Today 4/23!!!
2020Z UPDATE: Really super short on time. Will be heading just south of Amarillo in an hour. SPC 2000z outlook is right on the money...good to see they finally shifted the threat westward. :-) It looks like a pretty darned good chase setting up...even an idiot like me should be able to catch a tornado today. I think I'll avoid trying to breach the eyewall though. ;-) Further updates on the road at http://texastailchaser.com/tailcaster
1515z UPDATE: Very busy at work...only able to take a couple of peeks at data here and there. Will likely just wait until late afternoon for any sort of data analysis. Briefly, I don't like the stream of thick cirrus canopy coming over my target area. This could also effectively limit the dryline mixing as well. Could also squash convective initiation until towards dark. Tough call right now. Not as concerned about 300-200mb winds north of I-40 as I was. Stronger insolation there is making me consider shifting my target to NE TX PH. More later....
I'm not needing too much coffee this morning after looking at the SPC outlook. 2007 is really turning out to be quite the chase year!! I certainly picked a good time to move up here. ;-) Now If I can just learn how to catch tornadoes instead of strategically avoiding them!! LOL!!
The only thing I'll add to the SPC discussion is that I'm not convinced that the dryline will move quite as fast or as far east as the NAM forecast from last night. I don't think it will be a significant distance however. Other than that, it's gonna be a great chase day. I like the E and SE PH in the southern end of the 1300z slight risk. This would be the E and SE TX PH. The big reason for this is better moisture and more importantly where the stronger 300-200mb winds will be to spread the precip further down stream. The further north of I-40 you go, the weaker those winds are resulting in something more HPish. I also like the forecast bulge coming into that area as well. Storm motions today will be alot more tame thankfully.
In alot of ways, this particular setup reminds me abit of 5/15/2003 where I caught the big wedge and satellite trunk. The lower level winds aren't quite as strong (that day they were screaming 30-40 sustained). But other than that, it's fairly similar.
Oh....and a pretty significant outbreak is on tap tomorrow as well from Kansas down into Texas. Oklahoma looks primed for a nasty outbreak. More on that later because I probably can't chase it because of work.
OK....off to work so I can sneak out early. :-)
1515z UPDATE: Very busy at work...only able to take a couple of peeks at data here and there. Will likely just wait until late afternoon for any sort of data analysis. Briefly, I don't like the stream of thick cirrus canopy coming over my target area. This could also effectively limit the dryline mixing as well. Could also squash convective initiation until towards dark. Tough call right now. Not as concerned about 300-200mb winds north of I-40 as I was. Stronger insolation there is making me consider shifting my target to NE TX PH. More later....
I'm not needing too much coffee this morning after looking at the SPC outlook. 2007 is really turning out to be quite the chase year!! I certainly picked a good time to move up here. ;-) Now If I can just learn how to catch tornadoes instead of strategically avoiding them!! LOL!!
The only thing I'll add to the SPC discussion is that I'm not convinced that the dryline will move quite as fast or as far east as the NAM forecast from last night. I don't think it will be a significant distance however. Other than that, it's gonna be a great chase day. I like the E and SE PH in the southern end of the 1300z slight risk. This would be the E and SE TX PH. The big reason for this is better moisture and more importantly where the stronger 300-200mb winds will be to spread the precip further down stream. The further north of I-40 you go, the weaker those winds are resulting in something more HPish. I also like the forecast bulge coming into that area as well. Storm motions today will be alot more tame thankfully.
In alot of ways, this particular setup reminds me abit of 5/15/2003 where I caught the big wedge and satellite trunk. The lower level winds aren't quite as strong (that day they were screaming 30-40 sustained). But other than that, it's fairly similar.
Oh....and a pretty significant outbreak is on tap tomorrow as well from Kansas down into Texas. Oklahoma looks primed for a nasty outbreak. More on that later because I probably can't chase it because of work.
OK....off to work so I can sneak out early. :-)
Labels: BOOYAH
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/23/2007 07:49:00 AM
10 Comments:
We are in agreement with your Dryline Bulge there. I will be heading up your way to AMA before too long. Give me a call when you get a chance.
Wish I could be out there today. This looks like it could be a bigger event than tomorrow chase-wise. As you said, storm speeds will be in check which is a primary issue tomorrow.
Time will tell...
I like the dryline bulge the RUc continues to show. I like the Childress area also but with the possiblility of things going a bit more north I will play the middle and target Shamrock as a start. We will be on the road by 1230. Give me a shout if you can get out
I think the I-40 corridor is a good place to start or hang out. The cirrus canopy is thinning out nicely, so I'm wavering back to my target area south of I-40...but now closer to Amarillo. McLean seems like a good place to sit. At least we won't have to worry about 50mpg storm motions today! LOL!! In fact, I like the stronger CAPE today and moisture. Storms will get better rooted and much more prone to make a right turn...moving almost due east. That's it for my Jiffy Pop analysis....back to work.
Spare the 2X4, spoil the chaser...
You killed it??? Stevoid strikes again, huh?
Ark City, KS is really looking like a fine place to be tomorrow afternoon. Anywhere between Stillwater, OK and Newton, KS should be decent though.
Guess tomorrow will be a little far for you?
Spare the 2X4, spoil the chaser...
ROTFLOL - I think I just found my new StormTrack signature line!
I agree!! That is a hilarious line. LOL!! Glenn, I'm certain there will be at least a couple of individuals on ST that will find it offensive and have a hissy fit over it. :-)
Hey Steve,
You have no idea how badly I wanted to be on the road this morning eastbound on I-40. It's a historic sort of day to be certain.
It is just too far and I'd have to take two days off from work very likely which would include a day to recover. :-)
So, ya'll bag a bunch of tornadoes for me today. I'll be cheering from the sidelines and saving radar data.
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