4/2 Recap & Eyeing Thursday
4/1 pics, if you haven't seen them yet, can be found here.
4/2 pics are here.
I moseyed down to Waco yesterday lured by a stationary boundary and CAPE of 4000 with good shear. I liked the bullseyed parameters in that area along with a distinct kink in the boundary along with decent convergence. Cells started popping around Hillsboro, but I kept getting lured a little further SW by data analysis. Despite weakening convergence progged by the RUC, I figured that once a storm got going, it would sustain itself in the very unstable environment. Making things more difficult today would be somebody tripping over the power cord at the Fort Worth radar site. Just kidding, but it and the Granger radar were out most all day long. I had to use Dyess (Abilene) and San Antonio.
Pretty soon, a HUGE updraft exploded like a nuclear bomb into a large, very thick and crisp anvil (actually two cells close together) rapidly spreading out over Waco. It's by far the best structure I've seen all season. I picked up the pace and got around to McGregor to see the intense, rock solid updraft and crisp anvil hanging overhead. I was convinced that this would be a real monster. Sitting just south of Crawford, home of "Dubya" and bane of angry liberals everywhere, a local resident stopped by to tell me they just drove out of nickle hail.
Then, the updraft started waning just as it appeared to start going severe. It collapsed into a meager rain shower. I was thinking that this was just temporary, so I visited Crawford to see if any angry hippies and the Cindy Sheehan cult were lining the roadway. LOL!! Nope...very quiet and tranquil, but the patriotism was evident. There weren't even any black helicoptors or guys in suits and shades lurking around. I was disappointed. (For those of you starting to type up an angry blog entry or comment in response, I've voted Libertarian since 2000. Ha!)
Soon, another updraft erupted right over Crawford and this time, it looked like it meant business with a small beaver tail and flared base with rock solid updraft. They issued a SVR on it and looked great on radar. However, it wasn't long before it fizzled again and the successive updrafts trying to build and take it's place were looking very sick. I hung around for awhile to make sure that it fizzled, and then headed home.
I'm now looking forward to Thursday at yet another outbreak unfolding. Everybody will be talking about OK into Missouri and E KS, but I'll be keeping a close eye on North Texas based on the 00Z NAM. I have no faith in the NAM anymore this season..even with 12 hour forecasts. However, all of the models with the exception of the GooFuS model (I can't take credit for that nickname. LOL!) are in good agreement with the upper air feature. If the ECMWF is correct along with all of the models seeming to trend towards it's solution, then the mid level jet axis cuts right across N TX and S OK and good dryline punching into some moist, unstable air.
Dewpoint depressions again appear to approach 20F here at max heating, but a rapid cooling of the 700mb level prior to 00Z will result in some impressive 0-3km lapse rates and resultant 0-3km CAPE. If storms root on the dryline and move slower, then the storm relative shear would be quite impressive and help offset the cold pooling undercutting the updrafts. I think there is a potential tornadic supercell threat with that setup. But, the cold pool generation and outflow dominance will be a factor to overcome to be certain. If we get one or two lone isolated cells, that would help.
We'll see. It's kind of silly to try and get that specific this far out. But hey, I'm nuts anyway. LOL!!
4/2 pics are here.
I moseyed down to Waco yesterday lured by a stationary boundary and CAPE of 4000 with good shear. I liked the bullseyed parameters in that area along with a distinct kink in the boundary along with decent convergence. Cells started popping around Hillsboro, but I kept getting lured a little further SW by data analysis. Despite weakening convergence progged by the RUC, I figured that once a storm got going, it would sustain itself in the very unstable environment. Making things more difficult today would be somebody tripping over the power cord at the Fort Worth radar site. Just kidding, but it and the Granger radar were out most all day long. I had to use Dyess (Abilene) and San Antonio.
Pretty soon, a HUGE updraft exploded like a nuclear bomb into a large, very thick and crisp anvil (actually two cells close together) rapidly spreading out over Waco. It's by far the best structure I've seen all season. I picked up the pace and got around to McGregor to see the intense, rock solid updraft and crisp anvil hanging overhead. I was convinced that this would be a real monster. Sitting just south of Crawford, home of "Dubya" and bane of angry liberals everywhere, a local resident stopped by to tell me they just drove out of nickle hail.
Then, the updraft started waning just as it appeared to start going severe. It collapsed into a meager rain shower. I was thinking that this was just temporary, so I visited Crawford to see if any angry hippies and the Cindy Sheehan cult were lining the roadway. LOL!! Nope...very quiet and tranquil, but the patriotism was evident. There weren't even any black helicoptors or guys in suits and shades lurking around. I was disappointed. (For those of you starting to type up an angry blog entry or comment in response, I've voted Libertarian since 2000. Ha!)
Soon, another updraft erupted right over Crawford and this time, it looked like it meant business with a small beaver tail and flared base with rock solid updraft. They issued a SVR on it and looked great on radar. However, it wasn't long before it fizzled again and the successive updrafts trying to build and take it's place were looking very sick. I hung around for awhile to make sure that it fizzled, and then headed home.
I'm now looking forward to Thursday at yet another outbreak unfolding. Everybody will be talking about OK into Missouri and E KS, but I'll be keeping a close eye on North Texas based on the 00Z NAM. I have no faith in the NAM anymore this season..even with 12 hour forecasts. However, all of the models with the exception of the GooFuS model (I can't take credit for that nickname. LOL!) are in good agreement with the upper air feature. If the ECMWF is correct along with all of the models seeming to trend towards it's solution, then the mid level jet axis cuts right across N TX and S OK and good dryline punching into some moist, unstable air.
Dewpoint depressions again appear to approach 20F here at max heating, but a rapid cooling of the 700mb level prior to 00Z will result in some impressive 0-3km lapse rates and resultant 0-3km CAPE. If storms root on the dryline and move slower, then the storm relative shear would be quite impressive and help offset the cold pooling undercutting the updrafts. I think there is a potential tornadic supercell threat with that setup. But, the cold pool generation and outflow dominance will be a factor to overcome to be certain. If we get one or two lone isolated cells, that would help.
We'll see. It's kind of silly to try and get that specific this far out. But hey, I'm nuts anyway. LOL!!
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/03/2006 10:04:00 PM
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