Today 3/21

UPDATE 2100Z: You know that weak little kink I mentioned earlier in the profiler analysis this morning? That and what appears to be a jet streak nosing into the area is starting to get things going. In the dry air, there are towering Cu already. Convergence is setting up near and just S and SE and E of AMA as well as indicated by latest vis satellite. Moisture is better towards CDS and far E TX PH, but decent moisture is advecting up on the caprock from the S and SE. I'm expecting a few isolated storms to bust out later starting in a couple of hours. If the surface winds back just off the caprock as the RUC is showing, then that along with better moisture would warrant at least a low-end tornado threat as indicated by the 20Z SPC outlook. The important thing is that I think I might have a chase today after all. :-) It appears initiation will be likely around Woodward at first and then something isolated back between Tulia to Clarendon later.

I'm not getting any chasewood today. ;-) The one big horsefly in the ointment is that there just doesn't seem to be any sort of disturbance aloft to help erode the cap. In fact, the RUC is indicating slight mid level ridging spreading across the PH and KS today. As a result, it is not breaking anything out in this area. The cap is stout and it's going to take more than what we are going ot have to work with.

One interesting thing I noticed is that profiler analysis shows a very weak little kink in the flow around 700mb approaching my region. The RUC didn't pick up on it. Also, pronounced increase in upper winds around 250mb was also noted at 18z which the RUC was a little off on. It's really grasping desperately at fleeting straws, but interesting to note. I still don't think it is going to be enough to pop anything.

Lastly, the RUC has been consistent in showing pronounced dryline convergence from around Woodward to Pratt later this afternoon. If it is enough, then something isolated *might* pop there. It's a very long shot for sure and not something I would make a long drive for. Some weak convergence around my area in the PH, S and SE of AMA, will be something I'll watch later this afternoon....just in case. :-)

I did FINALLY get all of my data services up and running today after a bit of trouble with my anti-virus software. I hate McAfee. I went with the Fisherman package on WxWorx. I also managed to get my GPS running on SA, GR3 and WxWorx as well without a hitch. On GR3, I've got all of the shapefiles loaded which display every road and highway...even Bob's roads....in the W half of TX, SW half of KS, E CO, E NM, and NE. A test run with the GPS running showed amazing accuracy around here in AMA. All of the various placefiles are up and running too. I now have all watches, MCD, outlook risks, and METARS (as station plots), and OK Mesonet running and updating nicely. Huge kudos to Jeff Snyder for not only making this data available for free, but that it runs very smoothly.

So, I'm ready and chomping at the bit to do some serious chasing...sometime this week. :-)