A Crack In The Atmosphere? (and other musings)

There are FINALLY some signs of hope in the crystal ball to get out of this bizarre June-like upper air pattern and one more akin to the actual calendar. I'm not sounding the trumpets of hallalujah just yet, but I am starting to practice my world famous "Forbidden Sacred Dance of Chaser Merriment". :-)

What is being advertised is a favorable split flow jet stream pattern shaping up. What this means for the central and in particular the southern plains are more active storm systems traversing a lower latitude path than what we've seen for awhile. We should start seeing some changes this weekend and gradually increasing 8-14 days. In fact, there might even be a chase opportunity Saturday/Sunday. Heck, there might even be a little convective episode inTexas by about Thursday/Friday along a stationary warm front in central Texas as a weak impulse traverses that area. But, the weekend is something to keep an eye on closer to home and with a better upper system.

This of course is still just a little far away on the horizon and I want to see a couple more model runs and a better consensus with the spaghetti ensembles, the GFS operational, and the ECMWF. The whacky upper air pattern is one proving difficult for the models to get a grip on and being such a strong transitional phase forecast, are vulnerable to wild fluctuations. All of that just to say "I'm not sold just yet". LOL!!

Yesterday, I had stated that the GOM was in sad shape moisture wise. I was completely wrong!! Current observations and upper air analysis show a rather robust moisture supply available from the surface to 850mb. Dewpoints even into the NW parts of GOM just off the Texas shoreline are around 70F. A shortwave traversing the gulf coast into Florida will impact the northern half of the GOM and cause an initial impediment to moisture return with the weekend systems, but I figure with 2-3 days return flow, we'll see a nice surge of fuel to work with. I'm not entirely sure why the GFS is so pessimistic about it at this point. The thing to watch is how that model will react as the week progresses.

Onto other matters.....

I'm hoping to join a local station here this weekend for the big severe weather seminar at the Civic Center. The reason I say that is because I was pretty certain the station was going to sign me up to stormchase for them this year including live streaming video. I've worked with them to help get it set up and offered to do even more to help. There was a promise of my services already being budgeted for. But now, that's not so sure any more since this has gone up the corporate ladder. Despite my efforts to try and nail something down as to the business arrangements, I get the distinct feeling that I'm not part of their plans anymore. Unreturned phone calls and emails are a pretty sure sign, don't you think? Again, this is at the corporate levels and not the chief met himself who wants me to help them out this year and vice versa. I'd love to chase for them. But, I won't do it for free.

So, I'm going to shop around the other stations and if this station wants me to help them out, I'll hear something back. If not, well, it's just business. Heck, nobody may want me at all! LOL!! That's ok too. I'll continue to stream video to the NWS and help them as well as any local emergency managers or spotter groups as I have done for many years. I was just hoping to apply my skills and technology to aid one of the local stations to better warn folks and in return help cover my expenses. I'm not that desperate to work for the stations for free just to "see my name in lights". ROFL!

Okay, outside of that little bitter tirade (lol), I just put a set of GOOD tires on my vehicle. I decided to go with the Goodyear Fortera Triple Treads. They have superior wet and snow/ice traction due to their innovative and unique tread design (I sound like an advertisement, no?). After a scary hydroplaning incident last year, I decided that the extra money was good insurance as well as peace of mind. After all, as stormchasers, we spend a considerable amount of time in extreme environments involving rain-slicked and even flooded roads. This is especially true in the flat terrain of West Texas and the Panhandle where ponding of water is common along with runoff streams. In addition to the snow we get out here and my expected 25+ mile one-way commutes to work, it really is a necessity in having the best tires on the vehicle. My luck might eventually run out if I don't. ;-)

Sometime this week, I'm planning a road trip back to McKinney and DFW area to see friends and take care of one last bit of business. I'm curious to see just how much things have changed in the two years since I've escaped that wretched, festering armpit of civilization. ;-) I'll be making various stops along the way there and back possibly involving a fishing trip at Lake Ray Roberts. It's a cheap little mini-vacation before I hit the ground running with the new job.

Speaking of which, ya'll will get a laugh out of this. I received a jury summons late last week. It's the first one I've ever received in which I still lived in the county I was called up for. It's important to remember I've lived here for a little over two years now at the same place and never received a summons before. So.....I get this one and I'm to report next Monday...the first day of my new job!! ROFL!!! What are the odds? Pretty astronomical. But then, that's the way my life rolls along. I wish such luck would translate into hitting the jackpot so I could hurry up and be a millionaire. I'm tired of waiting! ;-)

That's it for now. I'll likely update late this week as I return back and look ahead to the upcoming pattern change...IF it happens. ;-)