4/6 Outlook or "Roll The Bones"
Without regurgitating all of the discussions for Nebraska into E KS and Missouri tomorrow, I'll chat about S OK and N TX since I'm anchored here and have a job. :-) However, that doesn't mean things won't explode around these parts either.
The models of course are spasmodic to say the least. The NAM is off it's rocker as usual with everything too fast and too far east. The 12z GooFuS is back to it's neurotic solution similar to it's whacky solution at 12z yesterday (the 00Z solution was starting to show some semblence of sanity). I think some tarot cards and a good Ouiji board would perform just as well. LOL!!
Fortunately, the expert gurus at NCEP identified those two as the problem children in trying to forecast this event...even while many discussions take the NAM at full face value. That's surprising to me given it's continual horrendous performance this season. The NCEP is siding with the slower ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET solutions of which have been the most solid and consistent models the past two days (and usually are). That is VERY important for residents of N TX and S OK if their combined solution is indeed verified. Without wishcasting, I'm siding with these models' solution. it makes no sense NOT to at this point. In fact, I'm fully expecting the two problem children to swing back towards these solutions...and then watch the alarm bells start being sounded for this region. :-)
The big cavet of course is the dewpoint depressions expected of ~20F as is typical now with North Texas climatology. Cold pool generation will be a problem along with higher LCLs. The thing to watch for will be the storm relative winds. If a storm roots on the dryline and/or becomes a right turner (thus slower movement), then the storm relative winds will be outstanding and I think a significantly increased tornado threat with those sustained cells. I do know that I've no desire to chase storms racing off at 50mph. So, my plan would be to hang around the dryline in hopeful anticipation of something finally getting firmly rooted. If it doesn't, I'll save gas and my sanity. :-) I do however have NO plans to stay at home and sit it out. The realistic season for me only lasts another 10-12 weeks. I chase. There will be plenty of time to sit at home afterwards.
The models of course are spasmodic to say the least. The NAM is off it's rocker as usual with everything too fast and too far east. The 12z GooFuS is back to it's neurotic solution similar to it's whacky solution at 12z yesterday (the 00Z solution was starting to show some semblence of sanity). I think some tarot cards and a good Ouiji board would perform just as well. LOL!!
Fortunately, the expert gurus at NCEP identified those two as the problem children in trying to forecast this event...even while many discussions take the NAM at full face value. That's surprising to me given it's continual horrendous performance this season. The NCEP is siding with the slower ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET solutions of which have been the most solid and consistent models the past two days (and usually are). That is VERY important for residents of N TX and S OK if their combined solution is indeed verified. Without wishcasting, I'm siding with these models' solution. it makes no sense NOT to at this point. In fact, I'm fully expecting the two problem children to swing back towards these solutions...and then watch the alarm bells start being sounded for this region. :-)
The big cavet of course is the dewpoint depressions expected of ~20F as is typical now with North Texas climatology. Cold pool generation will be a problem along with higher LCLs. The thing to watch for will be the storm relative winds. If a storm roots on the dryline and/or becomes a right turner (thus slower movement), then the storm relative winds will be outstanding and I think a significantly increased tornado threat with those sustained cells. I do know that I've no desire to chase storms racing off at 50mph. So, my plan would be to hang around the dryline in hopeful anticipation of something finally getting firmly rooted. If it doesn't, I'll save gas and my sanity. :-) I do however have NO plans to stay at home and sit it out. The realistic season for me only lasts another 10-12 weeks. I chase. There will be plenty of time to sit at home afterwards.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/05/2006 01:19:00 PM
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