DAY 1 UPDATES

2210Z - My forecast initiation time was dead on :-) Storms are now exploding east of Plainview near Quitaque. I'm out the door towards Childress.

2125Z - Red Box is up for SW KS down into W/NW TX. ffI'll likely be heading down towards Childress/Clarendon where it appears the better moisture is residing. It's having a tough time making it up the caprock, but as winds continue to back, that may change. Right now though, I'm going for the current trend. I'll adjust if necessary. Hmmm.....satellite looking interesting :-) The Red Box:

1548Z - My previous suspicions of the dryling setting up further west are verifying. Latest NAM run supports the earlier and current RUC forecast of holding up the dryline closer to the I-27 corridor through 00Z.....right on top of Amarillo. They are also abit weaker on moisture return, but lower 50's just ahead of the dryline still seem likely even up on the caprock. I'm watching a good moisture fetch coming up through Midland/Sweetwater/Lubbock with mid to upper 50Td there. 60's are up to Del Rio/Junction/Temple. As usual, the mixing battle will ensue later today to offset the richer transport of moisture because it is relatively shallow....however, Del Rio 12z sounding showed it to be a little deeper.

All of this just to say that I expect lower 50Td to setup here in the PH near the dryline per model forecasts. Resultant CAPE should get to 1000j/kg with forecast SREH reaching "stormwoodie" proportions exceeding 300. Impressive mid and upper jets should move over the dryline this afternoon with a pronounced left exit region over the TX PH creating strong diffluence and resultant lift. So far, extensive cloudiness is minimal across the PH with clear skies in the northern half. Satellite does show that the thick stratus is remaining confined further south along with the thicker mid and high level clouds. So, moderate to strong insolation appear likely in the PH through afternoon. Nice!!!

The timing of convective initiation is still a concern as it will be closer to sunset. However, my thinking is that by 22z, something should start popping. We shall see. :-) More updates this afternoon after persuing more data and the SPC 1630Z outlook.