Upcoming Chase Potential & Other Stuff
There is an approaching storm system that is on everybody's radar for this weekend. For me personally, I think the best I can hope for is something erupting along the dryline along the TX/OK border east of Shamrock, TX. However, will it be worth chasing? I have serious doubts because of the moisture return. Here is something I posted on Stormtrack about it:
I believe the big issue will be quality of moisture return and resultant dewpoint depressions. Take a look at current surface obs throughout the GOM and Caribbean. You will see 50's from Cuba to the Yucatan with even lower 40's in the eastern GOM.
Then, take a look at the upper soundings down in that region.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/
You'll see that what moisture there is down there, it is relatively shallow. Generally, 800/850mb and above is very dry. I just don't see any appreciable moisture to work with. Therefore, I am very pessimistic with current model forecast moisture profiles. I think there will be enough to support storms for any that are able to bust the cap, but will be linear and/or high based stuff. I really think the actual dewpoints for Saturday will be upper 40's to 50F by initiation time if it sets up in far W OK.
With current and forecast temperatures in W TX into W OK nearing 90F, this will only make the dewpoint depressions that much greater. I expect to see 25-30F spreads at the very least until storms get east of the I-35 corridor. Another consideration is that with any veered 850mb flow, all of this hot, bone-dry desert air in the W portions of TX will spread over the area of initiation along the dryline and produce a helluva cap as well as further scouring out moisture with afternoon mixing.
That is my $0.02 crystal ball prognostication. :-)
It doesn't help either that central Texas to the coast are experiencing a very severe drought. That is an important evapotranspiration source region as we get later into the season.It is going to take awhile to recover the GOM basin and the Caribbean to the point of adequate moisture quality along and west of the I-35 corridor. Repeat of 2006?
So, as of right now, I'm not too excited with the prospects. I'm content to be patient and wait a few weeks...IF that is long enough to get some decent moisture return with some recovery in the GOM region.
On the job front, my start date has been pushed back a couple of weeks. Ugh. At least I have a formal offer letter in hand with a firm start date. So, I can sleep at night now. :-) Hopefully I can take advantage of the extra time off for some projects and perhaps some chasing.
Last Saturday, I took my niece to the Lubbock Severe Weather Awarness event. It was very interesting speaking with the Texas Tech guys about their new K-band mobile radar. It and a twin which is under construction will be participating with the VORTEX2 project later this spring. I also had a great discussion with them regarding their hurricane data from Ike last summer. Fascinating stuff. I was also lucky enough to win a Midland weather radio! David Drummond has an excellent blog about it. CHECK IT OUT.
I also met up with David Drummond and Steve Douglass for the Imax presentation of an old documentary called "Stormchasers". I was surprised to see Steve sitting right in front of me in the theater. What are the odds? LOL!!! I was embarassed that I didn't immediately recognize him. I hope Alzheimer's isn't setting in early. ;-)
I had never seen the film before, but was kinda mediocre except for the hurricane hunters flying into the eye and Howie Bluestein's crew intercepting a tornado. I also liked the small parts of a NOAA/NCAR glider probing updrafts. Those scenes alone were worth the price of admission. SDS therapy indeed!!!
I did take advantage of the great weather we've been having for a recent trip to a big park with lots of waterfowl and then Amarillo Zoo. Yep, we do have one. It's small, but pretty good for a city the size of Amarillo. The big attraction are the big cats. African lions, black panther, bengal tiger, bobcats and a Serval. Here are a few pics:
Nothing like some bread being tossed out to draw a crowd.
A Canadian Goose. They are thick down here in Amarillo and Lubbock during the winter. Any of the city ponds will have hundreds of them.
A male Wood Duck.
This male African Lion eyes my photography efforts. The faint blurriness is actually part of the cyclone fence. I really worked with the field of depth to almost blur it out completely.
A lioness yawns and relaxes in the late February sun.
This curious Bobcat looks me over carefully.
Black Panther.
Serval. This small cat is pretty much an overgrown house cat. This fella played with the box just like my cat would. Interestingly, some people have bred these with a house cat to create a hybrid.
I believe the big issue will be quality of moisture return and resultant dewpoint depressions. Take a look at current surface obs throughout the GOM and Caribbean. You will see 50's from Cuba to the Yucatan with even lower 40's in the eastern GOM.
Then, take a look at the upper soundings down in that region.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/
You'll see that what moisture there is down there, it is relatively shallow. Generally, 800/850mb and above is very dry. I just don't see any appreciable moisture to work with. Therefore, I am very pessimistic with current model forecast moisture profiles. I think there will be enough to support storms for any that are able to bust the cap, but will be linear and/or high based stuff. I really think the actual dewpoints for Saturday will be upper 40's to 50F by initiation time if it sets up in far W OK.
With current and forecast temperatures in W TX into W OK nearing 90F, this will only make the dewpoint depressions that much greater. I expect to see 25-30F spreads at the very least until storms get east of the I-35 corridor. Another consideration is that with any veered 850mb flow, all of this hot, bone-dry desert air in the W portions of TX will spread over the area of initiation along the dryline and produce a helluva cap as well as further scouring out moisture with afternoon mixing.
That is my $0.02 crystal ball prognostication. :-)
It doesn't help either that central Texas to the coast are experiencing a very severe drought. That is an important evapotranspiration source region as we get later into the season.It is going to take awhile to recover the GOM basin and the Caribbean to the point of adequate moisture quality along and west of the I-35 corridor. Repeat of 2006?
So, as of right now, I'm not too excited with the prospects. I'm content to be patient and wait a few weeks...IF that is long enough to get some decent moisture return with some recovery in the GOM region.
On the job front, my start date has been pushed back a couple of weeks. Ugh. At least I have a formal offer letter in hand with a firm start date. So, I can sleep at night now. :-) Hopefully I can take advantage of the extra time off for some projects and perhaps some chasing.
Last Saturday, I took my niece to the Lubbock Severe Weather Awarness event. It was very interesting speaking with the Texas Tech guys about their new K-band mobile radar. It and a twin which is under construction will be participating with the VORTEX2 project later this spring. I also had a great discussion with them regarding their hurricane data from Ike last summer. Fascinating stuff. I was also lucky enough to win a Midland weather radio! David Drummond has an excellent blog about it. CHECK IT OUT.
I also met up with David Drummond and Steve Douglass for the Imax presentation of an old documentary called "Stormchasers". I was surprised to see Steve sitting right in front of me in the theater. What are the odds? LOL!!! I was embarassed that I didn't immediately recognize him. I hope Alzheimer's isn't setting in early. ;-)
I had never seen the film before, but was kinda mediocre except for the hurricane hunters flying into the eye and Howie Bluestein's crew intercepting a tornado. I also liked the small parts of a NOAA/NCAR glider probing updrafts. Those scenes alone were worth the price of admission. SDS therapy indeed!!!
I did take advantage of the great weather we've been having for a recent trip to a big park with lots of waterfowl and then Amarillo Zoo. Yep, we do have one. It's small, but pretty good for a city the size of Amarillo. The big attraction are the big cats. African lions, black panther, bengal tiger, bobcats and a Serval. Here are a few pics:
Nothing like some bread being tossed out to draw a crowd.
A Canadian Goose. They are thick down here in Amarillo and Lubbock during the winter. Any of the city ponds will have hundreds of them.
A male Wood Duck.
This male African Lion eyes my photography efforts. The faint blurriness is actually part of the cyclone fence. I really worked with the field of depth to almost blur it out completely.
A lioness yawns and relaxes in the late February sun.
This curious Bobcat looks me over carefully.
Black Panther.
Serval. This small cat is pretty much an overgrown house cat. This fella played with the box just like my cat would. Interestingly, some people have bred these with a house cat to create a hybrid.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 3/04/2009 05:46:00 PM
2 Comments:
I used to know people that had servals. Damn things would sit on top of the refrigerator and bat at you. Trust me, you didn't want to get hit.
Nice photos there my friend. I've never been to the zoo here. I guess it might be time for a trip, now that I see what it has to offer.
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