. :-)
Onto other things, a BIG shout out and WOOT goes to Dewdrop for being selected as a participant in the upcoming reality show for stormchasing organized by the Twister Sisters. WAY TO GO DEW!! She and her hubby get an all-expense paid adventure out in the plains. How cool is that? I'm always happy to see somebody whose raw passion, fascination and interest in weather has the chance to do something like this. Experiencing mother nature in all of her splendor, power and beauty....simply to stand in awe, wonder and amazement instead of worrying about who else out there might see more tornadoes or get better video...is indeed quite refreshing and invigorating to me. It's why I got started in this passionate hobby to begin with and something I always seem to be working on to regain. I always find it though when I stand before a majestic supercell on the plains. It's a shame that there are those out there who want to ruin that experience.
Speaking of which, I've already warned her that the "stormchaser police" might swing into action since she is doing something they deem as an offense. If they do, they are going to get quite alot more than they bargained for in return. That's a guarantee. ;-) But, then again, maybe they'll just mind their own business and leave her alone. Let's hope so.
Lastly, look at this cool website I found compiled by Roger Edwards of websites dedicated to specific events: http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/faq/torpages.html I even found my Stratford 5/15/03 event there! :-)
OK...back to work after scarfing down lunch.
Synopsis (with some cool pics): http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/climate/Local_interest_events/2007/20070421_tor/
Tulia Survey with lots of great pics and areal photos of the damage path: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/climate/Local_interest_events/2007/20070421_tor/tulia_damage.html
Full NWS-LBB Public Statement: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/climate/Local_interest_events/2007/20070421_tor/pns.html
A great NWS-AMA report: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ama/april21_2007/index.htm
Onto other stuff....
In looking at the models convulse and spaz out, I think there is a solid general consensus that next week starts cranking up again big time. A couple of smaller impulses traverse the plains ahead of yet another large upper level low. I am quite amazed to see such a parade of strong upper systems for such an extended period at such a southerly latitude. It has indeed been a very very long time since I've seen this type of pattern. Here we are approaching May and Texas is still going to be in the thick of things. Moisture is plentiful aided in part by evapotranspiration as many places in Texas, especially the PH, are saturated and things very green. The past 10 years, this is about time when the ridge sets in and deflects everything into Nebraska. It's euphoria for chasers but not so good news for residents.
A system advertised tomorrow looked really good on yesterday's models, but this morning not looking so great for my neck of the woods. However, these NW flow impulses are notorious for not being handled well by models, so I'll be watching it carefully as they can also result in some impressive severe weather events.
After tomorrow, we'll have to start watching the smaller impulses before the big mamma upper low smacks us next week. I don't think the models are handling this interim transition very well, so I'm on a day-to-day basis for severe weather potential evaluation. I expect the models to have alot of spread or "noisy solutions" for the next few days as they gradually converge on next weeks' system.
In the crystal ball for May, I keep seeing see-sawing solutions for the general northern hemispheric pattern. However, based on how the upper air pattern has behaved for the past 6 months and what I'm starting to see as a "theme" in the models, I am really getting excited for May. My patience in not taking days off to chase in April may in fact payoff over the next 8-10 weeks. :-)
Onto other things, a BIG shout out and WOOT goes to Dewdrop for being selected as a participant in the upcoming reality show for stormchasing organized by the Twister Sisters. WAY TO GO DEW!! She and her hubby get an all-expense paid adventure out in the plains. How cool is that? I'm always happy to see somebody whose raw passion, fascination and interest in weather has the chance to do something like this. Experiencing mother nature in all of her splendor, power and beauty....simply to stand in awe, wonder and amazement instead of worrying about who else out there might see more tornadoes or get better video...is indeed quite refreshing and invigorating to me. It's why I got started in this passionate hobby to begin with and something I always seem to be working on to regain. I always find it though when I stand before a majestic supercell on the plains. It's a shame that there are those out there who want to ruin that experience.
Speaking of which, I've already warned her that the "stormchaser police" might swing into action since she is doing something they deem as an offense. If they do, they are going to get quite alot more than they bargained for in return. That's a guarantee. ;-) But, then again, maybe they'll just mind their own business and leave her alone. Let's hope so.
Lastly, look at this cool website I found compiled by Roger Edwards of websites dedicated to specific events: http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/faq/torpages.html I even found my Stratford 5/15/03 event there! :-)
OK...back to work after scarfing down lunch.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/26/2007 10:47:00 AM
10 Comments:
As far as "blog-yguards" go, you're the best. Thanks for the shout out, Steve. I appreciate your support and encouragement. This opportunity thrills me.
Uh oh, another "HDD" coming on... ;-)
That's pretty cool Dew, have fun with that. I heard all the sirens going off earlier and I wondered what had happened in chasing, now I know! :)
Awwww...shucks, ma'am. [blush] T'aint nuthin' :-)
I don't think you guys are ready for the Dew...lololol!!! Things in the plains will never be the same.
Wait a minute now... that's sounding almost negative... Steve, are you going to allow him to trash talk me like that? ;-) I have to agree though, (lol) the plains will never be the same...
David, thanks. Oh, and remember, if you can hear thunder, you're close enough to be struck.
Fret not, o fair maiden! [hero music here] I shall smote thine villian mightily with a sling psychrometer! Back you knave!
:-)
Hark!! I am ahgast or gassed by thee! Such strong verbs committ thyself and/or backside to a lashing by wooden planks with nails. The maiden that thou defendest till death is no ordinary maiden..Canst thou say "Supastar" my lord.. LOLOLOLOLO
Oh, I know this part, this is the part where I raise the back of my hand to my forehead and swoon... then collapse daintily, yet dramatically in a half faint, sighing as I beckon the words... "MY HERO!" Wow, and to defend me with a forecasting tool... no less...
Signed,
The SUPASTAR!!
;-)
Oh evil gnave, wouldst thou be wielding a holy two by four? LOL!
Wow, Dew, that's pretty good dramatic action there worthy of a nod from the Academy. You're quite the Thespian! ...or Supastar! :-)
I'm speechless................
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