Drought Crisis
Greetings from the beautiful Mile High City! The weather here in Denver is nothing short of spectacular this week. Clear blue skies with the stunning snow-topped mountains to the west is a nice change of pace. I'm hoping for a quick trip up to the mountains for some photo ops. With 70's for highs, I'm enjoying it a helluva lot more than the -13F chaser convection in February. I'll be back in plenty of time for Saturday's possible chase. After looking at the models, I'm actually seriously concerned about the drought.
Climatologically, Texas is starting to run out of time to get any beneficial widespread rains. As I had ranted about back in January, we seriously needed at least a "normal spring" to prevent an even more critical drought situation for 2006 than we saw for 2005. Unfortunately, the drought has continued throughout March and now here it is approaching mid April with no relief on the horizon. Sure, there were some small regions of heavy rainfall the weekend of March 18/19, particularly across N Texas, but that is only a drop in the bucket comparatively.
I had alot of hope as of yesterday that a strong upper air system advertised by the medium range forecast models would give us a good shot of rain next weekend. This morning, hopes were dashed by considerable agreement among all of the models to once again send the energy well to the north of Texas....leaving most of the state high and dry. This pattern trend has really been ongoing since 1996 (with a couple of exceptions like 2004), but it hasn't firmly locked into place until early 2005.
As you can see by the official drought analysis, we are still in serious shape. In fact, the drought has expanded to include four states from Arizona to now most of Oklahoma. The bottom line is that we need a serious change in the upper air pattern to move big, slow storm systems across these areas instead of deflecting into the central plains. I have watched in disbelief for all of March and the first part of April now all of the strong upper air storm systems track right through Kansas. Normally, this storm track would come through Texas in March. It's as if the entire atmosphere has been shifted north 500-1000 miles. Not only that, but the critical low level moisture has been severely lacking as well with dewpoints barely struggling above 60 and then usually pretty shallow. Everything is working against us while the "Left Coast" in the west is flooding. For stormchasers, it means you have to go to Kansas and Nebraska. Chasers that live up there don't have a true appreciation of the ability to chase in the own backyard. Yes, I'm jealous and bitter about it. LOL!!
Another result of such an expansive drought will be to further strengthen the capping inversions across OK and TX. I think we have been seeing the results of that. Since the EML source (region for the capping inversion 3-10k feet) is in the middle of the severe to extreme drought areas, it certainly seems logical to me that this airmass will be warmer and drier than normal and advected across TX and OK. Interestingly, the TX PH region is in a severe drought too and it will be interesting to see if this affects southern Kansas.
For residents of Texas, it means that Stage 5 and 6 drought contingency plans stand a good chance of being implemented this year. I'm truly disappointed that the news media isn't seriously focusing on this yet. Perhaps it's the failure of the state to push them on it. Maybe they need to "sensationalize" it for the media to pay any attention. I dunno. The bottom line is that most residents will be slapped in the face by a harsh reality this summer. Here is a sample of what's to come later this year if the drought continues into August/September (I'm praying for a tropical system):
1) Water bills will skyrocket.
2) NO car washing either residential or commercial. Yep, your local "Kar Wash" will be forced to shut down.
3) NO lawn watering or at least severely and aggressively curtailed to once every two weeks. Commercial watering will be banned totally.
4) Monthly allotted household water use. Using a formula based on household occupants, you will only be allowed to use a specific number of gallons per month. 5) NO swimming pools. You'll have to drain it.
6) Lakes will be closed to boating and perhaps all recreational use. The levels will be too low creating a serious boating hazard to EVERYBODY including old timers familiar with it. It in effect becomes a new lake and not one map anywhere will be accurate. Besides, the boat ramps will probably be high and dry anyway. The water also becomes dangerously stagnant and a biohazard. Things like brain-eating protozoa will thrive. (I'm not making that up either...look it up.)
That's just a few of the unpleasant things on the horizon for all of us. Lake Benbrook for example had an entire marina out of the water and no usable boat ramps (per a local TV news station story prior to the 3/19 heavy rain event) . That's the first time ever that Marina has run dry in it's over 30 years of existence. Here is a report for that lake showing it plunged to half of it's capacity by the end of February. Notice how quickly it can deviate too.
Overall state reservoir capacity is pretty low for the early 2006 season and a sharp drop from 2005 comparing a 12 month interval. This graphic makes that very clear...and the we are running well below the "median average". But that doesn't tell the whole story. All of the High Plains reservoirs are down to 20-30% of normal capacity. Lakes are drying up out there..literally!! I have no idea what those poor folks are going to do. The Low Rolling Plains and Southern Texas are at 60% capacity. Even here in North Texas, we are only at 80% capacity (thanks only to the 3/18-19 rain event) and normally, we should be at 100% for mid April with water being released. The only places in good shape are in the east.
Right now, the DFW region is rapidly expanding it's population base and naturally it's water consumption. We have not expanded our water supply however. Even though there are a couple of reservoirs not even being tapped yet, there's no infrastructure in place to get that water. That is only for future water planning..not for emergency use. As we saw last year, municipalities are stretched as it is. A couple of cities, like Allen for example, have already asked residents to begin implementing volunteer rationing. They warned residents that by not decreasing overall water consumption by 10% before June, they would enact stronger mandatory rationing. Many other cities are preparing similar plans. I see alot of lawn sprinklers going right now since we haven't had any rain for weeks now. My lawn is looking pitiful, but not in danger yet. So, I'm holding off for another week...trying to do my part and give mother nature a chance to do it.
Okay, that's a helluva rant. It'd be nice if more than a handful of people would actually read my blog. LOL!!! 2006 indeed is going to be an interesting one. We are already surpassing the "Dust Bowl" era in terms of rainfall records. So, I'm not hyping up the seriousness of this. Long range models and CPC predictions aren't looking good. Pray for rain...and lots of it.
Climatologically, Texas is starting to run out of time to get any beneficial widespread rains. As I had ranted about back in January, we seriously needed at least a "normal spring" to prevent an even more critical drought situation for 2006 than we saw for 2005. Unfortunately, the drought has continued throughout March and now here it is approaching mid April with no relief on the horizon. Sure, there were some small regions of heavy rainfall the weekend of March 18/19, particularly across N Texas, but that is only a drop in the bucket comparatively.
I had alot of hope as of yesterday that a strong upper air system advertised by the medium range forecast models would give us a good shot of rain next weekend. This morning, hopes were dashed by considerable agreement among all of the models to once again send the energy well to the north of Texas....leaving most of the state high and dry. This pattern trend has really been ongoing since 1996 (with a couple of exceptions like 2004), but it hasn't firmly locked into place until early 2005.
As you can see by the official drought analysis, we are still in serious shape. In fact, the drought has expanded to include four states from Arizona to now most of Oklahoma. The bottom line is that we need a serious change in the upper air pattern to move big, slow storm systems across these areas instead of deflecting into the central plains. I have watched in disbelief for all of March and the first part of April now all of the strong upper air storm systems track right through Kansas. Normally, this storm track would come through Texas in March. It's as if the entire atmosphere has been shifted north 500-1000 miles. Not only that, but the critical low level moisture has been severely lacking as well with dewpoints barely struggling above 60 and then usually pretty shallow. Everything is working against us while the "Left Coast" in the west is flooding. For stormchasers, it means you have to go to Kansas and Nebraska. Chasers that live up there don't have a true appreciation of the ability to chase in the own backyard. Yes, I'm jealous and bitter about it. LOL!!
Another result of such an expansive drought will be to further strengthen the capping inversions across OK and TX. I think we have been seeing the results of that. Since the EML source (region for the capping inversion 3-10k feet) is in the middle of the severe to extreme drought areas, it certainly seems logical to me that this airmass will be warmer and drier than normal and advected across TX and OK. Interestingly, the TX PH region is in a severe drought too and it will be interesting to see if this affects southern Kansas.
For residents of Texas, it means that Stage 5 and 6 drought contingency plans stand a good chance of being implemented this year. I'm truly disappointed that the news media isn't seriously focusing on this yet. Perhaps it's the failure of the state to push them on it. Maybe they need to "sensationalize" it for the media to pay any attention. I dunno. The bottom line is that most residents will be slapped in the face by a harsh reality this summer. Here is a sample of what's to come later this year if the drought continues into August/September (I'm praying for a tropical system):
1) Water bills will skyrocket.
2) NO car washing either residential or commercial. Yep, your local "Kar Wash" will be forced to shut down.
3) NO lawn watering or at least severely and aggressively curtailed to once every two weeks. Commercial watering will be banned totally.
4) Monthly allotted household water use. Using a formula based on household occupants, you will only be allowed to use a specific number of gallons per month. 5) NO swimming pools. You'll have to drain it.
6) Lakes will be closed to boating and perhaps all recreational use. The levels will be too low creating a serious boating hazard to EVERYBODY including old timers familiar with it. It in effect becomes a new lake and not one map anywhere will be accurate. Besides, the boat ramps will probably be high and dry anyway. The water also becomes dangerously stagnant and a biohazard. Things like brain-eating protozoa will thrive. (I'm not making that up either...look it up.)
That's just a few of the unpleasant things on the horizon for all of us. Lake Benbrook for example had an entire marina out of the water and no usable boat ramps (per a local TV news station story prior to the 3/19 heavy rain event) . That's the first time ever that Marina has run dry in it's over 30 years of existence. Here is a report for that lake showing it plunged to half of it's capacity by the end of February. Notice how quickly it can deviate too.
Overall state reservoir capacity is pretty low for the early 2006 season and a sharp drop from 2005 comparing a 12 month interval. This graphic makes that very clear...and the we are running well below the "median average". But that doesn't tell the whole story. All of the High Plains reservoirs are down to 20-30% of normal capacity. Lakes are drying up out there..literally!! I have no idea what those poor folks are going to do. The Low Rolling Plains and Southern Texas are at 60% capacity. Even here in North Texas, we are only at 80% capacity (thanks only to the 3/18-19 rain event) and normally, we should be at 100% for mid April with water being released. The only places in good shape are in the east.
Right now, the DFW region is rapidly expanding it's population base and naturally it's water consumption. We have not expanded our water supply however. Even though there are a couple of reservoirs not even being tapped yet, there's no infrastructure in place to get that water. That is only for future water planning..not for emergency use. As we saw last year, municipalities are stretched as it is. A couple of cities, like Allen for example, have already asked residents to begin implementing volunteer rationing. They warned residents that by not decreasing overall water consumption by 10% before June, they would enact stronger mandatory rationing. Many other cities are preparing similar plans. I see alot of lawn sprinklers going right now since we haven't had any rain for weeks now. My lawn is looking pitiful, but not in danger yet. So, I'm holding off for another week...trying to do my part and give mother nature a chance to do it.
Okay, that's a helluva rant. It'd be nice if more than a handful of people would actually read my blog. LOL!!! 2006 indeed is going to be an interesting one. We are already surpassing the "Dust Bowl" era in terms of rainfall records. So, I'm not hyping up the seriousness of this. Long range models and CPC predictions aren't looking good. Pray for rain...and lots of it.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/09/2006 08:58:00 AM
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