Crystal Ball Madness

It looks like the big east coast trough setup will be short-lived after all. The models have been consistent in cranking up the severe weather machine around the 12-15th timeframe with developing west coast troughiness. Details are silly this far out, but in looking at the past few model runs, there is some indication that it will be a very active setup. We shall see. :-)

Before the big upper eastern trough establishes itself however, a few interesting setups to note. Today, the SPC outlooked a 2% TOR from Junction to Ardmore along the dryline. Although the dryline convergence looks rather weak along with more veered 850mb flow across it (usually spelling the cap of doom), anything that can pop will encounter strong instabilities today and westerly flow at 500mb....ALWAYS a setup that can produce some pretty good isolated tornadic cells. I'm writing this looking at 0z models, so it will be interesting to see the 12z data come in. Something to watch for my old stomping grounds. Tomorrow for North Central Texas looks abit interesting too.

For my area, a potent little impulse in the NW flow aloft takes aim on us early next week which has been advertised the past several runs as well. That time frame starts to get pretty fuzzy in the crystal ball however....just something to kinda watch. Until then, I'm not putting away my coat yet. :-)