Forecasting March Madness & Severe Weather Workshop
TODAY - I'm liking some of the parameters coming together for a sleeper event today in the TX/OK panhandle. Combining the 12z NAM and RUC with a lean towards the RUC, I'll be targeting Amarillo to Guymon and east of that line as any storm that can pop moves into better moisture, instability and helicities. The expected storm motions will generally be east which I am quite fond of. This will place the moderately strong boundary layer flow perpendicular to the storm motion. This could cause storms to do a little right turn jog.
Alot of today depends on where the dryline sets up in relation to the forecast mid level impulse coming out of NM along with an impenging upper level jet nose into my forecast area creating some slight diffluence and divergence. VERY steep low level lapse rates (AMA forecast sounding is dry adiabatic to 700mb!) and decent mid level lapse rates are expected with MLCAPE 500-1000 j/kg when tempering the RUC forecast of nearly 2000 which that model often overdoes (when will they fix that?). Various helicity parameters pretty much bullseye the eastern OK PH in the the NE TX PH.
The major concern is both models showing nothing really developing by 00Z. I assume this is due to an expected capping inversion and weak boundary layer convergence. But, looking at NAM forecast soundings, it doesn't look all that formidable given that the AMA forecast sounding has little if any cap, albeit high LCLs. :-) In my opinion, the weak mid level impulse combined with some marginal upper jet dynamics, some weak surface convergence, and daytime heating should be enough to pop an isolated storm or two. The SPC has a conditional threat for us too.
With that in mind, I'll continue to monitor things to try and narrow down a more specific target based on expected initiation..pretty much where the dryline tries to setup. I have this funny feeling it may end up further west based on the current surface analysis. But, the day is still young and plenty of time to start mixing out the shallow moisture across the higher terrain.
For tomorrow, moisture quality and resultant instability forecasts will be an issue preventing a more serious tornado outbreak, but definitely a severe weather event is shaping up nicely. For me, the question is a target area. I'm strongly favoring far SW OK and the Red River Valley into NW TX. The models want to keep precip along and north of Big Red, so I want to be careful in being too far south. It definitely looks like a tail-end charlie play for sure. My plan is to head to Childress and wait for the situation to unfold...as usual. :-)
Yesterday, I spent a fun-filled day haning out at the Channel 4 KAMR booth at the Severe Weather Workshop in Amarillo. I met lots of nice folks and was able to hang out with Jay McCoy, Jason Boggs and Chris Nuttall along with the guys from the station. The presentations were pretty good and informal, but the one to note was Dr. Kevin Kloesel educating everybody as to the differences between a tornado and downburst event.
Huge kudos to him for making it not only entertaining, but keeping it simple for the non-met heads. I really felt like he made a difference in changing some misconceptions in the audience...in addition to spotters and how they report such events. He used some interesting science tricks including suspending a huge inflatable ball inthe air with a leaf blower....and tilting the darned thing at about a 45 degree angle and still keeping the ball suspended!
He also simulated a downburst with vortex rings using a trash can covered with a tight piece of rubber and a circular hole cut in the bottom of the can filled with fogging smoke. He'd tap on the top which created a perfect "smoke ring" that would eject out over the audience. He put a plastic cup on a guy's head about 20-30 feet away and knocked it off.
Overall a very interesting and informational presentation. Dr. Kloesel is very enthusiastic and knowlegable....very effective!
Also of note, my friend Steve Douglass had very nice visual presentation about the Texas Panhandle weather and skies. I though he did an excellent job in capturing the essence and spirit of the place I am proud and fortunate to call home now. Of course, I can't pass up the fact that he won the grand door prize a big LCD TV!!! What a bum! ;-) Be sure to visit his blog which I linked to above and over in the right column. He has an excellent artcle he just posted with some nice tips and advice. You can see some of his great imagery as well!!!
During the Channel 4 presentation by John Harris, myself, Jay and Jason were recognized as being a part of their team. The cool thing was Jay's dad, a long time and famous TV weatherman in the Amarillo market, was recognized and received a standing ovation from the entire audience. What a fitting tribute to have everybody warmly acknowlege Roy McCoy's career and impact on the community here where the weather plays such a tremendous role in people's lives.
I'll post some pics down the road, but for now, it's time to get things ready to head out the door! I will be streaming live video today, so check out my LIVE CHASE PAGE!
Alot of today depends on where the dryline sets up in relation to the forecast mid level impulse coming out of NM along with an impenging upper level jet nose into my forecast area creating some slight diffluence and divergence. VERY steep low level lapse rates (AMA forecast sounding is dry adiabatic to 700mb!) and decent mid level lapse rates are expected with MLCAPE 500-1000 j/kg when tempering the RUC forecast of nearly 2000 which that model often overdoes (when will they fix that?). Various helicity parameters pretty much bullseye the eastern OK PH in the the NE TX PH.
The major concern is both models showing nothing really developing by 00Z. I assume this is due to an expected capping inversion and weak boundary layer convergence. But, looking at NAM forecast soundings, it doesn't look all that formidable given that the AMA forecast sounding has little if any cap, albeit high LCLs. :-) In my opinion, the weak mid level impulse combined with some marginal upper jet dynamics, some weak surface convergence, and daytime heating should be enough to pop an isolated storm or two. The SPC has a conditional threat for us too.
With that in mind, I'll continue to monitor things to try and narrow down a more specific target based on expected initiation..pretty much where the dryline tries to setup. I have this funny feeling it may end up further west based on the current surface analysis. But, the day is still young and plenty of time to start mixing out the shallow moisture across the higher terrain.
For tomorrow, moisture quality and resultant instability forecasts will be an issue preventing a more serious tornado outbreak, but definitely a severe weather event is shaping up nicely. For me, the question is a target area. I'm strongly favoring far SW OK and the Red River Valley into NW TX. The models want to keep precip along and north of Big Red, so I want to be careful in being too far south. It definitely looks like a tail-end charlie play for sure. My plan is to head to Childress and wait for the situation to unfold...as usual. :-)
Yesterday, I spent a fun-filled day haning out at the Channel 4 KAMR booth at the Severe Weather Workshop in Amarillo. I met lots of nice folks and was able to hang out with Jay McCoy, Jason Boggs and Chris Nuttall along with the guys from the station. The presentations were pretty good and informal, but the one to note was Dr. Kevin Kloesel educating everybody as to the differences between a tornado and downburst event.
Huge kudos to him for making it not only entertaining, but keeping it simple for the non-met heads. I really felt like he made a difference in changing some misconceptions in the audience...in addition to spotters and how they report such events. He used some interesting science tricks including suspending a huge inflatable ball inthe air with a leaf blower....and tilting the darned thing at about a 45 degree angle and still keeping the ball suspended!
He also simulated a downburst with vortex rings using a trash can covered with a tight piece of rubber and a circular hole cut in the bottom of the can filled with fogging smoke. He'd tap on the top which created a perfect "smoke ring" that would eject out over the audience. He put a plastic cup on a guy's head about 20-30 feet away and knocked it off.
Overall a very interesting and informational presentation. Dr. Kloesel is very enthusiastic and knowlegable....very effective!
Also of note, my friend Steve Douglass had very nice visual presentation about the Texas Panhandle weather and skies. I though he did an excellent job in capturing the essence and spirit of the place I am proud and fortunate to call home now. Of course, I can't pass up the fact that he won the grand door prize a big LCD TV!!! What a bum! ;-) Be sure to visit his blog which I linked to above and over in the right column. He has an excellent artcle he just posted with some nice tips and advice. You can see some of his great imagery as well!!!
During the Channel 4 presentation by John Harris, myself, Jay and Jason were recognized as being a part of their team. The cool thing was Jay's dad, a long time and famous TV weatherman in the Amarillo market, was recognized and received a standing ovation from the entire audience. What a fitting tribute to have everybody warmly acknowlege Roy McCoy's career and impact on the community here where the weather plays such a tremendous role in people's lives.
I'll post some pics down the road, but for now, it's time to get things ready to head out the door! I will be streaming live video today, so check out my LIVE CHASE PAGE!
posted by Steve Miller TX at 3/22/2009 10:12:00 AM
1 Comments:
Happy hunting Steve!!
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