RED ALERT! DEFCON 1!! :-)

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

16z Update: Latest analysis and RUC forecasts are starting to shift the tornado threat north of I-40 and I-44 into NE OK and SE KS and SW MO. The reason for that is veered 850mb flow forecast and in fact strongly veered from 21z onward. This certainly won't support strong or long lived tornadoes since the vertical wind profiles will be almost unidirectional with only a small veering profile in the lower 5000 feet. Current profiler and VAD analysis certainly support this trend as well. But, let there be no doubt that these storms south of I-40/44 will be vicious with gorilla hail and violent downburst winds. If any storm gets firmly rooted on the dryline or become right turners, they will still have a tornado potential, albeit not as significant as earlier thought. HOWEVER, if some sort of W/E boundary sets up from earlier convection across OK, then that would help the tornado threat for any cell interacting with that. I'll be looking for that. (I'm about to give up on the security company coming out first late yesterday and then as promised this morning. I've had to take a day off from work to wait on them. Oh well, I'll call somebody else that will come out this Saturday and get it taken care of. At least I can leave the house here and intercept a storm later on. Sorry for the rant.)

I'm not at all surprised that the latest 12z RUC slows the dryline significantly today and the 12z ETA just rolling in concurs....even a tad slower. Like I stated yesterday, the others' alarm bells will soon be going off for this region of S OK and N TX. When will the general forecasting community stop taking the NAM at full face value with these systems? I'm no stellar super-star forecaster, but after you see the same identical bias repeted continually without exception, even my cat could predict a more westward verfication.

Besides, the ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET have been rock solid and consistent with this and the past few systems, but it is hard to find any forecast discussions out there that take them seriously...except the NCEP gurus. I've heard Chuck Doswell rant about such "model regurgitation" being rampant and I certainly concur. People's lives are at stake in situations such as this one taking shape today. Sure, call me elitist and an a-hole and point out the fact that I don't a met degree...blah blah blah...but that doesn't change the facts nor the truth. Please stop hugging the NAM. It has sucked horribly this year. I now call it the Never Accurate Model.

OK....my rant is over with...I feel better. :-) The dryline will just be approaching I-35 by 21z and in eastern OK near Tulsa down to just east of Greenville by 00Z. All jets from the lower levels to 200mb are juxtaposed right over Oklahoma and the Red River Valley through 00Z today nosing into E KS, MO and AR. CAPE values over 2500 will provide the necessary fuel for violent supercells today. All shear parameters and hodograph profiles certainly look supportive of violent tornadoes in a few of the storms. I certainly think that some longer track tornadoes are a possibility.

One additional parameter that we'll have today that I don't recall with the last few systems is a rapid intrusion of 0C 700mb temps racing across OK and The RR Valley today. Based on a couple of presentations I've seen by Al Mollar regarding this particular situation, it seems to be another argument for a significant tornado event. Not only does this result in intense lower level lapse rates and 0-3km CAPE, but also serves really enhance a dryline punch or bulge with stronger surface winds due to enhanced mixing...I think. ;-)

The SPC has gotten burned a couple of times this year with PDS watches with nothing verifying. I am however totally convinced that today will be different....unfortunately for residents. Indeed, this is a VERY dangerous situation unfolding.

My target? Just across the Red River starting around Ardmore/Madill and reacting/adjusting from there as necessary.