Central TX Today and 4/1 Recap
4/1 pics are online: http://www.texastailchaser.com/chases/2006/April1/pictures
Yesterday, my good friend and chase partner Glenn Dixon, headed out to what we thought would be a tornado day. April Fools!!! LOL!! On the way to Childress, I was monitoring data and saw that the dewpoints were struggling to get into the "hatched tornado area" in addition to some mixing and dewpoint cratering just ahead of the dryline across the TX PH. On the otherhand, dewpoints looked better further south and I analyzed a pronounced, sharpening dryline punch through SE NM taking aim on Lubbock. Satellite analysis of the Cu fields there confirmed it. The RUC had continually been forecasting some ascent and decent mid level winds to overspread this area towards 21z and at one point forecast some convection down there. So, we kind of hesitated around Childress an started working our way westward.
A cell quickly popped up west of Matador and I made the decision to target it. Winds were backed nicely down there with lower 60Td and some mid to upper 60Td not too far away in the "source region". Unfortunately, several other cells decided they wanted in on the action and joined the party. Supercells are better as loners. :-) So, with all of the competition between them and being in close proximity, they undercut and contaminated each other (sorta like some aspects of the chase community, eh? LOL!!)
We followed the big cluster all the way to just across the Red River. We saw many wall clouds, shelf clouds, and plenty of higher based linear crap. this was puzzling because the low level inflow was screaming into these storms from the S to SE. I kept expecting a tail-end supercell to get organized and go nuts, but that didn't happen. We were treated to some good structure though towards sunset near Vernon. It had a striatated appearence with a couple of good inflow bands. We followed it across Big Red and setup shop to do some lightning photography. I got a few decent shots, but nothing to really write home about.
Interestingly, at one point after dark, a nice outflow boundary arced gracefully back into some new updrafts erupting near Vernon. you could clearly make this out on radar and the boundary had gone stationary. For one radar scan, the cell on the tail end near Vernon tried to hook on that boundary. It fizzled and everything then ended up on the cool side of the boundary.
So, what happened? In my opinion, two things. First, dewpoints were once again about 3-5F less than progged. This is emerging as a common theme this season. The dewpoint depressions were simply too high...15-20F. That's a good cold pooll generator. Secondly, the mid level storm relative winds were pitiful . With 500mb SW flow at 35-45 knots and 700mb SW at 30-40mph and at best and storm motions 30-40 mph, you get 15mph or less storm-relative winds. That's a sure-fire recipe for HP storms in my book. that was quite evident by what i witnessed too. As soon as an updraft waould mature and try to develop a wall cloud, boom, an intense preicp core would occur smack dab in the middle of it.
OK, so I didn't get enough abuse, I'm headed to central TX today. Something about LIs approaching -12 and CAPE over 4000 seems to be a refreshing change of pace so far this season. I think I'll go have a look-see. Stationary boundary with parallel mid level winds could make for an interesting setup in a highly unstable environment.
Yesterday, my good friend and chase partner Glenn Dixon, headed out to what we thought would be a tornado day. April Fools!!! LOL!! On the way to Childress, I was monitoring data and saw that the dewpoints were struggling to get into the "hatched tornado area" in addition to some mixing and dewpoint cratering just ahead of the dryline across the TX PH. On the otherhand, dewpoints looked better further south and I analyzed a pronounced, sharpening dryline punch through SE NM taking aim on Lubbock. Satellite analysis of the Cu fields there confirmed it. The RUC had continually been forecasting some ascent and decent mid level winds to overspread this area towards 21z and at one point forecast some convection down there. So, we kind of hesitated around Childress an started working our way westward.
A cell quickly popped up west of Matador and I made the decision to target it. Winds were backed nicely down there with lower 60Td and some mid to upper 60Td not too far away in the "source region". Unfortunately, several other cells decided they wanted in on the action and joined the party. Supercells are better as loners. :-) So, with all of the competition between them and being in close proximity, they undercut and contaminated each other (sorta like some aspects of the chase community, eh? LOL!!)
We followed the big cluster all the way to just across the Red River. We saw many wall clouds, shelf clouds, and plenty of higher based linear crap. this was puzzling because the low level inflow was screaming into these storms from the S to SE. I kept expecting a tail-end supercell to get organized and go nuts, but that didn't happen. We were treated to some good structure though towards sunset near Vernon. It had a striatated appearence with a couple of good inflow bands. We followed it across Big Red and setup shop to do some lightning photography. I got a few decent shots, but nothing to really write home about.
Interestingly, at one point after dark, a nice outflow boundary arced gracefully back into some new updrafts erupting near Vernon. you could clearly make this out on radar and the boundary had gone stationary. For one radar scan, the cell on the tail end near Vernon tried to hook on that boundary. It fizzled and everything then ended up on the cool side of the boundary.
So, what happened? In my opinion, two things. First, dewpoints were once again about 3-5F less than progged. This is emerging as a common theme this season. The dewpoint depressions were simply too high...15-20F. That's a good cold pooll generator. Secondly, the mid level storm relative winds were pitiful . With 500mb SW flow at 35-45 knots and 700mb SW at 30-40mph and at best and storm motions 30-40 mph, you get 15mph or less storm-relative winds. That's a sure-fire recipe for HP storms in my book. that was quite evident by what i witnessed too. As soon as an updraft waould mature and try to develop a wall cloud, boom, an intense preicp core would occur smack dab in the middle of it.
OK, so I didn't get enough abuse, I'm headed to central TX today. Something about LIs approaching -12 and CAPE over 4000 seems to be a refreshing change of pace so far this season. I think I'll go have a look-see. Stationary boundary with parallel mid level winds could make for an interesting setup in a highly unstable environment.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/02/2006 11:32:00 AM
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