Today's Forecast - AM

A quick scan over the RUC model as well as surface analysis shows things are progressing as expected. The 50Td line is impending on the TX PH area right now with a pretty decent moisture fetch on it's heels. I agree with the SPC that thick stratus out over the warm sector is going to complicate things. The RUC is trying to delay everything a few hours and kick off the show right at sunset and overnight.

Even though the SPC is hitting the tornado threat hard overnight, I'm skeptical of there being enough instability to support a hatched outlook area. We'll see of course. More data later this morning should help clarify this. If we see some clearning in the warm sector today, then I would raise my tornado threat concern more.

One thing I'm wtching closely is that the dryling may setup further west than current conventional thinking. This is based on the RUC forecast of course, so I want to see the other models in a few hours to see what the consensus is..along with newer RUC runs. Even if stuff fires after dark, I'll be out there if for no other reason than to get some lightning shots.