Some Serious Rain Finally?

As the severe drought rages on and the lakes turn into mudholes, there is finally a signaled pattern change to offer some real hope for significant rains in the crystal ball. The models are really falling into good agreement over a deep trough over the western CONUS developing into a large cutoff upper low over the Baja region. We haven't seen this pattern in a very very long time *IF* it does indeed become reality. The wicked winter storm system that hit a couple of weeks ago was the first hint of a pattern change related to the weak El Nino pattern. With a big, cutoff low sitting out to our W and WSW and moving slowly across, it is a classic setup for prolonged benficial and even flooding rains this time of year. It could really be a good start in reversing the drought. We shall see. :-) Here are some computer model graphics for the time period of next Monday evening, the 18th.....

From the latest 12z GFS (that's a whopper of an upper low):

From the 00Z run of the ECMWF last night (note the next impulse coming down from the Pacific NW which could merge and deepen the existing big trough...but could easily serve to kick it out too...hard to say at this point. )

So, which configuration will occur? The 12z GFS is taking a more aggressive stance on this as of now, so it will be interesting to see all of the model trends with this evening's 00Z runs. Even with the ECMWF soution, it would still mean a good shot at heavy rains across the area. The GFS more flooding possibilities. Both would favor some severe potential as well as the warm sector will have ample time to juice up. If we had some arctic air spilling down, it would be another very wicked winter storm. No worries though from Kansas southward though...at least at his time. :-)

Of course, the biggest problem we have had for the past two years are that these systems are forecast to really deepen and drag across TX, only to open up and be more progressive across the Central Plains or at best Oklahoma thus shafting us with the dry slot and a meager, brief shot of precipitation.

I've been watching and studying weather patterns (as an amateur of course...for you snotty elitists out there) and how they affect Texas for most of my life. Big, upper lows like this in winter and early spring should be "normal" for us. So, climatology would support such a solution. But, climatology has been thrown in the crapper for the past several years. LOL!! Hopefully we are witnessing the infant stages of climatology returning to the Southern Plains. Let's fill up the lakes and spin up some naders in TX and OK again. :-)

Pray for rain.