2006 Inaugural Chase Update #1
Intersting to note that since my post yesterday, the GFS fell back into line with the ECMWF...another reason why the EC is my preference for crystal ball gazing.
Right now, I think the upper air pattern being forecast is a good one. I'll bite on it. The scenario I painted yesterday of a big honking squall line doesn't appear likely at this point in time. The biggest variable in my opinion will be the weak cool front by mid week. How far south will it sag? How far will it retreat northward as a warmfront by Friday/Saturday?
There are indications that the front may in fact end up stretching across the Red River Valley and North Texas with precip to the north of it. With a good southerly low level jet perpendicular to it and the mid level winds parallel to it, things could get a little more interesting. The other caveats like instability of course will be an issue since it is the first week of March.
I can't wait for the next model run. :-)
Right now, I think the upper air pattern being forecast is a good one. I'll bite on it. The scenario I painted yesterday of a big honking squall line doesn't appear likely at this point in time. The biggest variable in my opinion will be the weak cool front by mid week. How far south will it sag? How far will it retreat northward as a warmfront by Friday/Saturday?
There are indications that the front may in fact end up stretching across the Red River Valley and North Texas with precip to the north of it. With a good southerly low level jet perpendicular to it and the mid level winds parallel to it, things could get a little more interesting. The other caveats like instability of course will be an issue since it is the first week of March.
I can't wait for the next model run. :-)
posted by Steve Miller TX at 2/27/2006 12:28:00 PM
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