TORNADO-O-RAMA!!!!!!

UPDATE 2100z: Initiation is imminent. I'm watching the dryline percolate to the west of the I-27 corridor. It seems better moisture is south if I-40 and that is where I'll be focusing. I'll be headed towards Hereford shortly where I see a small kink in the dryline indicated by radar. PDS tornado watch. This is going to be wild.

UPDATE 1730Z: As expected, the SPC pushed the risk areas further west. Currently, everything is still taking shape as the moisture rapidly advects into the PH with 60's starting to work into the I-40 corridor. Skies have cleared and instabilities are rapidly increasing to near 3000 per SPC meso analysis. Cumulus is starting to build near the TX/NM border already. The one thing that still bugs me is the nearly uni-directional profiles currently. This argues for a quick transition to a linear squall with embedded supercells/tornadoes...tough to chase. I'm starting to think that this won't be a big tornado event overall...more wind and hail....even up in W KS where models indicate strongly backed boundary layer winds. It still argues for embedded tornadoes....good luck with chasing that. This is why I am opting for a tail-end charlie chase today. I still believe that will be in the TX PH somewhere. With instabilities as high as they will be late this afternoon, I still believe strongly that strong deviant motion is likely...and even a nearly stationary cell is a good bet. This would be THE storm of the day if it materializes. I'll be watching for it. I think I'm in a pretty good spot sitting here at my office desk. :-) Seriously though, AMA and Canyon are in a pretty dangerous zone in my opinion. It's gonna be a rough ride here.

UPDATE 1530Z: SIGNIFICANT TARGET AREA SHIFT! All models now indicate the dryline staying along the I-27 corridor through this evening and setting up west of AMA by late afternoon. I agree 100% with this. CAPE is still progged to reach 2500+ in the TX PH. What's more, the RUC is keeping ths southern end of convection north of Tulia through 00Z. A also agree with this in regards to the placement of the mid level jet core up to that time. This is really shaping up to be a big tail-end charlie event where a monstrous tornadic supercell rages for hours. Even more important is that the dryline remains nearly stationary. I believe there is a very good chance that any storm that forms along it would remain rooted on it and therefore nearly stationary as well with a slow E/SE drift. The SRH would go through the roof if that were to happen. My target as of now: Amarillo/Canyon/Claude. More later.....

First off, the little setup I talked about yesterday didn't pan out despite earlier RUC forecasts. Simply, there wasn't any boundary left over after 19z and the forecast surface convergence afterwards never materialized. The instability parameters ended up being alot more meager too. It seems that the RUC is really struggling this season terribly.

But, forget about all that. Today is a MAJOR significant severe weather outbreak from the Rio Grande to Nebraska. I won't regurgitate the SPC outlooks here as they are all over this event. This is an all-out classic severe weather outbreak.

Even if I didn't live here, I would target the TX PH today as the prime target. Every conceivable parameter comes together here in the most favorable combination to produce violent tornadic supercells. I will hapily be sitting in my office in Amarillo this afternoon until it is time to bug out. If I don't screw up and do something stupid, I'll have pics and video of tornadoes tomorrow. :-)

For anybody wanting to follow along today, I'll be running Spotter Network starting around 4pm. Look for my icon as "txtail" as you hover over each one. I'll be in the TX PH. :-)