Model Convulsions
The 12z model runs today are turmoil beyond Friday and into next week. Without being so long winded as I usually am, there is a significant discrepency between the two main forecast models, the ECMWF and the GFS. This isn't surprising as it appears the atmosphere is undergoing a major transition. The question is...which model is right?
The GFS is more progressive and open with the major system approaching Sunday/Monday and "shallower" with the main energy traversing the CO/KS areas and clipping the Panhandle with the big show on Sunday. The ECMWF is much deeper and a little slower which if it verifies, Sunday will be pretty boring with the big action Monday. It would also be a more significant precipitation producer as well for the southern plains.
Quoting the experts at the Climate Prediction Center, they are weighing the GFS pretty heavily with some of the ECMWF blended in. So, Sunday would be the day for chasing around these parts.
My $0.02 would lean a little heavier towards the ECMWF for no other reason than the historic performances of both models regarding the arrival of a vigorous upper level storm system on the west coast. The GFS is notorious for being a little on the progressive and weaker side while the ECMWF has a better track record. I also looked at the spaghetti ensembles which show a very large spread beyond Friday.
Therefore, my forecast would be a slightly slower and deeper system than what the GFS is forecasting based on the 12Z run, but not quite as aggressive as the ECMWF....with a nod to this model's track record. With that, Sunday may end up being a late show in eastern New Mexico and Colorado spreading into far western parts of Texas and Kansas after dark. Monday may indeed be the better day.
Moisture quality looks to be a concern after all based on the forecast boundary layer trajectories across the Caribbean and GOM basin. It appears that this trajectory won't really become favorable until Monday as north winds will prevail across the eastern GOM down into the Yucatan area. So, if I'm correct with Sunday, there will be very little moisture to work with in the lower levels in the higher terrain of eastern NM and CO.
But, still LOTS of time to watch things unfold and you can bet that model runs will be spastic for the next few days. I may not be able to go on my little trip after all this week, so I might be around all week to watch this atmospheric drama unfold. I lead such an exciting life...LOL!!
The GFS is more progressive and open with the major system approaching Sunday/Monday and "shallower" with the main energy traversing the CO/KS areas and clipping the Panhandle with the big show on Sunday. The ECMWF is much deeper and a little slower which if it verifies, Sunday will be pretty boring with the big action Monday. It would also be a more significant precipitation producer as well for the southern plains.
Quoting the experts at the Climate Prediction Center, they are weighing the GFS pretty heavily with some of the ECMWF blended in. So, Sunday would be the day for chasing around these parts.
My $0.02 would lean a little heavier towards the ECMWF for no other reason than the historic performances of both models regarding the arrival of a vigorous upper level storm system on the west coast. The GFS is notorious for being a little on the progressive and weaker side while the ECMWF has a better track record. I also looked at the spaghetti ensembles which show a very large spread beyond Friday.
Therefore, my forecast would be a slightly slower and deeper system than what the GFS is forecasting based on the 12Z run, but not quite as aggressive as the ECMWF....with a nod to this model's track record. With that, Sunday may end up being a late show in eastern New Mexico and Colorado spreading into far western parts of Texas and Kansas after dark. Monday may indeed be the better day.
Moisture quality looks to be a concern after all based on the forecast boundary layer trajectories across the Caribbean and GOM basin. It appears that this trajectory won't really become favorable until Monday as north winds will prevail across the eastern GOM down into the Yucatan area. So, if I'm correct with Sunday, there will be very little moisture to work with in the lower levels in the higher terrain of eastern NM and CO.
But, still LOTS of time to watch things unfold and you can bet that model runs will be spastic for the next few days. I may not be able to go on my little trip after all this week, so I might be around all week to watch this atmospheric drama unfold. I lead such an exciting life...LOL!!
posted by Steve Miller TX at 3/17/2009 04:59:00 PM
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