Today 3/20 & Beyond
Nothing to really hang your hat on today as the models are in good agreement of dissolving any surface focus/convergence in relation to a strong cap. A weak disturbance is progged by the RUC to move across W TX later today. But, I share the sentiment of the SPC that it doesn't appear to be any chance of any surface parcels busting the cap. I'll keep an eye on it though in case skies really clear off and the disturbance ends up being a little stronger along with any surface thermal boundaries in place. We are at least seeing some decent moisture up on the caprock. :-)
The severe chances increase tomorrow however and will continue to do so each day through the weekend. It is going to be a day one forecast for each of those days as too many variables will have to play out the morning of each potential chase day. Saturday however is really starting to look like the big finale of the week. At that time, the models are in very good agreement about a significant severe weather day for W TX and the PH into the Red River Valley northward into Kansas as the upper low opens up into a slight negative tilt and our good friends the dryline and triple point join the fray along with ample instabilities. Stay tuned!!! I'm pretty excited about the prospects the models are teasing me with. And what is that I see on the distant horizon next week? Another big storm system perhaps? ;-)
In the meantime, look for more WX-Geography on WX-CHASE, online debates about amber light bars, yahoo labeling, demise of video sales, chaser ethics, federal/state chaser regulation fear mongering, and a host of other subjects totally unrelated to the big start of the chase season....coming soon to a stormchasing chat list near you. LOL!
The severe chances increase tomorrow however and will continue to do so each day through the weekend. It is going to be a day one forecast for each of those days as too many variables will have to play out the morning of each potential chase day. Saturday however is really starting to look like the big finale of the week. At that time, the models are in very good agreement about a significant severe weather day for W TX and the PH into the Red River Valley northward into Kansas as the upper low opens up into a slight negative tilt and our good friends the dryline and triple point join the fray along with ample instabilities. Stay tuned!!! I'm pretty excited about the prospects the models are teasing me with. And what is that I see on the distant horizon next week? Another big storm system perhaps? ;-)
In the meantime, look for more WX-Geography on WX-CHASE, online debates about amber light bars, yahoo labeling, demise of video sales, chaser ethics, federal/state chaser regulation fear mongering, and a host of other subjects totally unrelated to the big start of the chase season....coming soon to a stormchasing chat list near you. LOL!
posted by Steve Miller TX at 3/20/2007 11:40:00 AM
9 Comments:
Yes it has! I hope school hasn't been too horrendous. I hope that things come together tomorrow for a good chase out here. If not, then by Saturday for sure. :-)
The Tailchaser Hotel is open. Email me for a phone#. Addy is on my website home page.
I am concerned about overly abundant precip and convective debris from that killing off instability chances. All the AFDs around the area now are talking up the potential flooding event.
Steve - just post your phone # here in your blog man! C'mon!
I am tied up with work obligations this week and probably several weeks to come.
I will, however, join the ranks of those "weekend" warriors who chase on Saturday's only.
Best of luck to anyone who goes out.
Yep, convective debris is a concern with such a big system. However, with a strong closed low that far south in latitude, it draws up alot of dry air in the mid levels down to 700mb. They almost always have alot of clear slotting on the W, S and E sides of it. If a clear slot coincides with peak heating and left over boundaries, things could get wild. But, as I keep saying, it is going to be a one-day forecast at best for any semblence of accuracy. My humble opinion only, of course. :-)
Should I post my address too? LOL!! The lunatics abound for sure.
Fear not as the season is still young. Hopefully you can work in some chasecation this year. As I told Matt, the Tailchaser Inn is open for business.
We are blowing off the outside chance along the dryline here in Texas today in favor of finishing up the chase vehicle for the other days later this week. SW TX/SE NM is looking nice around Friday. Right now the chase vehicle interior is almost entirely disassembled and there is about 5 miles of wiring going every which way. ACKK!
On another note. I hope that trough coming out next week is as strong as it looks like it will be. Something nasty is going to happen in the plains if that GFS scenario unfolds.
David, only 5 miles of wiring this year? You are getting lazy. ;-) Be sure to hook up as many amber light bars you can!! LOL!
I'm not having much hope for today other than a rogue isolated cell to pop somewhere between the Rio Grande and Nebraska. ;-)
Friday/Saturday still look good!! The system next week looks like a real bruiser too. It's nice to finally get an active pattern...and THIS time with some moisture to work with unlike 2006.
I got cut short on the remainder of the console building and wiring with a barrage of CGs that rivaled the Mulvane, KS storm!
Hopefully I can get out early in the AM and finish it up just in time.
Thanks for the link to my blog!
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