March 30 & Beyond
00Z UPDATE: The NAM is looking a little more potent and showing a greater threat for tornadic supercells through southern Oklahoma into SE KS..especially SE KS. However, I think they'll be more embedded in grunge and precip north of I40 and tougher to chase. The more isolated cells and chaseable cells will be south of I-40. These I think will certainly be tornadic if they remain more isolated. I would be hanging out at Purcell, OK if I didn't have to work tomorrow. I should be able to make Ardmore though and if the NAM trend continues, then this would be a great area. We'll see....as the models turn. ;-)
In carefully reviewing all of the model data this morning and tying to balance it all with known biasis as well as pattern recognition, I'll throw my thoughts in on the setup for tomorrow (Thursday).
It appears the the critical mid level jet core will be situated north of the Red River through 00Z. That's not good if you are on this the anticyclonic side of it. Subsidence leads to warming and strengthening the cap. With forecast instabilities, I don't see any tornado threat either with weaker storms...if they even form at all. I'm skeptical of anything firing south of the Red River until after sunset. Adding to this horsefly in the ointment will be the forecast right exit region of the 250mb jet spreading over S OK and N TX right at peak heating. More subsidence.
The ONLY thing that might help is some model forecasts of a right entrance region of the mid level jet streak moving across at peak heating. That might just pop off an isolated storm this side of Big Red. Still not a tornado threat in my opinion. If we were talking CAPE values of 3000, then I'd be more excited.
The best action will be across central Oklahoma in the proximity of I-40. The best jet dynamics combined with at least marginal instabilities will pop some pretty good storms and perhaps a tornado or two. The problem here will be a more veered boundary layer flow reducing helicities. Grrrrr.....
I'm beginning to think that the better tornado threat will emerge across KS/NE, but surface based instabilities will be very weak. However, some strong lapse rates will offset that.
It's all kind of a mess right now, but I don't place my bets anymore until the mroning of an event. I'll spout more about it in the morning.
I'm anchored to the S OK and N TX option, unfortunately. But, as I've learned over the many years that I've been watching Texas weather, don't ever bet against a dryline plowing intoa moist airmass with westerly perpendicular winds :-). LOL!! The jet core might end up being a little further south or a little more broad than advertised. The RRQ of mid level jet might be strong enough to offset the other negative factors. Those are longer odds of course. I'll be happy to see some great storm structure.
Beyond, Friday has an interesting possibility with much better moisture and stronger instabilities approaching 3000. With a stationary boundary hanging around and good heating, there will be enough shear with 30-40 knot mid level winds for a favorable storm-relative profile. Not a tornado threat, but a good storm to chase might pop up.
Sunday is really starting to catch my attention as this may indeed be the first good system with adequate mosture and isntabilities to work with. It's a ways off of course. After that, the longer range models are looking quite promising with what looks like a very active April. That figures because I'll be in Denver for training the entire second week of April. Mark your calendars now for at least two significant tornado outbreaks....and here in N TX and S OK. :-)
The good news is that my new VX-2100 is waiting for me when I get home. :-)
As a side note, the president of my personal fan club is retiring from public life after apparently accumulating his very own fan club members. I seriously doubt his absence will be permanent though. Drama queens are addicted to the spotlight much like bugs to a porchlight. Perhaps now a good dose of being on the receiving end of stalkers and personal vendettas will be a good, healthy learning experience for him. I don't know how the stormchasing world will ever survive now without a police force and judge keeping everybody in line and properly ranked. LOL!! I wish him the best. ;-)
In carefully reviewing all of the model data this morning and tying to balance it all with known biasis as well as pattern recognition, I'll throw my thoughts in on the setup for tomorrow (Thursday).
It appears the the critical mid level jet core will be situated north of the Red River through 00Z. That's not good if you are on this the anticyclonic side of it. Subsidence leads to warming and strengthening the cap. With forecast instabilities, I don't see any tornado threat either with weaker storms...if they even form at all. I'm skeptical of anything firing south of the Red River until after sunset. Adding to this horsefly in the ointment will be the forecast right exit region of the 250mb jet spreading over S OK and N TX right at peak heating. More subsidence.
The ONLY thing that might help is some model forecasts of a right entrance region of the mid level jet streak moving across at peak heating. That might just pop off an isolated storm this side of Big Red. Still not a tornado threat in my opinion. If we were talking CAPE values of 3000, then I'd be more excited.
The best action will be across central Oklahoma in the proximity of I-40. The best jet dynamics combined with at least marginal instabilities will pop some pretty good storms and perhaps a tornado or two. The problem here will be a more veered boundary layer flow reducing helicities. Grrrrr.....
I'm beginning to think that the better tornado threat will emerge across KS/NE, but surface based instabilities will be very weak. However, some strong lapse rates will offset that.
It's all kind of a mess right now, but I don't place my bets anymore until the mroning of an event. I'll spout more about it in the morning.
I'm anchored to the S OK and N TX option, unfortunately. But, as I've learned over the many years that I've been watching Texas weather, don't ever bet against a dryline plowing intoa moist airmass with westerly perpendicular winds :-). LOL!! The jet core might end up being a little further south or a little more broad than advertised. The RRQ of mid level jet might be strong enough to offset the other negative factors. Those are longer odds of course. I'll be happy to see some great storm structure.
Beyond, Friday has an interesting possibility with much better moisture and stronger instabilities approaching 3000. With a stationary boundary hanging around and good heating, there will be enough shear with 30-40 knot mid level winds for a favorable storm-relative profile. Not a tornado threat, but a good storm to chase might pop up.
Sunday is really starting to catch my attention as this may indeed be the first good system with adequate mosture and isntabilities to work with. It's a ways off of course. After that, the longer range models are looking quite promising with what looks like a very active April. That figures because I'll be in Denver for training the entire second week of April. Mark your calendars now for at least two significant tornado outbreaks....and here in N TX and S OK. :-)
The good news is that my new VX-2100 is waiting for me when I get home. :-)
As a side note, the president of my personal fan club is retiring from public life after apparently accumulating his very own fan club members. I seriously doubt his absence will be permanent though. Drama queens are addicted to the spotlight much like bugs to a porchlight. Perhaps now a good dose of being on the receiving end of stalkers and personal vendettas will be a good, healthy learning experience for him. I don't know how the stormchasing world will ever survive now without a police force and judge keeping everybody in line and properly ranked. LOL!! I wish him the best. ;-)
posted by Steve Miller TX at 3/29/2006 12:13:00 PM
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