Thoughts On the 2009 Season

As March looms on the calendar along with a string of balmy days here in the Panhandle, mystic rhythms in both the atmosphere and a stormchaser's soul begin to sync up. The anticipation of strong, moist low level flow being assaulted by the dryline grows exponentially. Such battles among the airmasses spawn majestic supercells which explode into the upper boundaries of the troposphere. Today, I am just as mesmerized and awe-struck as I was nearly 40 years ago as a young boy growing up in North Central Texas. I truly cherish that part of my childhood carried over into middle age. I freely and proudly admit that stormchasing allows me to once again be a kid at heart if only for a few moments.

So, I begin to wonder what 2009 will hold in store for me. With the exception of 2006, I have witnessed some incredible atmospheric events every year without fail. Heck, even in 2006, I got to witness a powerful HP beast in eastern Colorado. So even in a "bad year", I at least experience one significant jaw-dropping event. With that said, I am now becoming greatly concerned with the ever increasing and expanding drought in Texas. If we can't get some good rainfall in March and April, then I'm afraid we'll see a repeat of 2006. That was a year of paper-thin moisture that would severely scour out by afternoon with dewpoint depressions of 40-50F common.

One particular area of concern is the extremely severe drought in central Texas and the hill country all the way to the coast. As we get into May, evapotranspiration plays a large role in aiding moisture into West Texas and the Panhandle. The "source region" for us is central and southern Texas. Certainly the moisture from the warm waters of the Gulf Of Mexico are the major source of moisture return. But as it moves over the large drought areas before it gets up here, it disperses and mixes out more with daytime heating. We certainly need to see some MAJOR flooding type rains down yonder...and soon.

Out here in the western third of Texas, the drought is just as severe. The wildfire threat is looming large and ominous as it did in 2006 where record amounts of acreage went up in flames throughout the state. As far as stormchasing, not only will we struggle with large dewpoint depressions, the dryline will have a tendency to mix much further east towards the I-35 corridor. It's a vicious cycle as the drought compounds itself and shoves the precipitation potential further away. Although I will be working close to the town of Panhandle in the near future and thus closer to the dryline events, I'm afraid it will become a moot point.

Looking at the current upper air pattern here in February, it's as far from a typical pattern you'd ever expect to see. It reminds me to a degree like something you'd see in June with a strong and annoyingly persistent upper ridge anchored over central and northern Mexico. Storm systems come in from the west coast and eject out into the ridge and quickly weaken as well as take a trajectory more commonly seen in June across Colorado and Kansas. It is truly bizarre and I can't really remember seeing anything like this in February. It concerns me a great deal.

The crystal ball indicates that this pattern will try to slowly break down after about 10 days, but the signal of HOW it will break down is pretty obscure. One major issue is a strong upper system to form in the Mississippi Valley and dive into Florida as a potent upper level storm system. The result will be a MAJOR smackdown on the GOM region's moisture and scouring it all the way to Cuba and Yucatan. If the latest GFS ensembles' hints are correct, then a large east coast trough and upper cyclone may take shape. This does not bode well for allowing the GOM moisture pool to recover for most of March. Any storm systems advertised to make into West Texas will be totally moisture starved and thus continuing the drought cycle west of the I-35 corridor.

Like I said, that is the crystal ball forecast and certainly could end up being different beyond 10 days. But, the trend is there and is looking rather solid, so it bears watching. I hope it's completely wrong of course. :-) Stay tuned.

The other concern I have for 2009 is the hoards of people on the road. We saw a prime example of that last year in Kansas. From the pictures I've seen and the accounts I've read, it was the worst "chaser convergence" to date. The moderate and high risk days lure everybody and their cousins out into the middle of it. Sick days are used, classes skipped, babysitters hired, meetings cancelled, etc because the odds are generally the highest for seeing a tornado. Nobody misses it. :-)

Now, before anybody gets into a frenzy, it is certainly not my right nor anybody else's to claim a special right or privilege to pursue a storm and point a lens at it. It's easy to think we do and I sometimes fall into that line of thinking...it's human nature. But really when it comes down to it, a driver's license gives a person the right to do whatever they want to do in their vehicle within the law. I, however, reserve the right to complain and rant about it. LOL!

As such, the latter part of 2008 saw the "Stormchasers" series on Discovery hit the airwaves like a storm (pun intended). It was by far the best and most popular of the series. It's amazing how many non-chasers...ordinary citizens (or "muggles" as Shane Adams cleverly refers) who watched the series. I'll go so far as to say it will do for stormchasing today as "Twister" is allegedly to have done in the late 90's. Other things like increasing YouTube video content, TWC specials, and even live streaming video has reached a wider audience than at anytime in history. The main point is that stormchasing today is as popular as it ever was...at least in my opinion.

More tour groups have popped up and existing ones have expanded. Technology is the best it has ever been allowing anybody with a data card or iPhone to drive right up to a storm. The internet is in more homes, offices and schools as never before. The SPC forecasts have improved as well making forecasting purely an option. With their excellent MCDs, you can easily drive to the point of initiation. Watch the skies and radar and then head towards to first storm that pops up. Ducks in a barrel. True, there are situations where forecasting and data analysis can be critical, but usually not on moderate or high risk days.

So, along with the immense popularity along with much cheaper gas prices this year (at least it looks that way now), the "potential" number of people on the road pursuing storms will be the highest it's ever been. With the tanking economy however, the number won't be as high as it could be...but still very high. Combine this with the 2009 VORTEX2 efforts which will have at least 30 vehicles or more, and the circus atmosphere witnessed last year in Kansas can't help but be even worse. Big moderate and high risk days will be the worst...especially if only one or two storms end up being "the storm of the day".

At some point, one has to wonder if the government will start stepping in to try and curb this "phenomena". If enough emergency managers and law enforcement agencies start complaining or worse yet a major "incident" occurs, some level of effort will result. Whether it's more aggressive traffic enforcement or ordinances, regulations, or actual laws...it's coming. It's just a matter of time. The constitutionality of such efforts will of course be questioned, but that requires lengthy and expensive court battles to challenge and if lucky, overturned. Legislative action and enforcement in the name of "an emergency situation" are usually pretty solid...not withstanding the gestapo tactics of the Crane County Sheriff's department as we saw last year.

As for me, it is very likely that I will avoid moderate and high risk days altogether unless they are very close to home. When I do and encounter a big circus, I will be backing off from the base of the storm and settle for distant structure shots. As we've seen in the past couple of years, there will be at least 50 different photos and video of the same tornado popping up everywhere on the internet. :-) I'll be happy to wait for the "surprise" storms to pop up around the Panhandle...which is a big reason I moved out here and am so happy to finally plant some permanent roots.

Speaking of which, a delay in some contractual paperwork may jeopardize my start day next Monday. I may have to wait another week. Ugh!! I'm not happy about it since I was told I would start on the 2nd, but hey, what can you do? It won't kill me, but it certainly adds to the financial strain along with a desire to work again and be productive...especially with the cool opportunities that lay ahead.

One more thing too. It appears likely that I will be chasing for a local TV station this season. I am very excited about being part of their storm coverage team!! What a great way to enjoy my hobby and help warn the public at the same time and hopefully offset my expenses. More details on that later down the road.

So, that concludes one helluva blog post. I'm sure there are typos and other strange grammatical aberrations. So, put down your red pencils. LOL!!!