Off to see the wizard....
It's mid April, negative tilt trough, bulging dryline, a Saturday, and it's Kansas. Why not? ;-) The moisture inadequencies will certainly make it nearly impossible for tornadoes of course with higher LCLs and cold pool generation. However, a couple of isolated, strong supercells are likely possibly as far south as Northern Oklahoma...southern Kansas definitely. Everybody and their cat will be trekking to Nebraska today for a possible cold core setup, but this is more of an open wave instead of a closed core. There are indications that the mid and upper winds will be relatively weak across NE except the extreme E/SE parts. It will be interesting to see how that plays out. It's too far for me anyway.
For KS, I'm liking the forecast mid level jet cutting across the KS/OK border and a pronounced left exit region of upper jets (300-200mb) moving across the southern half of KS and far northern OK. I don't see anything to create subsidence, so it's my opinion that the dryline will spark a few isolated cells from N KS down to far northern OK. Profiles will support rotating storms without a doubt. A decent surge of lower 60Td is moving up the I-35 corridor and if we can avoid the mixing ahead of the dryline, should see the 60Td isodrosotherm into S/SE KS. A more pessimistic forecast would have the 60Td mark just north of I-40. Moisture convergence and even a small contribution from evapotranspiration might aid the cause today. It will be something I'll monitor hourly today as I head up I-35.
Overall, I'd love to play the dryline bulge across the northern half of Kansas if I can reach it today from N TX. But, moisture might be pitiful up there too (another concern about NE). So, my "loose" target will be Wichita, KS with refinement as real time data analysis dictates. Maybe I'll team up with some of my Tulsa homies and discuss the next phase of muscling in on the plains. ;-)
In the crystal ball for later April, the upper air patterns start making a significant shift next week. There are distant visions of a split flow setting up with a subtropical jet regime across the southern plains with a large, persistent trough along the left coast. My cat agrees. ;-)
Good luck to all venturing out today!
For KS, I'm liking the forecast mid level jet cutting across the KS/OK border and a pronounced left exit region of upper jets (300-200mb) moving across the southern half of KS and far northern OK. I don't see anything to create subsidence, so it's my opinion that the dryline will spark a few isolated cells from N KS down to far northern OK. Profiles will support rotating storms without a doubt. A decent surge of lower 60Td is moving up the I-35 corridor and if we can avoid the mixing ahead of the dryline, should see the 60Td isodrosotherm into S/SE KS. A more pessimistic forecast would have the 60Td mark just north of I-40. Moisture convergence and even a small contribution from evapotranspiration might aid the cause today. It will be something I'll monitor hourly today as I head up I-35.
Overall, I'd love to play the dryline bulge across the northern half of Kansas if I can reach it today from N TX. But, moisture might be pitiful up there too (another concern about NE). So, my "loose" target will be Wichita, KS with refinement as real time data analysis dictates. Maybe I'll team up with some of my Tulsa homies and discuss the next phase of muscling in on the plains. ;-)
In the crystal ball for later April, the upper air patterns start making a significant shift next week. There are distant visions of a split flow setting up with a subtropical jet regime across the southern plains with a large, persistent trough along the left coast. My cat agrees. ;-)
Good luck to all venturing out today!
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/15/2006 07:13:00 AM
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