Today's Outlook & Gentlemen, Start Your Data!!
UPDATE 2300Z: Well that juicy looking supercell I mentioned earlier is looking pitiful. I didn't take into account all of that rain cooled air feeding into it from the big squall line from the Rio Grande to Arkansas. It tried twice to really get its act together too. Oh well...at least the 12z GFS gave me some chasewood for next week and beyond. :-)
UPDATE 2145z: The cold core activity really isn't looking too promising for anything within reach for me today. Overall, the setup isn't panning out as good as I had hoped. However, if I could teleport, I would jump on a developing isolated supercell between Eastland and Breckenridge. It is apparent that it is exploding along a stationary boundary. Thus, the updraft region is nearly stationary and resulting in favorable SR winds and SREH. I'd bet a Big Texan steak dinner that it will pop a tornado pretty soon.
The upper low will be meandering around today and forecast to make a slow drift towards Plainview and then Childress. Skies have cleared nicely across a large area in the eastern nad southern quads of the upper low. With very cold temperatures (-20C at MAF and EPZ this morning) aloft around 500mb, lapse rates should be as steep as the Titan roller coaster at Six Flags. There is enough moisture in place to provide the fuel.
As we near peak heating today, at least a few isolated mini-supercells should pop up to the E and SE of the upper low. Boundaries will of course be key and that part of the equation is still up in the air. However, ongoing storms between Lubbock and Sweetwater could aid in this effort. We'll have to see what happens.
Speaking of those storms, they are associated with a spoke of vorticity evident by WV analysis and more distinct on radar loops. As this little swirl moves up towards the Childress/Altus/Seymour area today, things could get real interesting there. But, I expect additional storms to pop today near the cold core as it tracks towards CDS as well. I'll be watching things closely today and have my gear with me in case something pops up within a work-night chase range. I certainly think there is a possibility of a decent cold core event...if only with a couple of cells. Stay tuned.
The crystal ball this morning is showing that the anticipated pattern change will occur starting early next week. Current indications and thinking is that the annoying east coast troughiness will finally be replaced by a broad west coast trough and zonal flow across the plains. Moisture return looks to really pick up as well. If the GFS is correct in the last few runs, we could really get setup with a VERY active severe weather pattern the last half of March into April.
So, it's time to crank up the data services and fully equip the chase vehicle for the upcoming season. I've got alot of loose wires to tidy up and get WxWorx up and tested. I've also got to get my "gear center" setup at home. All of this should keep me busy for the next week when the atmosphere starts getting primed. :-)
UPDATE 2145z: The cold core activity really isn't looking too promising for anything within reach for me today. Overall, the setup isn't panning out as good as I had hoped. However, if I could teleport, I would jump on a developing isolated supercell between Eastland and Breckenridge. It is apparent that it is exploding along a stationary boundary. Thus, the updraft region is nearly stationary and resulting in favorable SR winds and SREH. I'd bet a Big Texan steak dinner that it will pop a tornado pretty soon.
The upper low will be meandering around today and forecast to make a slow drift towards Plainview and then Childress. Skies have cleared nicely across a large area in the eastern nad southern quads of the upper low. With very cold temperatures (-20C at MAF and EPZ this morning) aloft around 500mb, lapse rates should be as steep as the Titan roller coaster at Six Flags. There is enough moisture in place to provide the fuel.
As we near peak heating today, at least a few isolated mini-supercells should pop up to the E and SE of the upper low. Boundaries will of course be key and that part of the equation is still up in the air. However, ongoing storms between Lubbock and Sweetwater could aid in this effort. We'll have to see what happens.
Speaking of those storms, they are associated with a spoke of vorticity evident by WV analysis and more distinct on radar loops. As this little swirl moves up towards the Childress/Altus/Seymour area today, things could get real interesting there. But, I expect additional storms to pop today near the cold core as it tracks towards CDS as well. I'll be watching things closely today and have my gear with me in case something pops up within a work-night chase range. I certainly think there is a possibility of a decent cold core event...if only with a couple of cells. Stay tuned.
The crystal ball this morning is showing that the anticipated pattern change will occur starting early next week. Current indications and thinking is that the annoying east coast troughiness will finally be replaced by a broad west coast trough and zonal flow across the plains. Moisture return looks to really pick up as well. If the GFS is correct in the last few runs, we could really get setup with a VERY active severe weather pattern the last half of March into April.
So, it's time to crank up the data services and fully equip the chase vehicle for the upcoming season. I've got alot of loose wires to tidy up and get WxWorx up and tested. I've also got to get my "gear center" setup at home. All of this should keep me busy for the next week when the atmosphere starts getting primed. :-)
posted by Steve Miller TX at 3/13/2007 09:18:00 AM
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