Crazy Week Ahead

The models have been bouncing all over the place in handling the evolving upper air pattern this week. The important thing is that we are through with the NW flow regime for quite awhile...in my opinion. This means unsettled and stormy weather for us weather weenies. I am looking forward to it after the long string of "Chamber Of Commerce" days in the TX PH. ;-) It has been absolutely beautiful up here in the past few weeks.

I even made it to the Palo Duro Canyon State Park on Saturday...my first trip there. It was astounding to say the least. If anybody on chasecation has a down day, I highly recommend a trip there. Bring a camera. ;-) I look forward to exploring it more in the future as well as the activities they have ongoing...including the show "Texas!" and the Elkins Ranch. Also, I checked out the Panhandle-Plains Historical Museum in Canyon. It exceeded my expectations for sure. I spent several hours there learning alot about this region from the prehistoric era through today....including the almighty windmill. :-) The antique car display alone is worth the price of admission. Don't miss it if you are out this way. Anyway.......

The important thing in the weather pattern this week is that there will be several, repeated episodes of severe weather anywhere between Kansas and the Rio Grande. To try and predict any target more finite than that is impossible right now. Why? The storm system has yet to even develop over the SW parts of the CONUS and the approaching energy from the Pacific that will spawn it is still well over the Pacific Ocean where sampling is sparse.

With that in mind, what I'm seeing this morning is strongly indicating that the energy (jet stream) is stronger than most model forecasts. The 12Z NAM is picking up on this right now. With the typical model bias of underforecasting these west coast systems, I am leaning heavily towards the "stronger" model solution which right now is the 00Z ECMWF. That model solution indicates a deeper and more closed-off upper low to move very slowly across the SW US towards the plains by this weekend. The "grand finale" of severe weather would be this Saturday and Sunday with several smaller stage events before then as pieces of energy eject out over an increasingly more unstable airmass and various surface focii.

There will be many critical variables coming into play each day regarding the location and intensity of severe weather events. I don't believe that a forecast more than 24 hours out will have any more reliability than tarot cards. I'm not going to waste any time or effort on the models beyond that window except for overall model trends, consensus and consistency regarding the overall upper air pattern evolution. I'll try to post my thoughts and personal forecast on a daily basis this week.

For today, a front moves through the PH and down towards Lubbock/Wichita Falls line before becoming stationary. A weak surface low is progged to develop somewhere W or WNW of Lubbock. Moisture in that area looks pretty pitiful today, but enough for some minimal instability. Convergence should be pretty strong and with lots of insolation and decent lapse rates, something isolated should pop along the front and near the surface low. With 180 degree veering profiles from the surface to 500mb, anything that forms should corkscrew and with the drier airmass, could be some nicely sculpted updrafts.

I probably will sit it out today in anticipation of better opportunities this week. But as always, I'll be watching everything unfold. :-)